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5NL thin river bet? 5NL thin river bet?

11-15-2017 , 12:57 AM
Is the river bet too thin? Bad sizing? Once he called flop and turn, should I just check behind on river, cause really, what's calling that i bet? 66s, 33s, and A4s, A2s, maybe some curious AJ, AQ hand? His fold to 3bet was 50% (2/4 - too small to mean anything I think)

thanks for any comments.

PokerStars - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 100 BB
SB: 123.2 BB
BB: 110 BB (VPIP: 24.00, PFR: 16.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 25)
UTG: 364 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 16.00, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 26)
MP: 52.8 BB (VPIP: 24.54, PFR: 13.01, 3Bet Preflop: 4.35, Hands: 278)
CO: 100 BB (VPIP: 18.32, PFR: 14.36, 3Bet Preflop: 6.58, Hands: 208)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A 7

fold, fold, CO raises to 3 BB, Hero raises to 9 BB, fold, fold, CO calls 6 BB

Flop: (19.4 BB, 2 players) 4 7 2
CO checks, Hero bets 8 BB, CO calls 8 BB

Turn: (35.4 BB, 2 players) 9
CO checks, Hero bets 16 BB, CO calls 16 BB

River: (67.4 BB, 2 players) 9
CO checks, Hero bets 32 BB, CO calls 32 BB
5NL thin river bet? Quote
11-15-2017 , 01:13 AM
Think 3betting A7s is kinda mehh...
V doesn't seem all that wide on his openings, but I think vs overall population it cant be bad since I think people tend to fold too much OOP vs 3bet.

After the turn bet, I'd lean towards checking OTR.
U might get some calls from 66,7x but thats like all hands u beat imo.
5NL thin river bet? Quote
11-15-2017 , 02:15 AM
Mix calling pre and bet river smaller
5NL thin river bet? Quote
11-15-2017 , 04:04 AM
I think I check the river. If I bet than it's going to be more like 20bb, but I prefer going for super thin river value when I am more confident my opponent is capped.
5NL thin river bet? Quote
11-15-2017 , 07:56 AM
pre is either a call or a 3bet. betting river is too thin imo
5NL thin river bet? Quote
11-15-2017 , 09:51 AM
Pre is definitely fine, I will mix it up between call and 3b.

3 streets is way too thin. I think I'm checking somewhere, but it's probably before the river for me. I don't think we have a valuebet OTT because people let go of their two overs at a high frequency in my experience but might bluff with them OTR when you check back turn.
5NL thin river bet? Quote
11-15-2017 , 10:43 AM
I wouldn't t even bet a 9 if the board hadn't paired, this is a very easy x back, although I imagine he has something like TT/JJ.

Betting flop and then turn small is good because you have a vulnerable made hand and it almost guarantees you a free showdown .No idea why you'd fire river though as you're rarely/never getting called by worse. Maaaaybe specifically something like 87 suited but not really that often at all. Opening up the action to get raised by some rivered or slowplayed monster and folding Is a carcrash with 2nd pair and I cant believe some people think you have a value bet here - you're crazy if you think he's calling with something like A4 or a 'curious' AQ as you put it.

Edit: in b4 you show results and he aonewhow called with A4

Last edited by BackdoorQuadsDraw; 11-15-2017 at 11:02 AM.
5NL thin river bet? Quote
11-15-2017 , 11:35 AM
I'm probably checking back turn but as played yes the river bet is too thin, check back the river if you don't on the turn. The 9 pairing is definitely good for us but I think V could easily show up with 88-JJ here, too.
5NL thin river bet? Quote
11-15-2017 , 11:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BackdoorQuadsDraw

Edit: in b4 you show results and he aonewhow called with A4
How'd you know????? Value bet him good. LOL.

Naw, he called with QQ. I wanted to xback the river, but I've been trying to be more aggressive with my value bets in position. But I'm far off from picking my spots correctly.
5NL thin river bet? Quote
11-15-2017 , 12:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by shynepo3
How'd you know????? Value bet him good. LOL.

Naw, he called with QQ. I wanted to xback the river, but I've been trying to be more aggressive with my value bets in position. But I'm far off from picking my spots correctly.
Haha yea thought QQ might 4b pre, I had him on TT/JJ but same thing.

Just think to yourself what value hands can he call with that I beat? Would you call with 66 OOP here after being bet into twice, especially when he could x back river? Not in a million years. You know he doesn't have air because he's not tried to take you off the hand at any point, he either has a hand that can call and will beat you, or a hand that can't call.

A good hand to value be this river thin would be something like QQ, you can get called by smaller PPs and maybe A7 if he's sticky.
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11-15-2017 , 12:06 PM
I would check turn most likely. River is Karen Carpenter thin.
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11-15-2017 , 12:15 PM
And also, because some people are saying x turn and some x river, this is my take on why river is superior.

1. Villain might fold turn, which is a good outcome here. He can't outdraw us if he isn't in the hand and he might also be folding the best hand.

2. More importantly, we keep control of the pot size. If we x turn here, villain picks up on our weakness and bombs river for 2/3 - 100% pot, we're left in a tricky situation and probably have to fold what may even be the best hand. If we bet turn small, like OP did, we are pretty much always going to realise our equity with no more money lost.
5NL thin river bet? Quote
11-15-2017 , 12:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BackdoorQuadsDraw
And also, because some people are saying x turn and some x river, this is my take on why river is superior.

1. Villain might fold turn, which is a good outcome here. He can't outdraw us if he isn't in the hand and he might also be folding the best hand.

2. More importantly, we keep control of the pot size. If we x turn here, villain picks up on our weakness and bombs river for 2/3 - 100% pot, we're left in a tricky situation and probably have to fold what may even be the best hand. If we bet turn small, like OP did, we are pretty much always going to realise our equity with no more money lost.
Not that I'm 100% certain b/x/? is better than b/b/x but to counter those points:
1. Villain is rarely calling a turn bet with worse, and if there is any chance that he will turn any of those into bluffs on missed rivers we remove that potential EV by betting turn.
2. This assumes villain never donks rivers which, though on the rarer side, isn't unheard of.
5NL thin river bet? Quote
11-15-2017 , 12:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikk
Not that I'm 100% certain b/x/? is better than b/b/x but to counter those points:
1. Villain is rarely calling a turn bet with worse, and if there is any chance that he will turn any of those into bluffs on missed rivers we remove that potential EV by betting turn.
2. This assumes villain never donks rivers which, though on the rarer side, isn't unheard of.
You wouldn't call 40-50% bet on turn with 2nd pair or the NFD or a gutter + pair or something? I would. And like I said I'm not that happy calling a PSB or decent bet OTR with just a bluffcatcher - I don't really want him to turn missed draws into bluffs when I'm not sure if I'm calling. I've got villains to just x the NFD+SD to me OTR with this type of play and won with third pair, hands that are always going to bet river big as a bluff and you're always going to on fold.

Second point hinges on villain taking the c/c/donk line, which happens so seldomly that I'm happy to take that risk.
5NL thin river bet? Quote
11-15-2017 , 12:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BackdoorQuadsDraw
And also, because some people are saying x turn and some x river, this is my take on why river is superior.

1. Villain might fold turn, which is a good outcome here. He can't outdraw us if he isn't in the hand and he might also be folding the best hand.

2. More importantly, we keep control of the pot size. If we x turn here, villain picks up on our weakness and bombs river for 2/3 - 100% pot, we're left in a tricky situation and probably have to fold what may even be the best hand. If we bet turn small, like OP did, we are pretty much always going to realise our equity with no more money lost.
The guy's 18/14 so in terms of flop floats he has what? Ax, only some of which will be AcXc with any real equity, the rest is drawing to 3 outs (maybe KcXc for one more combo, and then the other Kx suited with like 12% equity on the turn).

So our hand doesn't really need much protection relative to how much you're just going to be value cutting yourself vs. his pairs and such.
5NL thin river bet? Quote
11-15-2017 , 01:03 PM
I realise I didn't address point 2. above. If you think he has enough unpaired hands on the turn that a river bluff is a concern, then surely we want to check back hands like A7 and bluff catch river.
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11-15-2017 , 01:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bladesman87
The guy's 18/14 so in terms of flop floats he has what? Ax, only some of which will be AcXc with any real equity, the rest is drawing to 3 outs (maybe KcXc for one more combo, and then the other Kx suited with like 12% equity on the turn).

So our hand doesn't really need much protection relative to how much you're just going to be value cutting yourself vs. his pairs and such.
It's about equity realisation for me and I was making a more general point. Bet turn small and x back river you get to realise your equity for 40% of the pot size on the flop, or get him to fold a better hand a small % of the time.

X turn and you might get to realise it but now you have to call a bet size of his choosing. You might also ene up fold the best hand.

Take this specific hand for example. If hero had taken my like he would have lost less than if he took b x c line. If he'd been up against 66 then this hand probably would have played out the same with either line but if the river was T+ and OP had bet flop x turn already,, river will just go x/x and He loses his thin value, or might even get bluffed off it.
5NL thin river bet? Quote
11-15-2017 , 01:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bladesman87
I would check turn most likely. River is Karen Carpenter thin.
I had to google her. Sad.

I think there's merit to both xturn /bet river and bet turn /xriver. Both can be correct imo.
5NL thin river bet? Quote
11-15-2017 , 01:17 PM
I couldn't think of a reference that was down with the kids.
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11-15-2017 , 03:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bladesman87
I would check turn most likely.
5NL thin river bet? Quote

      
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