Quote:
Originally Posted by TheSamasaurus
I really don't think raising flop makes any sense. Raising turn is better because your pair of aces is not likely to be good anymore, but only take this line if you think villain is capable of making folds or is a weak player
You played the hand great imo. Def don't raise flop your hand has showdown value against his range
After reading your comments and thinking about it again, I think check/call flop, check/raise turn is maybe a bit better than check/raise flop (which is what I was leaning towards). But I dont think its as simple as your earlier statement that we 'have two hands, so dont waste the made hand (aces) portion of it' (paraphrasing what you said before). Just because we have a made hand does not mean it really has showdown value. Here I think it actually has very little given the action. This needs to be evaluated on the flop, relative to the current situation, and then decide what kind of line we want to take. Are we comfortable check calling three streets on a random runout here? Two? Or just one? The less streets we can call consecutively on average, the less showdown value our made hand truly has. This is also pretty clearly a spot where we will face three barrels a lot (more on that in the next paragraph), so I think we had better be ready for that to happen. Being out of position further decreases showdown value of weak top pairs. Instead of taking a weak made hand to showdown, I prefer to utilize it for blocking potential and the extra draw value (the 3 is a clean out for two pair).
The pot limped to the BTN preflop who put in a raise, and then got called in three places. On the flop, he cbets into 3 people. At this point I dont think he has a lot of air unless he is playing mindlessly... his range is mainly clubs, good AXo, and AXs. If our intention is to check/call down unimproved, I think its probably losing. He will play well against our perceived check/call range which is pretty clearly a marginal AX and 44 (and 44 will go down in probability after we check/call turn). I personally dont like turning a marginal hand face up out of position. We are just guessing at that point and against decent players we wont do well. In position, I am looking to flat more streets... but thats a different situation, different story than being out of position.
I think we have to put in a raise before river. All this said I think this spot is just a crappy one due to being out of position and having limped preflop. A long story for why we shouldnt limp pre....