2/4, Pokerrr group.

Villian (CO) is pretty tight and passive.

LJ Hero ($1151)
HJ ($1644)
CO ($625)

Hero has Ac Qs

Hero opens to $16 (there was an extra $6 in the pot from a poster), HJ, CO, SB, BB call.

Flop (84): 5c Qc Ah
Hero bets 33, HJ and CO call.

Turn (183): 5c Qc Ah 3h
Hero bets 183, HJ and CO call.

River (732): 5c Qc Ah 3h 2c
Hero checks, HJ checks CO bets 375, Hero folds, HJ folds.

My thinking
-I've been playing this game with this relatively small player pool for about 6 weeks and I've been getting killed by calling river bets like this because they just aren't bluffing as often as I think. They almost always have it
-This particular villain was one of the more straightfoward, tightish ABC players.
-He's also betting into 2 players.
-His overcall of a pot-sized bet on the turn means he ought to have something, and the a flush draw is the most obvious thing. If he had something like A4s or 54s, those hit too.
-On the other hand, I'm getting 3 to 1, so I only have to be right 25 percent of the time.
-Also I have the Ac, which reduces the flush draws in his range, but he still could have KJc, JTc, T9c, 98c, etc.

Given all that I'm still really torn on whether it was a good laydown or not. I go back and forth. If it were an unknown player, or if he'd bet a little smaller, or if it had been heads up, I think I'd have called.

I don't know. I don't feel great about it.

Folding doesn't feel good but still the correct play given the action and (especially) your read on the CO. He isn't bluffing or value betting worse in that spot.

CO's range shouldn't really have a lot of flushes in this spot given we have the Ac blocker because I don't think a tight passive player is going to be calling a medium high flush draw OTT here. (8c9c, Tc9c) - it's specifically KcJc and maybe/probably JcTc too because the lower flush draws can easily have RIO here and aren't getting the price anyway.

Look, if you've seen CO show down with zero bluffs in 10 or more river bets then you can make an exploitative fold but I think we have to call with this hand otherwise.

Tight passive bets 50% pot into 2 ppl on river spot - generally like folding. His range has 4s in it, ours really doesn't.

To call & win v a value range of his, we need him to bet his A2/A3/A5 hands here 100% (and we need him to call both preflop & flop with A2 or A3). Having Ac does really limit his flush draw range, but as you highlighted it does exist still.

Fwiw, I think I prefer a $55 flop bet size and something closer to 60% OTT. Is there merit to betting 25% OTR as some block/value bet?

I agree that given Hero blocks the nut flush that some sort of small blocker bet is in order on the river (at least that's what I would have done but I am by no means an expert) - I think Hero will get called by some worse pairs, especially queens and possibly aces, and I would imagine that this combined with fold equity gets Hero above 25% winning and into the +EV zone.

Thoughts anyone?

The chance CO does not have CC is pretty minimal. check, check, ship on that river (given the effective) from any tight passive player on should generate serious consideration. If the tight passive read is correct, then you can even discount a 4 most of the time. TP villian may make that bet heads up with a 4 on a C river, but won't against 2 players fearing a check raise.

Not knowing the rest of the metagame.......(what is the villian's opinion of the hero and the HJ?), I'd play it the same way. And, if CO is truly TP, then metagame, with respect to that player, matters pretty little anway. Call-call and then that river given a TP player behind doesn't warrant much else. I do agree with the $55 slop bet size though.

Hands you beat:

A of clubs and A of hearts are out of the deck. A2s was unlikely to call the turn bet given villain is tight.
That leaves A5ss, A5dd and A3ss, A3dd = 4 combos you beat, assuming villain thinks he can get value on this river which is unlikely if he is tight passive.

Assuming AKs, QQ and AA 3bet pre, hands which beat you are:
55,
A4ss, A4dd
T9cc,
KTcc, QTcc, JTcc
KJcc, QJcc,
KQcc
= 10 combos that beat you

Maybe he folds some of the weaker flush draws and the Axs on your big bet on the turn. Make it 5 combos which beat you.

Hands you split: AQo = 4 combos you split.

So, looks like villain is *maybe* betting 4 combos you beat, 5 which beat you and 4 where you split.

So even given 3 to 1 odds, seems close but probably still a fold considering villain is unlikely to bet the river with weaker 2 pairs at all when two other players are in the hand and may have hit a flush or higher two pair.

Its a god awful imo. He rarely if ever has 4. Tight players dont play cards with 4s in their hand in the co even A4 hes for sure not playing it. They tend to play only big cards and pairs. tight players dont have 45s in their range either. If anything you were splitting against AQ. since he was last to act hes betting AJ here sometimes or AK. You said hes passive so he has AK here. He doesn't put you or other player on 4 when you both check. Its a easy call. Anyone folding here to a tight player is making a huge mistake. He don't have a set often either cause they are going to raise the flop or turn sometimes along with 2 pair. I just see him thinknig his 2 pair is good and getting value against an Ax hand. i am pretty sure u call there u win that pot or split sometimes to 2 pair. Now if hes loose passive and not tight passive he def has a 4 in his range but you said hes TIGHT. He dont play hands with 4 in it unless its 44 that folds the flop.