Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
C-bet EV studying C-bet EV studying

05-16-2018 , 08:57 AM
I was studying the EV of CBETS relative to the board and the sizing of our open bet. I open from the CO with KJo and get called by the TAG BB. Based on our HUD stats he reraises with top 3% of his hands and calls with 10% from that position (this is obviously hypothetical for the sake of the exercise). The 2 flops I made my calculations on where 1) Ad Qs 4h and 2) 2d 3d 7c. I proceed to find my Fold% by counting the villain's preflop combinations and the combinations he continues with on the flop, as well as my hand's equity against his range on each board. Now I'm ready to calculate the EV of my C-Bet on each flop with different open-bet sizing and c-bet sizing (3x open with 60% cbet, 3x open with 30% c-bet, 2.25x open with 30% c-bet, 2.25x open with 60% c-bet).I assumed that we don't loose more if our C-Bet is called or raised, I also double checked all my results there are no mistakes.
My conclusions are that on a flop that we have more Fold% against villain's range we can c-bet more often than we can on a flop that we have more equity. Also it seems like 3x open preflop and 30% c-bet is more profitable than any other option (I've been opening for 2.25x for a lot of time now). I know this is not entirely true because there are plenty of factors that affect our play's EV but how do you find this overall? Am I on the right track?
C-bet EV studying Quote
05-16-2018 , 10:52 PM
Unfortunately it doesn't work so easily.

Preflop:
How much he calls and 3bets preflop will depend on your opening size. If his defense is constant: raise small with weak hands, raise big with strong hands.

Flop:

If you do
EV(cbet, he folds) = +pot
EV(cbet, no fold) = -(cbet amount)

it's off, because the second EV is very very different from losing the pot. Maybe you did instead

EV(cbet, no fold) = -(cbetamt)*(raise%) + ((pot+2*cbetamt)*(equity) - cbetamt)*(call%)

That's a bit better, but still very wrong. Because the EV when called isn't just equity*pot, it's way different than that because of future betting. Generally, being IP as aggressor, gotten called once, you have way more than equity*pot in EV.
C-bet EV studying Quote
05-17-2018 , 02:02 PM
You got me a bit confused. I want to find out if my c-bet is +ev at the flop changing board, sizing etc. I try to study cbets individually and move to other stuff so I think we gotta take some stuff for granted but not forget they actually aren't granted.
The formula I used if you were wondering that is:
EV= Fold%*Pot + Call%[Win%*(Pot+2*cbet) - Lose%*cbet]
This formula just calculates my C-Bet's EV at flop. To do that we have to keep some numbers stable, that's why I assume we don't loose more than cbet if we loose, and win just that if we win the pot. This means that ndobody reraises or bets on next streets. This is not realistic but I think its the best start to studying c-bets. Next I will study C-beting and double barelling on turn.
C-bet EV studying Quote
05-21-2018 , 02:18 PM
Quote:
EV= Fold%*Pot + Call%[Win%*(Pot+2*cbet) - Lose%*cbet]

This means that nobody raises or bets on next streets.
That's exactly correct. But it's a simplification. I'm not sure what this number is supposed to help you with, as it's just a very rough estimate.

Maybe you can program it as a notecaddy stat to see in one number how aggro someone is vs flop bets in general?

Not sure what use you have for it.
C-bet EV studying Quote

      
m