ya, was so f high when i wrote this, but still, 150 ds can def heppend.
I like sparky post the most, it says everything.

I Have played with you before and felt the same way about ACR.. Especially in HU PLO where random massive fish calling with 7775 pre would run up stacks on me daily. At one point I was 36 buyins under ev with a mix of 6 max NL and HU plo in 10k hand stretch, things eventually got better. I think this site just seems sketchy cause it has the most tilting piece of crap software known to man. If I played as much as you I would need to buy a new computer every 2 months but im a big tilter in general.

Are you sure it's not a problem with the way the program is calculating EV? Go look at individual hands and see what it says.

I play on ipoker and PT4 most definitely miscalculates EV. The gap between my earnings and ev gradually gets bigger and bigger. Mine actually says I run above EV. Guessing it could do the same thing in the opposite way depending on the site or your style of play.

Just wondering.. why is that majority of players is running bellow ev? Is it
a) becouse ppl show graphs and whine mostly when they run bad?
b) becouse ev is somehow miscalculated or interpreted wrong?
c) its rigggged?
So much this lol.

I honestly feel that ev is either miscalculated or interpreted wrong like you said or that sites can skew winning players win % in favor of recreational players.

Is there ever any threads from 2+2ers bragging about running 100-200BI above ev? Not that I've seen...some1 correct me if I'm wrong.

This is a legit discussion and I wish there was a way to see how many people run below or above ev and post it somewhere. It's just very odd to me that all winning players talk about running below ev (myself included) for years. Either that or ev is being terribly miscalculated by the masses.

I ran above ev last year, about 15 buyins. Not much for a whole year but it's above ev.

im running about 6k below EV this year.. but im not sure how HEM2 calculates EV.. they dont take into account coolers. like.. AIPF with KK is an plus EV spot.. but when they have AA everytime it will say -EV.. maybe i dont truly understand what its supposed to mean.. clarification?

I've been shown a couple of 100 and 200 buy in above EV graphs over the years, they tend to never get posted in public though. If I went through my database I'm sure I could find multiple graphs where I was 50 buy ins+ above EV can't remember a stage where I was over a 100 but probably came pretty close at least once early in my career. People are much happier moaning about running bad, than showing off when they run good.

I know one very well known stars guy who ran better than anything I hv ever seen before or since, more than doubled his winrate over a year sample and he is known for playing a ton of hands.

To be blunt, you seem to mis-understand EV. The way you are talking implies you think EV is actually 'G-bucks'.

EV calculates your expected value in specific situations, EV over a small sample is ever so slightly more accurate than observed winrate over said sample. Over very large samples however it is a much better indicator of true winrate than observed winrate is. Roughly it's about 10% more accurate than observed winrate I believe.

If anybody shows me a graph of less than a million hands I just smile and carry on with my life.

^^^it's gotta be KTofclubs




and obviously there is a huge sample bias regarding lack of above EV graphs.

screen ps^^

managed to get another 10 buy in below ev scince this post.
http://s66.photobucket.com/user/ericontilt/media/MyCurrencyWoninUSDoverHandsPlayed22_zps824665cc.pn g.html?filters[user]=139906354&filters[recent]=1&sort=1&o=0

I want to go for the record and get 300 below ev.
Thank god for live poker.

Have you looked how it calculated hands in big pots? Your gap seems to be getting bigger and bigger just like mine does.

Here is a hand I pulled from ACR out of poker tracker.

Winning Poker Network - $4 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BB): $505.30
UTG: $400.00
MP: $289.46
CO: $400.00
BTN: $638.56
SB: $797.80

SB posts SB $2.00, Hero posts BB $4.00

Pre Flop: (pot: $6.00) Hero has A A

fold, fold, CO raises to $8.00, BTN calls $8.00, fold, Hero raises to $30.00, CO calls $22.00, BTN calls $22.00

Flop: ($92.00, 3 players) 3 5 T
Hero bets $88.50, CO calls $88.50, BTN calls $88.50

Turn: ($357.50, 3 players) 2
Hero bets $354.00, fold, BTN raises to $520.06 and is all-in, Hero calls $32.80 and is all-in

River: ($1131.10, 2 players) 5

Hero shows A A (Two Pair, Aces and Fives) (Pre 84%, Flop 82%, Turn 89%)
BTN shows T Q (Two Pair, Tens and Fives) (Pre 16%, Flop 18%, Turn 11%)
Hero wins $1,127.60


As you can see it gives hero 89% equity to win the hand when it gets all-in on the turn. However, hero is actually 95% to win the hand. So this is why hero appears to be running above equity. Now the player who lost the hand will appear to be running extra under equity, because he was given too much equity. Certain style's of play will then dictate if you appear to be running above or below equity.

I dont need to look at the gap, i know the hands im loosing with.
I cant remember last time i win a flip, and seem to win about 50% of my 80/20s, brick every combo draw, while no one missed on me in 6 month.

on the hand above, aa is actually 88.64 to win the hand.
Im not sure where you getting your odds from

cardplayer and pokernews calculators (are they wrong?). Does a 2 outer on river really have 11% equity?

its a 5 outer
2 10s
3 qs

That's where poker tacker is ****ing up because a Q is no good because the board is paired with 5's.

the board pair with 5 on the river.
on the river you have 100% equity

ah yes, long day.. looks like I picked a bad example.. i'll see if I can find something else

rofl. you picked an example that shows HM calculating perfectly.

I've also had periods of doubt when I suspected that the software would recognize "bad plays" and increase the win% for such cases in order to keep the fish in the game.

However, it's a pretty ridiculous idea when you think about it.

With so many people playing poker, some people are bound to run increadibly bad. You just happen to be one of them.

ur right, its ridiculous for a poker room to want to keep the fish in the game longer and/or not blow his sportsbetting roll against 5 regs at a poker table...

hahaha laughing really hard at the HEM example with the paired river

Man, running 150 buyins below equity is darn scary. For occasional players like me I can't even face how long a downswing that would equate to, time-wise.

Yeah I don't even want to think about it - I've been about 50-60 below twice, I dunno how I would have coped if it had gotten much worse.