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Ignition .50/ NLHE 220BB Eff. 6-Max flopped set vs. river donk lead Ignition .50/ NLHE 220BB Eff. 6-Max flopped set vs. river donk lead

06-13-2018 , 09:58 PM
UTG folds.

UTG1 fish (with $697.03 to start the hand) open limps.

Co ($2,463.15) raises to $20.

Hero ($1097.40) flats 2d2c from the button.

SB folds, BB folds.

Flop Ad2h9d.

UTG1 checks, co checks, hero bets $50 into $63.50.

UTG1 fish calls, co calls.

Turn Jh.

UTG1 checks, co checks hero bets $160 into $213.50.

UTG1 fish folds, co calls.

River Qd

Co donk leads for $412.50 into $533.50, hero calls.

Villain shows A7hh, Hero wins $1,358.50.

What do you think about the lines taken by the hero and the co?

What hands make sense for the villain to bluff with on this river?

What value hands does the villain take this line with?
Ignition .50/ NLHE 220BB Eff. 6-Max flopped set vs. river donk lead Quote
06-14-2018 , 08:24 AM
Preflop seems standard, but I think its important to consider how capped Hero's range is here. Does Hero only flat hands like 66-22, A8s-A2s, and 98s-54s? Or does Hero have hands like AJo or A9s? How balanced is this range, does Hero ever flatting Aces?

While the flop gives deuces a set, the Cutoff's range obviously loves this board. The decision not to c-bet is interesting, but I think using top pair weak kicker with the backdoor flush draw as a x/c is an interesting idea. If Hero only has 66-22, A8s-A2s, and 98-54s the cutoff has such a massive range advantage. I'd probably rather bet since a big part of both the UTG+1 and Hero's calling hands are flush draws. Hero does not have any decisions on this flop, clear bet.

The turn gives the cutoff a ton of equity and almost never helps Hero. UTG+1 is so wide here that cutoff is probably well ahead of their range. Given the line on the flop I think donking makes sense to charge flush draws, but if Cutoff thinks Hero bets wider here than just flush draws and top pairs I think checking is ok. Hero obviously has to bet here, letting the draws see a free card with bottom set would be terrible and he needs to get value out of what is likely the best hand in his range (I don't think you have 99).

Cutoff raising the turn would be interesting, but I think they have way better hands with both value (AA, 99, AJhh, A9hh) and with draws (KQdd, KTdd, etc.). Calling is probably best, especially since Hero has so few value combos and is going to have missed draws on the river a lot.

The river bringing a diamond is really good for hero's range, since he'll be double barreling diamond draws a good percentage of the time. So, I really hate the lead. Cutoff has way better hands to donk: several flushes and turning a strong bluff catcher like A7 that wins almost all of the time if Hero checks back. Bluffing with this hand does not make a ton of sense for that reason, especially since it blocks the nut backdoor draw.

Hero should likely just call, since they'll likely just get called by Cutoff's flushes and hands that beat hero.
Ignition .50/ NLHE 220BB Eff. 6-Max flopped set vs. river donk lead Quote
06-14-2018 , 09:59 PM
I agree with some of what you said. Hero's preflop range is definitely capped. I'm 3b most of my wheel suited ax, many of my suited connectors, 3b Ajo always, typically not flatting AA but sometimes flatting.

Co imo should almost always be betting this flop. His decision to xc is what makes the hand interesting imo. This board definitely favors his range and doesn't hit the Hero's or UTG1's range very often. UTG1 potentially could have a set of deuces (bad players still open limp bad pocket pairs in 2018), or an ax hand he may have open limped preflop, but is very wide. Some players are also open limping middling connected suited and offsuit hands like 89o and 10jo.

The co will have all the sets (except maybe not 22), a lot of Ax, some decent drawing hands like KQdd, KJdd, K10dd, QJdd, Q10dd, etc. Given our (Hero's) range is capped pre, I don't think there's too much merit to Xc. The hero will not have many value hands or strong draws, and likely will not be betting very often. Hero will have 22, sometimes 99, sometimes A9s (though this hand might sometimes be 3b), rarely AA, maybe some Kxdd, but KQdd and KJdd will be 3b a good amount, and Kxdd might just elect to check back the flop given the co's range advantage.

As played, I like a bet from Hero as our actual hand is strong and we want to charge some of our opponents' holdings, but again, this board does not hit much of the Hero's capped range, and thus this betting range is likely not very balanced. I actually question whether the co could exploitatively fold a lot of his weaker Ax hands on this flop because of that.

I agree that the turn rarely hits the Hero's range (in fact what hands could the hero even have here that improve on this turn?) While the turn favors the co's actual hand by giving him a nfd, this card also doesn't improve many of the hands in the co's range. The co at this point probably has mostly middling Ax, a set of aces, maybe some flush draws, maybe a set of nines. I'm not sure what hand the co might donk with, other than maybe a set of jacks, as JJ could potentially xc on the flop. This does not seem advisable, however, given the J so rarely hits the co's range.

I agree the Hero should continue betting here on the turn. Given the co's hand, I think xc makes sense. Xr seems bad because it would not be a good spot to have to stack off with just an Ace and a flush draw given we are relatively deep, and the co would not want to get blown off of his equity. We also established that when the Hero bets flop, he is likely unbalanced.

Additionally, I think we can rule a lot of hands out of the co's range at this point. He will rarely have KXdd, as those hands would usually bet on the flop. A9s likely bets on the flop as well. AJhh is a possible candidate for value (though this hand likely bets the flop too), in addition to JJ.

One of the main questions I have is what hands make sense for the co to donk here? I agree A7hh seems like an awful hand to donk with. A7hh plays much better as a bluff catcher and could potentially win at showdown. Additionally, while hearts are probably less relevant, his hand blocks something like Axhh that the Hero could have flatted pre and double barreled (though a middling Axhh might check back the turn). Further, a lot of the villain's stronger flushes likely would have bet the flop.

JJ and AA are very unlikely to xc flop xc turn. To that end, is the villain even repping anything credible? Or did he just burn $412.50 betting a hand that rarely gets called by worse, but has some merit as a bluff catcher, has poor removal (except blocks AA), and potentially has some showdown value?
Ignition .50/ NLHE 220BB Eff. 6-Max flopped set vs. river donk lead Quote
06-15-2018 , 12:54 AM
Hero probably almost never flatting AA pre. A9s can mix. 22 marginal holding at best in this spot pre so we shouldn't necessarily have all 22 here. 22 should be close to top of our range on the flop - if we have some combos of a super rare flat with A2s and mix of A9s then those block V's value more but we are still way ahead on flop and turn. 99 generally flatting. Even river is questionable with very few bluffs unless something bizarre is going on like really oddly played AA/super infrequent mixed strategy from CO.

CO can definitely have all sets including 22. Why would it make sense for CO to not always have 22 but Hero always have 22 (should be the opposite).

Interesting dynamic that flop rarely hits B range but turn rarely hits CO range.

Regarding Villain XR on flop - I'd rather see him do this with a 9 as opposed to an A as it's more important to block 99 than the few flatted aces. Yes, he's burning $. River donk bluffs should be generally something more like Kd9x (preferably with no h) or perhaps KxKd, maybe even QxQd.
Ignition .50/ NLHE 220BB Eff. 6-Max flopped set vs. river donk lead Quote
06-16-2018 , 11:26 PM
standard on your part, irrevelant to consider what villain's thought process was
Ignition .50/ NLHE 220BB Eff. 6-Max flopped set vs. river donk lead Quote
06-26-2018 , 05:53 AM
Nice hand..nice pot!

the villain's story does not add up here, passive on the flop and turn and aggro on the river.. very fishy line if you ask me. I mean it a slim chance that he might have a flush here but he would have bet the flop with that.

Btw, if villain has KQdd here (the villain i.e) should we bet out on the flop, barrel the turn and lead the river? or do we slow down and check the turn?
Ignition .50/ NLHE 220BB Eff. 6-Max flopped set vs. river donk lead Quote

      
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