Quote:
Originally Posted by kingal3x
- Hero is TAG relative to the Villains but far from a nit. Hero and Villain 1 know each others' games pretty well. Villain 1 and Villain 2 know each others' games (I assume from their friendly chat) and Villain 2 and Hero only have a couple of hours of representative history.
- Villain 1 is a good LAG pro.
- Villain 2 is a recreational loose player (very loose and passive pre). Doesn't ever 3bet preflop. Can get aggressive on the river, but still pretty passive and loose on this street too.
Hero has J10 off suit on the Button and posted a 25 Mississippi Straddle. Blinds are 5/10, stacks are 7k effective.
Villain 1 makes it 100 from MP, Villain 2 calls from MP+1, another passive player Folds K8 off suit, accidently exposing his cards and Hero Calls the remaining 75.
Flop - 8 9 9 rainbow - Pot = 315
Villain 1 C-Bets 100, Villain 2 Calls and Hero makes it 375. Villain 1 Folds and Villain 2 Calls.
Turn - 8 9 9 Q - Pot = 1,165
Villain 2 Check/Calls Hero's 600 Bet.
River - 8 9 9 Q K - Pot = 2,365
Villain 2 Donks 1,800. Given the exposed K8 that was folded preflop I'm pretty sure this is a snap call, but would it be a snap had that hand not been exposed?
Interesting hand, thanks for posting.
So if villain can get aggressive on the river, he can have a lot of 9x which he wants to get value from. If he's very loose pre, hands he has which you beat could include:
T9, J9, A9 suited and os. This makes for 6+6+8= 20 combos which you theoretically beat. Likely less if you think calling with T9o/J9o is too loose for him to call most of the time. So let's make it just 16 combos which you beat.
It's just possible but unlikely that he has AA, KQ, AKs, AQ which he is randomly donking here (you did say he was aggro on the river). Let's add another few combos here incase he does this, make it 22 combos.
It's hard for him to have any draws here which missed since it's a rainbow board and 67 is unlikely to call pre. Therefore his worst hand is likely to be 3 of a kind or the same straight as you. JTo makes for 9 combos where you split the pot.
Hands which have you beat are
89, Q9, K9, 88, 99, QQ, KK (assuming he has high pockets since you said he was passive pre). This makes for 6+6+6+1+1+1+1. This makes for 22 combos which beat you.
In summary, 22 combos which you beat, 22 which beat you and 9 where you split the pot.
So, obviously this is going to be a very close spot and is going to depend highly on his type of aggression on the river which you mentioned.
Does he bet river big like this with semi good hands for thin value or does he just lead river in general when he thinks he has the best hand? Does he ever bluff the river outright? If he ever bluffs or often leads with semi good hands, I'd go with a call. If not, then fold.