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Losing Value on River by not shoving? Losing Value on River by not shoving?

05-12-2020 , 08:03 PM
The V here is a very tight (10% VPIP) player, who plays narrow opening ranges. My question here is about the river raise - should I have jammed all in, rather than raising to 48bb?



I figured very strongly that a K was well in V's range, though I must note he played this quite passively overall until the river, which is something I didn't expect of him at the time. But I really suspected he had a K when he over bet river but I was worried that it was a weak one given that he just called my min raise from the BB, which was poss why he overbet, to make me think that he had a flush (which he did (if he thought I was thinking he had a weak king, which is kinda how he played it)). I didn't think that he had backdoored the flush, so that wasn't in my thinking when I was factoring in the raise size. I wanted to make it big and look suspicious, which is why I went 3x. I thought shoving would get too many kings like KJ, KT, K9s, K8s to fold.



Or should I have continued to bet the turn when checked to? I didn't wish to scare him off, and a thought that did flash through my mind on the turn was that by checking I allow flush draws to realise their equity on the river if they get there, though I didn't think he was likely to have one here.



Any thoughts/critique/discussion would be greatly appreciated!




Poker Hand #HD348167975: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.5)
6-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: cffa542b ($55.62 in chips)
Seat 2: VILLAIN ($53.3 in chips)
Seat 3: Hero ($131.59 in chips)
Seat 4: 7285e8c1 ($43.99 in chips)
Seat 6: a0b6a204 ($50 in chips)
cffa542b: posts small blind $0.25
b6830834: posts big blind $0.5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to cffa542b
Dealt to b6830834
Dealt to Hero [7s 7d]
Dealt to 7285e8c1
Dealt to a0b6a204
Hero: raises $0.5 to $1
7285e8c1: folds
a0b6a204: folds
cffa542b: folds
VILLAIN: calls $0.5



POT = 2.25
*** FLOP *** [4c 7h Kd]
VILL: checks
Hero: bets $0.74
VILL: calls $0.74



POT = 3.73
*** TURN *** [4c 7h Kd] [4h]
VILL: checks
Hero: checks



POT = 3.73
*** RIVER *** [4c 7h Kd 4h] [2h]
VILL: bets $6.73
Hero: raises $17.19 to $23.92
VILL: calls $17.19
Hero: shows [7s 7d] (Sevens Full over Fours)
VILL: shows [Kh Qh] (King High Flush)




*** SHOWDOWN ***
Hero collected $51.57 from pot
Losing Value on River by not shoving? Quote
05-12-2020 , 10:26 PM
In my opinion, checking back turn is a mistake. Hearts on the river can make it difficult to extract value from his pairs, and flush draws that pick up outs on the turn aren't going anywhere.

In this particular hand it probably got you max value. A bet on turn and over-bet river would make the pot ~$40, but at that point he just calls.

As played, I think pot is good on river.
Losing Value on River by not shoving? Quote
05-12-2020 , 11:02 PM
checking turn is so bad. that's where you're losing value not on the river
Losing Value on River by not shoving? Quote

      
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