Quote:
Originally Posted by Colombo
Hand 1 - I think I'd just fold the flop. Jacks are a huge part of his range here considering he's betting OOP 5-handed. Your reverse implied odds are terrible since you aren't even drawing to the nut straight. I think the turn is a definite fold.
Hand 2 - This is probably one of the worst hands you could choose to bluff with (other than QsJs and AsQx). You just picked up some non-negligible showdown value, since many hands like 66-JJ that could x/call 2 streets and fold to the triple barrel will now just lose anyway. By holding the Qs, you also block many flush draws that might x/call 2 streets and fold the river, like AQs, QJs, QTs, Q9s.
What's your value range on the river anyway? KK+ and AK? Gotta figure you're checking back QQ on most turns, and AK could very well be too thin of a value bet with this line. I don't think you need many bluffs in your range here at all. You can probably get away with bluffing some combos of A2s and A4s without the spades (if you raise those pre), and 22-66.
Hand 1:
Agreed for the most part. I think the only reason I called the flop at that point was frustration, combined with my response up above. The deck had been so cold to me on saturday, it had been a while since variance had swung so hard.
Hand 2: The fact that I have showdown value here, imo actually makes it more valuable for me to bet. If she did have an underpair, whats to stop her from making a hero call with it? If she called as light as K2, a hero call with an underpair is DEF not out of the question. I do see your point about the Qs now, however, considering it blocks her from having a weak queen to call me down with in this spot. But the way the hand is p;layed, she shouldn't have too many Qs in this spot anyway, probably folding the turn.
And conversely, if she had exactly what I thought she did, a weak K, the only way I win is by betting. It occured to me that not only was it highly unlikely now for her to have KQ, it was completely unlikely for her to have any strong King at all the way it was played. AK-K10 she was raising preflop, she was pretty aggressive. I could easiliy have AA, KQ, AK, and since my reputation was opening wide, even A5, 65, 54 suited in this spot wouldn't be completely out of the question. With the sticky flush draw out there, QQ is not completely out of the question either, though KK is. I'd probably want to extract more value with that hand.
This was my complete analysis of that one. If there's something wrong with that, I'm DEFINITELY opening to listening and discussing. I don't think I was the best player at that table and I definitely want to see what I can fix.