10/10, 3K effective. CO makes it 40, button call, I make it 210 in BB with 1010, both pros call.

Flop 10h Jh 3c
I bet 240, both call
Turn 4h
check, check, bet 780, I call, fold.
River Jd.
Check or ship?

Any info on your opponents?

Well it would suck if he checked back so that's a reason not to, but if he has what we think he has and he sees you check the river, he might go for a value bet. But with all the action on the previous two streets, theres a good chance he thinks that all you have at this point are full houses seeing as AJ, and KQo is almost certainly folding the turn, or should be anyway.

It's really a player dependant call, does he go for thin value/overplay his hands? If you shove is he prone to hero calls? Those types of questions are what you need to ask yourself to help you lean towards the right play

Really tough spot. Obviously depends on villain tendencies but assuming we don't know that, it's really close. Honestly, we might just not get paid either way.

Villain is just so clearly repping a flush with his turn bet. For him not to have a flush, he'd have to be turning a hand like AT with a heart into a bluff or betting something like KQ with a heart into two players. And then when we x/call we almost certainly have a set or maybe AJ/overpair with a heart.

So when we get to river, if we lead jam, it's just so hard for us to have a bluff here. We'd have to be turning a hand like AJ or an overpair into a bluff and assuming Villain can fold a flush or was bluffing turn into 2 players. It's a ballsy move that so few players are making that Villain really should be folding his flushes. But on the other hand, if we check, Villain should really know that his flush is face up and we're just never calling with a hand worse than a flush and could be trapping a boat so he should check back.

I guess I lean towards jamming because it's just so hard to fold a flush and I'd rather bet on Villain making a bad call getting great odds than making a super thin value bet. But I'm guessing we don't get another dime either way against a strong player.

I like check/jam. That way your opponent could rationalize you having AA or something and go for thin value. Also he can bluff you if he was getting out of line.

I don't think we're ever taking the x/c turn open jam river line with the nut flush OOP, so we can't rep Ahx hands with that line as bluffs. That means we basically have no bluffs and should only get folds from flushes.

x/c x/jam is the only way we have a remote chance of getting stacks in. We'll at least get another bet a decent amount of the time since we can definitely have hands like QQ-AA with a heart or the few combos of AhJ/etc that flushes will want to get value from.

There are so few boat combos and I honestly think checking back for him would be a losing play if he has a flush.

Not saying I disagree with you, but to play devil's advocate, why can't we x/call Ahx hands and jam river to rep a boat? It's not like we get to river with that many Ahx hands and it would actually be a pretty nice play to x/call turn with AhAx and turn it into a bluff against a thinking player to get weaker flushes to fold.

It would be a ballsy play, and if I were Villain I wouldn't expect it, but it would be interesting.

Are people really calling down with QQ-AA/AJ here though? Villain has so few bluffs in his range that those hands should really find a fold.

Idk though, maybe some players do call here and Villain will go for it.

But I think x/calling QQ-AA/AJ in this spot would be just as bad as Villain calling with a flush if we lead jam, so I guess it comes down to whether we want to bet on Villain making a mistake or Villain assuming we will make a mistake.

There are just so few boat combos and we have all QQ-AA and some Jx combos. Our range is so incredibly heavily weighted towards hands that flushes beat and would want to vbet against hoping to get hero'd due to blocker reasons.

I get what your saying and in general you're right and we should be looking to put our opponents into spots where they are likely to make mistakes, but from a pure EV perspective, x/shipping will earn us the most money just due to the way the board ran out and our 3b range OOP.

Would it be that unreasonable to check/fold QQ-AA on the turn without a blocker? I mean how often is Villain betting into 2 people in this spot with anything less than a flush. I mean maybe the naked Ah, but how many combos can he have with the naked Ah that make sense. I guess maybe like a 98 or KQ

That would be very tight and very exploitable. If we are only continuing with the few combos of JJ/TT here when we check turn, we can get floated incredibly lightly OTF.

Thoughts?

Not sure I agree when it's a multiway, 3bet pot. Even if we overfold the turn, the 3rd player in the pot makes it a lot harder for Villain to float light. It's not like we're cbetting very much air on this flop.

x/folding QQ/KK without a heart does feel weak, but it feels like we're just not good often enough to x/call on this runout. Probably bet/folding those hands instead.

So back to the original hand, I just think it's very hard for us to have a hand on river that Villain can get value from.

What happens on this river and brick rivers when we bet turn and get called?

Also, if you are betting those hands OTT, then you should be betting flushes too, correct? So when we check (as played by OP), we don't have flushes and we don't have single heart hands. Therefore, we do not have bluffs when we open rip river and will get a fold from smaller flushes (edit: maybe all flushes).

I understand your thinking of hoping our opponent makes a mistake instead of hoping that they hope that we make a mistake, but when we check turn and river we can and should have all overpairs and some Jacks and will get money a higher % of the time since our range is so incredibly tiny if we x/c turn open jam river.

I think we x/fold those rivers with a hand like QQ-AA. Sucks but a naked overpair just isn't a very strong holding on this board.

And yes we're betting flushes. But I do think we have single heart hands. I would x/call AJ/QQ+ with a single heart, and we could turn those into bluffs, although I think villain would correctly not think that's likely. But a lot of players just won't fold flushes here. Your point about there just not being many boat combos equally applies when we lead jam.

But like I said, I'm not saying you're definitely wrong. I'm just saying that I see both sides, and to me you could argue either way.

I agree with poloplaya1414 with everything. He just doesnt have many bluffs. What hands does he not 3-bet, but calls 3-bet, and hits this board? And with the Jack river, what hands is he getting value from?
I shipped and he folded 78hh face up.

Yeah tough result, but I still doubt you're getting paid if you check either. Hard to say.

And honestly, if we're not getting paid when we hit this river, it begs the question of whether the turn x/call is profitable. Maybe turn is a bet/fold?

Hand's just a good example of why playing this deep OOP just sucks. Even when we hit a boat against a flush, which is the perfect runout for us, we have a hard time getting stacks in. We probably have to 3bet even larger preflop to compensate and definitely bet the flop larger. PSB to set up the turn jam probably the move.

Check seems standard on river, villain can value bet many hands AND try and turn others into a bluff, it should be much more profitable than betting yourself

I also prefer betting turn

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

Thinking about this more and I think if both players are playing optimally, the move would be to bet. The argument is this:

Villain’s range is capped. It’s pretty much impossible for him to have a boat given the line he’s taken. He predominantly has flushes here with maybe a few bluffs, but also unlikely since it’s also hard for him to have many hands with a naked heart given the line he took.

If we assume Villain has mostly flushes, our range relative to Villain’s is quite polarized. Unlike Villain, we easily have boats in our range. But we could also have plenty of hands weaker than flushes.

Generally, when you have a polarized, uncapped range vs a merged, capped range, the former should be doing the betting and the later really should not be. But the rub is whether Villain realizes that because it’s rare for the player with the initiative to be the one with the capped range.

All of this is to say that I still don’t know what the right answer is for when we have boats, but if we had lead jammed with QQ-AA here it would’ve been a sick bluff.

This thread has been very interesting thus far.

I think BU player has to be betting turn with a lot more than just flushes though, because then we can comfortably over fold. I think a key point is that we can have weaker holdings and need to bluff catch some of the time. Granted, the BU player never has a boat on the river. When he has the nut flush and jams the river he is targeting the bluff catchers and isn't going to worry about the boat.

While it is correct that BU player is technically capped he doesn't have to worry since there is only a little more than a pot sized bet on the river. If we are playing even deeper stacked, then perhaps BU player should include some sets in his range to protect himself in spots such as this one.


Interestingly enough, if BU player only bets turn with exclusively flushes and we plan on taking a jam river line. Then we are getting 36.7% odds on a call with TT which will not boat up enough for the turn call to be profitable on hitting boats alone. This means we have to include some bluff hands that will give incentive for BU player to call off sometimes when we hit the boat. This makes TT profitable, but these bluff candidates for boated rivers are calling an expensive turn bet. When we miss we will lose too much money to justify having these bluff hands, unless the bluff candidates are flushes themselves.

This means on the river we bluff with a percentage of our weakest flushes when it boats. When it misses I'm assuming we go into check/call mode, but if we were to still jam then TT would be the best bluff candidate since it would have no showdown value.

I throw a thin value bet out, might get a flush to call. If hes got jacks or J10 I say nice hand man and reload. I dont think its a complex as some make it.

What happened in the hand?

@DannyAIC please don't quote the original post when replying

Flop: It's clearly fine, but I don't like 1/3 3way on this texture.

I feel you are missing value from tons of draws and Jx by not going bigger. The hands you get extra calls from with this size, like 99h or Ac5c, they just don't call 3way anyway I believe. And you hardly ever get bluff raised by AQ or A3, or get thin value raised by AJ, in my opinion. So betting bigger is just better.

Could also check flop. Most important factor there is how stabby they are on flop and turn. Checking can work wonderfully in live games where people bet 66 when checked to twice, but can also work terribly when someone is randomly mega passive. I'd consider it but default bet should be best.

Turn: I think it's fine as well. But I'd consider betting. 3way when checked to people don't bet 98, KQ, AQ with a heart, or Jx, too often. So when facing a bet you're doing pretty badly, and when it checks around you really wish you'd have bet. Maybe just bet it 1/3 again, and get them to reluctantly call Jx/98/KQ stuff. Or even 1/2 if you think they are loose.

River: I think check is very standard. Sure, you are slightly stronger on the nut side, but you still usually have bluffcatchers, like Jx/overpairs/AKhi, so you should range check.

Can jam be better? Only if he checks back a flush I think. Which would be a terrible check back imo. So nah, I can't see donk jam being best in practice.

^^^^What hands pay off a flush here? If we have AJ even with the Ah on river, are we calling a jam? Didn’t you also say that Villain isn’t betting 98/KQ very often? If that’s the case, what are we beating when Villain jams river?