Hello, this is my first post, so sorry if the format is bad.
6-Handed $3/6; $800 effective.
Hero is dealt Q
Q
on the Button.
UTG Player raises to $15. (VPIP 9%, PFR 9%, Steal 12%, 3B 0% after 80 hands)
Folds around to Hero.
Hero raises to $45.
Folds back over to UTG Player.
Player calls.
Flop is A
Q
3
Player checks.
Hero bets $55.
Player calls.
Turn is 7
Player checks.
Hero bets $170.
Player calls.
River is 8
Player checks.
Hero bets $530.
Player calls.
Showdown:
Hero: Q
Q
for Three of a Kind Queens
Player: A
A
for Three of a Kind Aces
Is shoving the river here too thin? The player was playing very tight and very passive, and there were no conceivable draws that warranted both a call on the flop and river.
I was 3-betting approx. 11% of hands, and he was calling 3-bets (none were against me) 50% of the time, with a sample size of 2.
Reviewing this hand, I'm thinking that shoving here may be too thin, given that there was only one combination of AQ suited left in the deck, which is probably the only hand I get value from on the river. There is a possibility that he has kings, but given his play style, I do not believe he would ever call three streets with an ace on the board.
Is this a spot where value betting middle set on an unsuited, unconnected board actually bad, or am I just going crazy?