A few hours into session. I haven't tangled much with villain up to this point, but he has accumulated about 2k by sunrunning. Not at all a fish or playing bad, but not playing great either.

I start the hand with a bit over 900, in the small blind, with, in my opinion, the prettiest of all the 1,369 combos, the ****ing AsAh. (Don't worry about the pic giving tells, I do this several times per session with a wide array of holdings. Not once yet have I been given reason to believe anyone has noticed anything about it. Lots of people casually have their cell phone in their hands while playing a hand. This pic was taken afer the dealer raken in the 3 bet)

Villain opens his standard 15 utg+1, folds to me in the small. I make it 55. I'm sure many of you would go larger, but this might be just my 2nd 3! of the session, and I'm not trying to fold out hands that are doing particularly terrible against mine.

He calls, and off to the flop we go! J2ddJc. I like it, and continue 60. After 15 seconds or so he cuts out 60 red and puts a black on top and pushes it into the pot. I toss a black in.

Turn is 4h. Like it. I check, and after about 15 seconds, tosses out 3 black. Here's the decision point. What could he have? Random air is likely out at this point, there are no possible combos of AJs, but we don't block the nut flush draw. Its conceivable he could play kings this way, doubt queens would. Generally a 300 opening turn bet is pretty large in these 500 cap games, don't see them often with money behind. In game I felt he didn't want a call, so I flat.

River is clean, 9c. I check, again after a bit, he throws out 4 black. Which is just about what I have, plus a handful of blues.

Thoughts? Or is the entire hand completely standard and Im just ripped on edibles?

This flop sizing is really bad.

I would probably sigh-call as played and expect to lose quite often.

Too late to edit OP: I should add I am not at all above saving 400 on the river, I'll make some much smaller folds to muuuuch tighter ranges based on opponents.

Flop should check - H don’t have as many Js as V has. Besides, checking AA does not really risk you anything - whatever V had that is behind at flop will most likely remain behind after Turn.

As played, Turn is probably an AI to get max value from flush draws and diminish V’s profitable bluffing opportunity at River. When arrived at river as played it’s probably a cry call given AA is close to H’s top range.

Gross spot. Honestly not sure what I'd do. Crying call seems good, but I'd have to know V is capable of bluffing here. 2/5 at B, you'd think he is. However, he must put you on KK or AA -- does he expect you to call or fold?

I usually think the call on the turn and no change on the river means you should probably call river, but I'd like more info. If he's been sunrunning and that's the info you've got, maybe fold?

I think you can get away with it sometimes on the turn, V is repping 2s full/Jx hard, KK would have 4! pre most of the time and QQ wouldn't be bashing the pot like V is. I know I could never fold on any street, V can just be trying to rep Jx, Vs play the board all the time when they pinpoint your range (AA-QQ).

Live tells would help here, does V look like he's bluffing? Does he look nervous? Or does he look like he doesn't have anything to worry about?

And even if you do make the crying call and V shows you AJs/KJs/22, it's not like it's a pot you should really care about losing. V could have tons of FD semi-bluffs that whiffed, along with some other random ass ****.

You're at the top of your range - with probably the best holding you can have in this spot. You have very few jacks in this spot as AJx and JTs would be a flat from the SB vs UTG+1.

I'm 3betting much bigger OOP and deep. 55 is too small. I am going 65 at minimum - ideally 70 or 75. If we were 100bb deep than 50-55 is fine.

Flop is a check most of the time. You can bet it, but 1/4th - 1/3rd sizing is ideal.

Looks like he has a Jack, or flush draw. Since he is running good i'd say he probably has a jack. Usually these sun runs last all session. Can be very tilting but it is what it is.

On river you're getting a pretty good price, at the top of your range. If I was gonna fold it would be the turn. I'd just pay him off if I got to the river. I also probably just jam turn to deny flush draw equity if I was gonna continue with the hand. Nothing wrong with folding that turn though.

I'm gonna dissect this entire post my friend and say to basically do the exact opposite on every street.

It's perfectly fine to 3bet AJ and JT sb vs ep. You'd be surprised how light live players will open from ep. In fact sometimes I dont think it has anything to do with position at all and just some other influence, like "i always open light utg if my first card is black" or something. I've had to throw out lots of mental notes on previous nitty players after seeing them show down 67o from an utg raise. I wouldnt make a habit out of it but i'd much rather 3bet JTs from the sb than flat it vs just about anybody honestly unless i had a sea of callers to warrant just trying to "get there".

Also hate checking flop on a paired board when you have it. #1 reason is because live players will never give you credit for making trips and only trips can bet here, everything else must be ab luff. Remember, they know you're an internet player and always cbets AK. And when you do bet, dont make it 1/4 pot. If anything that might actually sell the idea you have trips. They are very bet size conscientious. Weak means strong. Just go for fat value and bet standard 3/4 pot or whatever you normally use.

Now as I would play it this would include a turn barrel too. QQ and TT will stay in there along with every flush draw as rare as it should be. It's a little bit of a crapshoot because we are setting the stage for a big fold if he raises us at any point. It's just your classic "they play 50% of the deck so I'm bound to be a reactive player". Your hand is good until they tell you it's not. So you're folding to a turn raise and folding to whatever happens on the river as well.

I understand everyone's sentiment to make a crying call on the river, but how often have you really seen anyone ever bluff a river? They might accidentally bluff and fire with QQ or something because they dont know how to check back a pair, but I promise you learning to fold rivers will plug like 90% of your leaks in live lol.

it's the Bellagio 2/5. they always have it. fold turn

I would have gone larger pre ($60-70), especially because of the small 3x open. Initially I'm inclined to x/jam the turn, but his small 3x open and small flop raise leaves all the KJs/QJs/JTs/J9s combos in his range. You block all AJs but the previous combos are still 8 total and he could just be a fish raise/calling AJo. You didn't give any info on his tendencies, especially RFI range and sizing so ultimately this could go either way due to limited info/lack of an actionable read.

Turn and river action look like he's milking you so I guess fold given board runout and your range being faceup as QQ+. He can bluff some suited diamond broadway combos but you've mentioned nothing of his bluffing capabilities.

Yup, pretty much this in a nutshell.

Thanks for replies.

I did end up calling, and sure enough, he had a jack. With a ****ing ace. I do think I could have escaped on river, really unlikely bluff for relatively small remaining stack after calling flop raise and turn bet. Basically just bad reads on my part postflop.

Ideally I'd obv like to get more money in pre, and if I thought he'd call 75 with AJo, I'd go 75. But I definitely am not trying to fold that out.

Planned to barrel a board like that all the way, again not trying to get folds at any point.

Off topic, but I thought the old brown Bellagio tables looked much nicer than the new blue ones.

+1 to that

I think you even can get away on the turn when he continues for a healthy bet. 90 percent of LLSNL villains is extremely Jx heavy here when they raise the flop in a 3 bet pot and continue on turn despite you calling the flopraise.

such a polarized flop unless the Dude is wearing Superman's cape he has my nice hand sentence ready to fire after raising my cbet.
instinctively the lure and luster of Aces heads up may have me immune to the first flop punch to the face but after i retreat to my corner and he leads with another jab on the turn i believe i tap out.
he knows you have an overpair once your call the hundo on top yet still leads the turn with 300. that's either nerves of superman steel or a jack deuces are possible but at game speed im thinking something j suited.
just another ride on the variance roller coaster

Pre-flop sizing is fine. Half pot bet on the flop is fine as well given the board really only hits Jx. When he does raise the flop there is a bit of concern as most opponents would most likely call flush draws on a paired board, but you're at the top of your range so calling the 3bet is pretty standard. 3/4 pot bet on the turn by villain is where you can probably get away from it since he's conveying so much strength. However, I don't think he'd be doing this with QQ or KK as you indicated since those would be 4bet pre.

Just a poor runout and situation all together with AA. On to the next one.

I forgot that V raised the flop cbet. I am of course calling to keep him honest, and 50/50 whether I have the discipline to fold the turn.

When V has QQs your flop sizing is wonderful but we should be downbetting this texture.

However, we will have to continue more of our range vs any reasonable raise size and likely turn aggression as well so just keep that in mind.

AP, I’m not folding turn and obv not river. We’re not loving it of course, but we don’t know that this is the sizing V would choose with his Jx ott. If we did, then a hero fold is reasonable because it’s hard to derive reasonable bluffs here on this board for a random V given that it’s a 3-bet pot.

You don’t make money trying to minimize your losses, and even if the player pool usually has it I don’t think it’s a huge consideration in this exact situation. Every V is different and we don’t have specific reads.

This is honestly one of those spots where if you fold turn and V has anything worse than AA the avg poster’s sentiment would almost exclusively be “what a terrible fold OP”

that’s because I’m doubtful that this spot is reasonably close in theory land (fwiw) considering the texture and preflop configuration and we don’t know V’s tendencies well enough to make this fold AP

IMO

You guys think he's folding any pair on that flop for 60, let alone mid pairs?

I didn't include this in the OP because I didn't want it to skew perception of the rest of the hand, but he did start breathing noticeably heavier when I called his flop raise, and it continued throughout the hand. He wasnt shaky or anything. Did I really botch a tell? Does labored breathing lean heavily more in favor of "omg I've got my man on the hook!" Vs "oh boy, this is a big pot, and I'm gonna barrel this shitbird the **** outta here!"?

ranges are narrow and you need to pick a sizing that fits into your overall strategy on this texture, not just for this hand class.

Population reacts worse vs smaller sizings as well (in spots where we’re implementing them correctly) so that’s a +.

V has to “bluff” raise us vs a small sizing far more than they likely will in practice.

This ties back into preflop where the sizing you chose would be bad for your 3-bets like 8 7.

Even if this V isn’t paying attention there are other V’s who are aware who may be and will 4-bet you lighter when you use a larger sizing because you’re unlikely to have AA.

It’s different if you have some specific reads, but it doesn’t seem like you do.

RTP:
always appreciate your insights...
Given the betting action what is your read on Vs holding that makes you want to continue ?
V has my attention with the flop raise and turn continuation. V knows/or at least suspects hero is holding premiums given the OOP 3B preflop.

Heavy breathing is typically an indication of a big hand.

You have to include this stuff and be un-biased if you’re looking for good advice

no need to story-tell in the OP either haha

Another good indication is shaky hands when getting chips to bet... at least for me.

I really have to stop marrying AA, lost a buy-in last night when V was repping NF hard, oh well, life goes onnn.