i feel like 6bb would get a tonne of action if you just post a "prop bet interest" thread or whatever they use to do back in the day.

Where do these usually go? In NVG or in here?

I'll bet.

I'd bet, depending on the line

I'm sure it's obvious to everyone, but the smaller the number of hands the more the odds should approach 1:1. Taking a line intended for 250k hands and suggesting it for 150k hands is quite clearly unfair.

just in case it's not obvious for everyone

either here or bbv should be fine, I think.

Although like some of the posters have said above, I feel like 5:1 is a bit off considering it's 100k less hands than the previously proposed bet

Did you make some variance calculations based on my perceived winrate of 2bb/100 and came to the conclusion that 5:1 for 150k is clearly unfair? In fact using the variance calculator on pokerdope.com I get:



So in other words assuming these parameters I have a 2.5% chance (check 95% confidence interval) of achieving a winrate of 6.85bb+/100. So my chance of making 6bb+/100 is clearly well under 5%. Now to break even with 1:5 odds we all know that I need just over 16% chance of making it. So I am a bit confused what calculations you used to arrive to the conclusion that 6bb/100 at 5:1 for 150k hands is "clearly unfair". In fact from the same picture we can see that with 15% probability (check 70% confidence interval) I can do 4.43bb+/100, so that would be the fair target for 150k hands with 5:1 odds. Btw for 250k hands the 2.5% probability is 5.75bb+/100, so not a big diffence.

Also one should ask the question whether you would rather do this bet vs someone with a longterm 2bb winrate who plays on average 100k hands a month or vs someone who only plays poker part time and plays 20k hands a months. In my opinion the increased variance because of less hands is more than offset by me having to play almost 4 times my normal volume, which is in itself a challenge for me (there is no way I can do 250k hands in 2.5 months).

Obviously people can have different opinions as to whether it a good or bad bet, but I question your motives for making such a post given that I am pretty sure you never intended to take the other side. I thought it was a fun challenge for me and a bit of change from the daily grind but it was always a big ask to find $200k to take the other side, so I doubt it will happen anyway whether I do it over 250k or 150k hands.

How many hands per year at z500 is needed to make SNE?
How many hands average per 1 month at z500 is needed to make SNE in 1 year?
(Should be piece of cake, right?)

You know as well as I do that what i said is perfectly fair. I asked what people thought would be a fair line for a 250k hand challenge, lines were suggested, you took the line with the highest odds and knocked off 40% of the volume, then made a thread saying you won't consider any other odds. By your logic, should we also give you 5:1 for attempting 50k hands with 6bb winrate? The original bet was for ev winrate, but of course you know that using bb increases variance and again makes the bet you suggested more +EV for you.

I may or may not bet against you, I just find it really annoying when you try to angle everyone like this.

You also probably play zoom at the worst time for zoom games (when can;t get enough reg tables) so your winrate there may not really be a true reflection on your real winrate when concentrating fully on zoom.

In regards to making the thread, i actually disagree with you d7o, I think Xela can do what he wants in that respect but I also think you would be well within your rights to post the details of your bet (with 250k hands) in xelas thread and also making a new one about it for your self if you are serious.

Perceived winrate 2bb made me jiggle. U really must believe teh avg better iq is fairly low. Lolol

[spoiler]kind rgds from teh TimStone[/spoiler]

obviously the odds should change from person to person

So let's try a different angle as you don't like reading about statistics: You have been getting coaching and financial from arguably the best cash game player in the world, I have received no coaching. You have had a winrate which is more double mine over the past year even though unlike me you start loads of tables. In fact your results have exploded lately. The suggestion that I should have the same terms as you for this Zoom bet is laughable and angling people if you use this argument to gather support for your prop bet.

More than happy to have a stipulation that I have to play most of my hands at the times I play at the moment. Don't plan to change my playing times as my wife would kill me if I started to play regularly in the evenings or the middle of the night. Which is also the reason why I cannot commit to more volume.

Well despite saying 6bb/100 at 1:5 for 250k hands at zoom is fair he still has not started the thread, and no one else has either. Wonder why that is.

Why does it make you chuckle? My winrate for the past year is below 2bb, I wish someone had the balls to post a screenshot from that tracking site.

We all know pretty damn well that u dont perceive urself as a 2bb winner longterm.

U did teh math urself and want to sell here that u have like 5% chance in succeeding this bet.

Strangely u only get 5:1 so far.

1. So either u r about to commit to a huuuuge -EV bet for urself

OR

2. U just talk crap.

Since u r way to smart for 1. i would go with 2, which is funny as well bc even though me and many others might not be on ur intellectual or academic level we are not bat****stupid either...


Also teh wifey statement is hilarious.
"Listen darling, i have this bet and i can win 200k us but teh next 60 days i have to play peaktimes very often in order to succeed it"
"No alex. Im outraged and im going to kill u if u do that. U play exactly teh times i allow u to play. Are we clear???"

Lolol

[spoiler]kind rgds from teh TimStone[/spoiler]

Who's that coach???

Seems like you are winning at 3.9bb/100 over a 1.6M hands sample and at 3bb/100 at zoom500 in 40k hands

Its pontylad

[spoiler]kind rgds from teh TimStone[/spoiler]

Well, this has all gotten extremely personal and unpleasant.

I'm just going to leave it here, I'm glad to see the angle is obvious to everyone.

GL with everything Alex

Just make the thread if youre actually serious of doing it. People will decide whos "angling" by who they bet on.

But im sure there will be a lack of action given that i imagine the regs who will bet on this will play 500z themselves which i dont think is allowed in prop bets? (could be wrong)

Tim as smart guy I am sure you know that no one has agreed to do a prop bet without thinking that they are EV+. Sometimes they are right, sometimes they are wrong. I am pretty sure the hard facts/stats say that my bet is pretty good value for money. I obviously still think I am EV in this proposed prop bet because I believe I ran pretty bad over the last year plus I think Zoom 500 is easier than some of the games I play (even though my results there don't reflect it so far).

I think you must be looking of my lifetime results which includes for example hands from when I was a 100NL FR reg over 3 years ago. Not sure lifetime results are that relevant for this bet as poker changed so much.

Haha, you must taking the p**s. I did not even mention your name when you came out of the blue and accused me of angling people without providing any evidence. And this despite you, when looking for action for your own prop bet, witholding the fact that you are coached and backed by arguably the best poker player in the world. And now you complain about it getting personal and unpleasant? Speachless....

I don't mind if people who play my games want to bet against me.

By the way mods, I know there has been a request to remove this discussion but I would like to kindly ask you to leave it here so people can make up their own mind. If you don't think this is the right platform to discuss this, then you could always move the post related to my prop bet to the prop bet interest thread I started. Thank you.

Is it WCG coaching him? Seems like they coach both poker and becoming a douche on the forums.

I asked as well a couple of months ago but got no answer.
Doubt it's WCG.

tim smashing the nail on teh head

but he has a math PhD that automatically makes him right here tim