for those i owe money to on xbook, please give me your ub name so i can start to settle up.

viff mines DieSlowGimp city G I expect to be paid by tonight

lol nice

Hope this challenge finally completes soon.

Bump lol

I still have a 5K outstanding bet with someone on this epic fail match which i would really like to settle.

Probably a lot more people have had the same issue in the past, but I can't find any general consensus on how to settle the bets. Hopefully someone can help me out a bit, since im a complete noob at this.

What would be a fair payout on a 5K bet in this scenario ?

FWIW here are my calculations based off 20500 hands played, 1,450,000 won by Jungleman and a SD/100 of 150BBs.



First column is Jungleman's winrate, second column is his probability of winning the challenge. This doesn't factor in the winning player adjusting their strategy, so in reality Jungleman's win % is higher. Other than that the maths is very solid. Amount won/lost per hand is anything but normally distributed, but the amount won/lost per 29500 hands is.

FWIW assuming Jungleman's pre-match winrate was normally distributed with expectation 0 and standard deviation 10, after 20500 hands his winrate is N~(8.4,7.2). There's an 87.81% chance that he's a winning player.

If Jungleman's winrate is 0 the fair buyout price for Durrrr is $1,340,584. Again this assumes no tactical adjustment so the actual fair buyout price is higher. If Jungleman's winrate is ~1.1bb/100 Durrrr should immediately concede the challenge.



In answer to your actual question, if you bet at evens, if you assume Jungleman's winrate is 0 and the winning player won't adjust strategy (the last two are dubious to say the least), the fair buyout price is $4.2k.

Thank you very much for the detailed reply PartyGirl !!!

We have completed 25k hands rougly.

Tom and I have had some disputes but I believe we have essentially resolved them . The challenge is agreed to be played out in the next 9 months (God-willing). I think tom intends on finishing the challenge but has been distracted by things of great importance... In addition Black Friday greatly hindered our progress.

Are we going to need to guess at which screen name is him over the next 9mo?

Q1: What site?

Q2: Is 9 months significant in any way?

Q3: At any time since Black Friday and before now, had you been led to believe that you and Tom had ironed out the issues and were ready to play?

My opinion: I don't think this will happen, but I'm nobody.

If anyone wants action on this concluding in 9 months or less, I'd like to bet against that happening.

like he was broke and was dodging you?

Such as a large dilemma with pokerstars/full tilt, and the Feds arresting Paul and richard

Then we also had issues but resolved them as of lately

Sounds encouraging, hopefully it happens this time. I assume you'll now be playing the remainder of the challenge out on pokerstars due to the recent FTP update removing nosebleed games.

GL jungle, you the man. Tell Reiss I'm ready for our duo HU match whenever he is. BEST IN THE WORLD>

Full tilt has gotten rid if their heads up tables tho....so gonna have to be another site I guess

Subbing - excited that this will finish

**** yes!!!!

why the bet still not considered forfeit and money from side bet sent to jungleman ?

Yolo it dwayne

Bc they agreed on penalty payments which allegedly durrrr has been making.

Looking forward to this match again. High Stakes NLHE has been dead for quite a bit.