Quote:
Originally Posted by Nielsio
If he folds we win the whole pot 245+70+80+15 = 410, giving us a net profit of 300.
If he calls we win 2K+15 * 65.25% = 1314.79, giving us a net profit of 314.79 .
We would only ever choose scenario 3 if we knew he would play them more +EV (for us) than our ~300 profit on the flop. This is a supertricky situation because villain might read our hand from our choice and can play he turn/river perfectly. Because of that I don't think this option will be interesting to figure out EV-wise.
Damn, forgot to add in the 15 in blinds in the EV calc, was trying to give $5 in extra EV for a bunch of extra variance, say villain forgets about the deal etc too.