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Can I find a fold? Can I find a fold?

08-10-2018 , 08:57 AM
2/5 NL.

Villain is a pretty active and aggresive player, that hero took an entire stack from earlier when he attempted a bluff. The board was J722 and I had QJ. I bet 160 and he reraised to 400 leaving only 200 behind. After a lot of analyzing, and watching him look like he was bluffing, I shoved and took the remainder of his chips. He stood up, saying he was leaving, but came back fifteen minutes later. not a great player, just active.

Villain UTG. Effective stack 730
Hero small blind with AJ. Effective stack 1300

Villain raises to 30, MP and Button calls, and hero calls.

Flop Q86 off suit.

Hero checks and all players check.

Turn J

Hero bets 70. Villain calls, MP and Button fold.

River J

Hero bets 100, Villain think for a moment, then shoves for 630. Hero Calls.

My thought process was that Villain was a bit on tilt, and I had the nut three of a kind, so he might shove as light as J10 in this spot. The biggest problem is I don't see many bluffs that he could have here. What do you guys think?
Can I find a fold? Quote
08-10-2018 , 09:08 AM
Vs the villain/action you describe, absolutely not. He could be spazzing with a decent Q, worse J, or ****. Don't second guess yourself here.
Can I find a fold? Quote
08-11-2018 , 08:16 PM
It's not a call in the SB, especially not for 6bb. Either squeeze or fold. It's quite a big mistake to overcall this. Specifically at this SPR 4way where flopping 1pair is horrible [too deep to check/jam, deep enough to suffer on turns and rivers OOP]


Turn is not a bet, you're too weak to put money into the pot. I guess you can say they bet Qx on the flop too often, and they call turn too wide, so I don't hate it, but be aware you are too loose there.


River bet larger than 1/3. He can hero call here as all draws bust. He will call Qx almost certainly. And he can have Jx which always calls any size but would never raise. I think 1/3 size is a very big mistake here.


When he jams, it's quite the spot indeed. He reps a stronger hand, and most people don't bluff raise river all-in enough to call with bluffcatchers. But.. Maybe he is stupid and jams a worse Jx? Maybe he thinks your tiny size is weak and bluff jams TT/99/98? A lot of things go down in a 2/5 live game.. given the history posted, I don't blame you one bit for calling, might very well be a clear call.
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08-12-2018 , 07:13 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RichGangi
Vs the villain/action you describe, absolutely not. He could be spazzing with a decent Q, worse J, or ****. Don't second guess yourself here.
Thanks, I figured this was the case, but sometimes I vranalyze my hands too much and beat myself up over it.
Can I find a fold? Quote
08-12-2018 , 07:22 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by lnternet
It's not a call in the SB, especially not for 6bb. Either squeeze or fold. It's quite a big mistake to overcall this. Specifically at this SPR 4way where flopping 1pair is horrible [too deep to check/jam, deep enough to suffer on turns and rivers OOP]


Turn is not a bet, you're too weak to put money into the pot. I guess you can say they bet Qx on the flop too often, and they call turn too wide, so I don't hate it, but be aware you are too loose there.


River bet larger than 1/3. He can hero call here as all draws bust. He will call Qx almost certainly. And he can have Jx which always calls any size but would never raise. I think 1/3 size is a very big mistake here.


When he jams, it's quite the spot indeed. He reps a stronger hand, and most people don't bluff raise river all-in enough to call with bluffcatchers. But.. Maybe he is stupid and jams a worse Jx? Maybe he thinks your tiny size is weak and bluff jams TT/99/98? A lot of things go down in a 2/5 live game.. given the history posted, I don't blame you one bit for calling, might very well be a clear call.
Preflop: yeah, so much dead money I could have 3-bet and taken it all down. Probably better. Most preflop action in this game is super light though and super weak table that a reraise might get called anyway by weak players so it’s not always lucrative. Still 3-bet?

Turn. Nobody including the pre flop raiser bet the flop, what makes you believe that I’m weak on the turn. I was, but I would love to know what did you see that I’m missing here.

River: thanks, like I told rich I tend to over analyze and beat myself up haha.
Can I find a fold? Quote
08-12-2018 , 07:27 AM
i would do the same
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08-12-2018 , 09:45 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DannyAIC
Preflop: yeah, so much dead money I could have 3-bet and taken it all down. Probably better.
My definition of dead money is chips commited by people who have folded. No one who put in chips has folded yet, not even the BB, so wouldn't say there is a dead money here. It's just a 3bet or more specific squeeze with two highcards, which is good blockers and reasonable equity when called, which should realize fine at your stack depth.


Quote:
Originally Posted by DannyAIC
Most preflop action in this game is super light though and super weak table that a reraise might get called anyway by weak players so it’s not always lucrative. Still 3-bet?
If weak players call with hands that you're doing well against, it's just a value squeeze, and clearly the best play.


The other point there was also that you can't call preflop. That's losing money. You can also just fold, that's totally fine.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DannyAIC
Turn. Nobody including the pre flop raiser bet the flop, what makes you believe that I’m weak on the turn. I was, but I would love to know what did you see that I’m missing here.
There is a possible straight possible and you have second pair 4way. It's simply too weak to bet even for a single bet. Unless the other guys call you with 8x, 6x, and other weak draws, which they shouldn't, you are behind when called here.


Quote:
Originally Posted by DannyAIC
River: thanks, like I told rich I tend to over analyze and beat myself up haha.
Don't make simple excuses, don't say "haha". Poker is harsh capitalism. Do not allow yourself to be soft on mistakes.

What does "I tend to overanalyse" mean? It's an empty statement, to take the blame off and designed to make you feel good perhaps. This will not move you forward.

Identify your mistake clearly. That's the only way to learn from it.

Sorry if it comes off harsh but I always try name it how I see it.
Can I find a fold? Quote
08-12-2018 , 09:54 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by lnternet
My definition of dead money is chips commited by people who have folded. No one who put in chips has folded yet, not even the BB, so wouldn't say there is a dead money here. It's just a 3bet or more specific squeeze with two highcards, which is good blockers and reasonable equity when called, which should realize fine at your stack depth.




If weak players call with hands that you're doing well against, it's just a value squeeze, and clearly the best play.


The other point there was also that you can't call preflop. That's losing money. You can also just fold, that's totally fine.


There is a possible straight possible and you have second pair 4way. It's simply too weak to bet even for a single bet. Unless the other guys call you with 8x, 6x, and other weak draws, which they shouldn't, you are behind when called here.




Don't make simple excuses, don't say "haha". Poker is harsh capitalism. Do not allow yourself to be soft on mistakes.

What does "I tend to overanalyse" mean? It's an empty statement, to take the blame off and designed to make you feel good perhaps. This will not move you forward.

Identify your mistake clearly. That's the only way to learn from it.

Sorry if it comes off harsh but I always try name it how I see it.
I appreciate honesty myself. I actually have tons of notes where I blast stupid plays I make and break it down. Good to know I’m doing the right thing then
Can I find a fold? Quote
08-12-2018 , 04:27 PM
I guess I'll make the argument for folding, even though I agree with you guys.

- people don't bluff raise enough in general
- people don't bluff enough in live cashgames
- people usually don't make big bluffs after getting caught recently
- your hand looks like jx
- previous hand he commits himself with that bet, you didn't mention what he had, but you called fairly light..

His hand looks like qj, qq, 88, 66, t9, jx, in that order. Then missed straight draws or a weird spaz. The thing is, once he raises river, his range is weighted towards value here always, then thin value like T9 reading you as jx, and the least weight goes to bluffs, imo.. and he doesn't think you can fold. Lastly, you had a bluff tell in previous hand.. but not this one?
Can I find a fold? Quote
08-12-2018 , 09:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by goose58
I guess I'll make the argument for folding, even though I agree with you guys.

- people don't bluff raise enough in general
- people don't bluff enough in live cashgames
- people usually don't make big bluffs after getting caught recently
- your hand looks like jx
- previous hand he commits himself with that bet, you didn't mention what he had, but you called fairly light..

His hand looks like qj, qq, 88, 66, t9, jx, in that order. Then missed straight draws or a weird spaz. The thing is, once he raises river, his range is weighted towards value here always, then thin value like T9 reading you as jx, and the least weight goes to bluffs, imo.. and he doesn't think you can fold. Lastly, you had a bluff tell in previous hand.. but not this one?
That’s part of what I was beating myself up over. I didn’t take any time to think about the call. If I had I would have realize he played his bluff very differently from how he played this. He ended up having qj. I even felt like he had qj somehow but I didn’t follow through with it for some reason. It’s one of the weakest parts of my game, sometimes I get lost in the moment and don’t take a step back to analyze.
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08-13-2018 , 01:32 AM
+1 with Internet on Preflop and on Turn
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