Hello Folks,

Live 2/5 NL game. Villain and I have played together many times -- he plays for a living, and is very TAG; he is not afraid to bet or call big even if he thinks he is behind. I do not play for a living, and also am reasonably tight; while I am willing to bet big if I think I have the best hand, I am not nearly as willing to make huge hero calls (I have made them, but it's not my preferred way of playing.)

In this hand, he is in the BB, and I am in the hijack.

I started the hand with around $1,400 -- he has me covered.

Preflop: Two limpers, I raise to $35 with Ks Kd. Button calls, villain three-bets to $115, I call, button folds.

Flop: Ts 6s 4c

He checks, I bet $125, he instantly moves all-in.

Analysis please.

I'll start by saying that I would always 4bet your hand.

As for flop...
There are always two points of view for a spot like this. The first is very technical - and from that point of view KK is strong enough to stackoff here, no questions asked - with 7x pot behind you can even just be ahead of something like QQ or JJ, and folding this high up in your range would lead to a massive overfold.

The next point of view is to try and "soul-read" villain's range, which you could certainly do better than any of us. Are you sure his range is sets and combo-draws? Then fold. Could he have a bunch of nutflushdraws or JJ-QQ, but never play a set or AA like this - call. Here you are the one who should know the situation better than us - if you feel confident you understand his tendencies and can put him on a range, the hand becomes a lot simpler to analyze.

Thanks for the response.

The problem I face here is that he definitely is capable of taking this line with AA, a set of tens (I did not reasonably think he has 66 or 44 in his hand), or a nut-flush draw, and he knows that I am tight enough so that when I call his three-bet preflop, there really are only a few hands I can have -- KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 99, AK-suited, and sometimes 88 (I can't have AA because I would have four-bet that hand). He also knows that I would bet with any of my holdings when he checks on a flop that looks like that.

The point here is that against me, he knows that if a CRAI like this looks too fishy, I will nearly always bite with the overpair. As mentioned in the OP, he plays for a living -- he is a thinking player, and is very good at making plays based upon his predictions of how his opponents will react.

In my mind, it was around 55% to 65% chance that he had AA, a set of tens, or AQs for the nut-flush draw (I had the Ks); it was about a 25% to 35% chance that he had JJ or QQ; there was about a 10% chance he had AT or a bluff.

Further thoughts are encouraged.

Why did you decide to bet the flop and why did you choose the sizing you did?

Don't read this as me thinking the flop bet is wrong I just want to get your view of it.

Also what is villain's overall 3 bet range here? What is villain's normal 3 bet strategy vs you?

Good questions -- will answer them with my thought-processes as the hand was progressing.

So far, Sirrybob is the only person who believes it was a mistake to not four-bet preflop.

Because Villain is a cerebral player who plays for a living, I felt that flatting in position would help to disguise the strength of my hand while keeping him OOP for the remainder of the hand (he is good enough to fold JJ and QQ to me for a four-bet preflop and, if he has AA, then a four-bet there does nothing except get us all-in preflop).

So that's why I flatted his three-bet preflop.

A bet of $125 on the flop was just under half-pot (after the rake and the bad-beat drop, there was $268 in the pot as we headed to the flop). I was not deep enough so that a full-pot bet on the flop did not almost pot-commit me, and a half-pot bet would still signal that my hand was strong enough to be o.k.; also, a half-pot bet was not giving him great odds to peel another card in case he was drawing to spades (because he knows I can fold the overpair if the third spade hits the turn... although, if it's the Ace of spades on the turn, I would then be drawing to nut-spades, which might make things interesting).

The last thing I expected from him was a CRAI, and the fact that that's exactly what he did really sent me into the tank.

As mentioned, he knows I'm never cold-calling his three-bet preflop without a real hand, and so he also knows that unless I called him at the bottom end of my range, that flop did not hurt me (and maybe even helped if I have TT). Therefore, I believed that unless he already had me beaten, then the best he really should be able to do is check-call that flop because he knows that if I believe I am ahead, I am definitely willing to stack-off in that spot; given our lengthy history of having played against each other, my mind told me that the only way he check-raises that hard there is if he believes he is winning and wants to turn his hand into a bluff.

While he has a very wide three-bet range, he also is good enough to know that when I cold-call like that preflop, the alarm bells are going off in his head, and so unless he decided to try something funky (which, admittedly, is possible), his line of play against me should have adjusted instantly to account for the fact that I had to have been holding something that could take that flop without much fear.

Hence, when he CRAI there, it tells me that he is trying to get me to bite with the overpair by making his play look too fishy.

Does that make sense?

If you are 4-betting so tight this player folds QQ/JJ here you should definitely widen your 4 bet range. You can choose how you do that if you want to balance that or just start bluffing more.

Do you think being this tight preflop has implications on how villain sees you post flop? Is he likely to bluff you more because he thinks you're so tight and your range is so predictable he can bluff you more?

The idea that villain knows you flat strong here but flatting disguises your hand seems like a logical contradiction to me. Just pointing it out as obviously you know villain/in game dynamics better than I do.

What does villain do with QQ/JJ otf? His he cbetting an over pair here? Is he always checking to you? Is it mixed?

I would get rid of the idea that you "have to committ" after a certain SPR and just think about what is the best betsize for my range and particular hand in this moment. What is my bet trying target in villain's range? What bet size maximizes my overall EV?

Do you think this makes villain more likely to flat and bluff you on spade turns instead of bluffing you outright on the flop?

Based on your description of villain and dynamic it's hard to tell. On one hand it sounds like villain should just try to get it in vs you when he's ahead and not bluff you very much because your range is so strong.

On the other hand some of the other information you provided would lead me to believe that you fold more regularly than your tight/strong range should fold and maybe villain thinks this translate to post flop as well.

What good does c/calling JJ do for him? Are you ever betting 99-88 there?

If you read my earlier posts in this thread, some of your questions will be answered -- for example, I can be holding anything down to 88 and, if he checks on that flop, I will bet 100% of the time; because I could be holding anything down to 88, I believe flatting preflop does disguise the strength of my hand because, even though he knows I have a real hand at that point, the only one he can exclude is AA (because I will four-bet that every time).

Yes, I do think that how he sees me has implications for how he plays against me, which is why his CRAI froze me in my tracks -- he knows that I will call if I believe my kings are good, and so shipping nearly $1,100 on a check-raise over a half-pot bet makes it look like he simply doesn't want a call... which, in my head, meant that he was looking for me to bite with an overpair, and was willing to risk that I did not have TT, which was the only hand he could reasonably worry about if he had what I believe he had (AA).

Yes, it is possible that I fold too much, and I need to work on that part of my game. Also, against more than 90% of the world, I probably make this call... but against a thinking player with whom I have much history, I felt there was a better than 60% chance that he was holding AA in this situation.

You said earlier that he "knows" you can't have AA because you would have 4-bet. Since you didn't 4-bet KK your 4-bet range is exactly AA. You have also given a precise read of your call range, but you have a much less precise read on his 3-bet range.

Given the way you have defined your range, and your reasoning for your "hero fold" of KK, what is your call range here? Zero. If you are folding your entire call range to his entire 3-bet range it seems to me you have made yourself highly exploitable in big hands. If he is a good thinking player you are over-estimating his AA probability, and you have to call here.

I did not say that I won't 4-bet preflop with anything except AA, it's just that I will always 4-bet preflop with AA. There is a difference, but the fact that I did not reraise preflop means that I cannot have AA there.

After thinking about the hand and after reading the comments here, I have realized that:

1. I need to widen my range for reraising preflop;

2. Even if he did have AA, my fold of KK there was incorrect.

Your right, if you know your beat, you should fold. What you have told everyone gives a very predictable range playing against you. If i sat next to you, and your in a 3 bet pot, Two thoughts are going to go through my head.

1. Fold he has a strong hand.

2. Is it possible to make him uncomfortable with his holding and possibly gain a fold.

Now, his all in could have meant something else. A lot of pros bet draws the way you bet your KK. Their is a spade draw on the board. IF he knows you, then he would know your not on a draw based on what you told us. Although, if he doesn't, he could be exploiting your EV for a possible flush draw. It can be very hard to lay a set down when the third spade peels off. So, if he has a set his safe beat is to exploit all your equity and move in making it non profitable. He could have had your KKs beat with this thought process.

Don’t hate the hero fold tbh. Especially with Ks in your hand.

Most TAGs aren’t going to check/rip in ~300bb with QQ. You can be beating AQss/AJss, but that is pretty close to a flip anyways and most of the time (from the player type you described) you will see AA and you are crushed.

4b pre always.

Lol fold flop, snap call with your sets. Ez game. If you dont have middle set here you’re playing too tight

Bingo. There are plenty of live players who will have AA/KK 100% of the time they 4-bet here. Don't be one of those people.

No way you can fold this. No way.

There's $500 (a buy in!) in the middle. You only need to call $1150 to win $1650.

Not when you're this underrepped.

Also in this spot, I am happy to have the Ks. It gives us more equity when he does have AA, TT, and we don't need many combos at all of flushdraws and QQ (maybe 4 in total?) to make this call very profitable so I'll take the added equity over the blockers.

We need villain to shove QQ >50% to be a profitable call. 38% equity for half QQ combos + A4ss,A5ss,AJss,AQss

100% QQ combos and we are 46%.

Need 41.1% on 1.4347

If you expect villain to shove >50% combos of QQ (or similar dominated hand) for 300bb then call. Not sure where most of you play live poker, but I don’t see a lot of ‘TAGs’ playing QQ this way too often.

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

16,830 trials (Exhaustive)

board: T64

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
Kskh	38.04%	5,930	945
Aa,kk,asjs,asqs,tt,as4s,as5s,qsq	61.96%	9,955	945

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I think he takes the line of check-instashove flop with more combos of QQ than TT.

Not sure that I agree but I gave same number of combos of QQ and TT (3). I think the check/snap shove makes villain less likely to have QQ if we decide to read anything into timing at all.


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If your plan is not 4betting Kings to disguise your hand, then why thinking about not stacking of on this board? You got what you wanted in the beginning...

Being underrepped because of preflop flat is not a good enough reason (by itself) to stack off. Villains range is of primary importance.


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This is a massive check jam for more than 250BBs into a pot of about 56BB. Most people tend not to do this with something like QQ on this board, so you aren't beating his value range ever (which is TT, AA, weighted very heavily towards AA). For his non value range I would expect to see 78ss, 89ss, AQss for draws (with AQss less likely than 78/89ss)... But even these arent incredibly likely because his preflop 3bet sizing was very small - less than 4x against a raise and a call, plus limpers. It would be weird to 3bet this small OOP facing this action with 78s or 89s, although people do it occasionally.

I agree with WowLucky, it doesnt matter much that we are under repped / at the top of our range. This is a human we are playing against, not a strong AI. Most likely our opponent is not balanced here (honestly its hard for him to be balanced in this spot postflop given his preflop sizing) and will show up with us crushed too often to call. Folding the top of your range in special scenarios like this, where you simply arent beating his, is perfectly fine. If he does it again though, or you gain info that he might be light in a spot like this, you'd better not be folding.

Reads are also relevant here. Do NOT make the mistake of "giving too much credit", meaning attributing some FPS to him. Your read is TAG so assume he is playing a solid strategy / not FPSing. Assuming that, what's most reasonable for him to have? I would fold here.

I agree with the other poster who said you really need to be 4betting this and widening your 4bet range in general (edit: unless you think he is too nitty and would fold QQ to your 4bet - in that case start 4bet bluffing tons and flat here). A lot of midstakes players would benefit from this... Think about how 4betting gives you more options and defends your open range. It is easy to go too far with it, but its important to have it in the toolbox.

Looks like a flush draw

Also not 4betting is pretty crazy.

Maybe 4bet $250/fold

If he starts ripping your 4bets more don't fold KK pre.

I think folding is ok you will literally have all possible sets in your range. (you should)

His massive OB jam imo is hardly ever JJ or QQ probably AA and lots of NFD's

1. 4bet.
2. Depends on villain image.
Has he done this with draws? Maybe playing AsTx this way?

As played I call. Though really depends in villain tendencies.

Your not looking in the right place to figure what to do here. So he 3b and no 1400 at 2/5 i am not 4b thats just suicide. i would see a flop. You guys think a reg would not know what you have that deep? Your just saying what your hand is this deep. THese guys are 100 bb online players on 2+2 they don't understand stack depth and these are full ring games not 6 max. KK is not that great in live full ring game super deep. So its just call were to deep pre flop. All of these guys would of lost their stack when they 4b they would of called the 5b shove too saying its gto call and its cooler haha.

Now on the flop no he doesn't have set. So thats not in his range he has no reason to butcher a set with spr this high. The question should be is he capable of bluffing like this. To check shove 1500/125 dollars. And you say he does it for a living. Its obvious he has AA here. like 200% of the time. He not only puts you all in but he check shoves. This is a never a bluff. This is not a flush draw. A good reg is never check shoving here that deep with flush draw with spr this high. Now have you ever seen him do this with QQ for this kind of money at 2/5? If not you have to fold because i am 200% + 800%= 1000% sure your gonna see AA every time. this is definitely not AK. This is just one of those lines you just have to let it go against a GOOD reg who is a grinder. Your KK is no good. Unless he is brad booth fan i would hit a shot of whiskey and fold. I would of showed the KK after i folded to see if he shows. If he don't show he has AA. Hes gonna wanna bust your balls and show QQ if you were wrong. Thats a great time to show a hero fold to figure out what he has. Or even offer 20 bucks if he can show worse then KK

this. there is no way you can ever fold this wíthout reads.