1/2, 9 handed, $225 effective.

Villain has been at the table for one rotation. He used to deal, doesn't recognize hero. He's friends with the two extreme LAGs at the table, if that means anything. So far I've seen villain raise pre once and take the flop down with a c bet and has also limped three hands, one of which was just a limped pot, one time a raise was put in and he folded, another time he called a raise. That's all I have on villain. So far hero has folded every hand with villain at the table.

OTTH

Villain limps UTG, hero raises to $15 +2 with Q J and only villain calls.

Flop ($33): J 7 3. Villain checks, hero bets $15, villain raises to $57 and hero calls.

Turn ($147): 2. Villain shoves for $153. Hero?

I have absolutely no idea what to make of this, but I guess fold? If he's loose pre, this could easily be J7 or 33. 77 is also possible. It's either a monster or complete air, and I think a big hand is more likely. Him being friends with LAGs doesn't automatically make him one.

I guess I'm not sure why we're calling flop if we're not calling here -- you were hoping the backdoor would start coming in or something?

I think you can probably fold to the flop raise. He seems a little bit loose based on one orbit, but that's just such a small sample that you have no way of knowing if he was dealt AA/77/66/22 precisely, which would make sense for a raise, three limps, one of which folded and one of which called a raise.

x flop

I think you have a valid point about having to call here after calling flop. Folding the flop seemed way too tight, but I did consider it because of his raise sizing vs texture. I called because we have top pair, in position, can improve/pick up equity on the turn, and because there's not many nutted hands/would he really be playing a set or 2p like this?

Maybe calling the flop was a mistake. I didn't like getting x-r because I didn't know the right move and just called. Is the flop just a fold?

Why? Bone dry board that we have a serious range advantage on, with two possible overs to come on the turn

"Don't call flop to fold turn" is always terrible advice. Especially on super dry boards, if you have a high cbet frequency some players will x/r any pair and then check turns. You can't just develop the mindset of a station, and this turn call would be bad, and a flop fold would also be bad.

So you're suggesting villain is super wide on this flop with his x-r, yet his continuing range OTT is exclusively nutted hands?

I'm fine with pre and flop. I probably just fold the turn. He could be bluffing, but what with? A7? He could easily have AJ, J7, 33, KJ. The only hand we are really ahead of is JT, but that's pretty unlikely. He could also be slow-playing AA/KK.

I fold, try to get him to show (never show yourself) and wait for a better spot when we have more info.

I call this. V been at table and played 50% hands. JX is nuts for him.

Edit Fold if your bankroll light. He will present a better spot

Fold. We haven't seen enough of villain to make this call.

We should be folding turn, very easy fold given the lack of draws on this board and villain's passive tendencies indicated by limping preflop. I wonder if we should be folding flop - the only cards we really like are a Q or J, and we probably don't have the equity to call it off on a spade. Very exploitable but I really doubt villain is taking this line as a bluff often enough.

What are we calling here with? AJ+?

Yep.

If this is the range we put V on, we don't have odds to peel the flop. We're getting 2:1 immediate and about 5.5:1 immediate+implied if V shoves the turn every time. We will not have odds to call for just the spade draw if our backdoor starts coming in (since we'll be getting 2:1 on the turn again), so we really only have 5 cards that improve us, and sometimes we're behind a set and still crushed even if we make two pair or trips.

So if I'm calling the flop (because I think V's range is wider and includes things like 88-TT, A7, A3, T9/T8/98, worse Js, etc), it's with the intent of calling off on the turn, because this situation is too WA/WB already.

Your range is pretty narrow when you iso UTG from +2. Exploit-folding flop is fine against most live players, even with the BDFD, but if you're calling flop then turn seems like a standard fold on a brick. This should be very close to the bottom of your range here. I'm not stationing him off just because of the dealer-spewtard stereotype.

Calling flop with the intention of always calling a brick turn is a leak, not the other way around. Our opponents are leaking if they don't have any turn give-ups. Most of our EV is realized by seeing our opponent check turn to us, not by improving.

FWIW the key to playing this hand is thinking about the range your opponent put you on. AA,KK, QQ JJ are in your range but are not in Vs range.

I hate the smallish flop bet because it makes it harder to tell if he checkraised a hand or because he sensed weakness. I like a lead of $20 or more better.

Fold flop, fold turn

I don't like betting 2/3 on the driest board ever

you don't know what he limp/calls so you don't know if you have a serious range adv
even if he's loose it's less of massive adv you might think, you might be 55% on flop, no more really
it still makes sense you'd have some x/ on flop, your weaker tps protect the rest of your check backs from your opp probing turns and barreling rivers at his discretion

but granted you can get away with a range cb , though prob not with this sizing. 25/30%p bet is what a standard range cb would look like

ap, if you were playing a perfect opp you'd flip a coin to know if you bluff catch with your top pairs
do you think this opp bluffs more or less often? i.e. how much 65s/54s/T9s/98s/T8s/A5s/A4s do you think the guy a) limp/calls pre and b) take this line post

Sometime I agree with the "if I call flop, I call turn," but this isn't one of those times. My range is on the turn, not the flop. Lots of players will try stealing the flop, especially one's that used to deal, have LAG friends, etc., but they give up on the turn. This guy followed through, and we don't know what that means yet. I'll wait to get more info before committing my stack with top pair, OK kicker.