5/10 Bellagio
BB with QT
$1500

Villain (UTG+1) appears to be a good reg, and playing a tight range.
UTG seems loose.

With your call/fold decision for river... Would like to know what range you give him preflop, and turn after he decides to just flat.

UTG call 10
UTG+1 raise 50
All fold to me
I call 40
UTG fold

Flop Q T 7 (110)

I check
UTG bet 50
I raise 180
UTG call 180

Turn Q T 7 9 (470)

I bet 380 (roughly 850 behind after this bet)
UTG call 380

River Q T 7 9 3 (1230)

I check
UTG bet 710
Me?

i like check/call on the river. we can imagine a lot of bluffs and don’t block many hands V would bomb with otr

I made an error in the OP ... All action postflop is from UTG+1.

Preflop history in OP is correct.

I agree that this is a situation where it looks like a good call b/c V can have many bluffs but then again if you don't have a strong read or V is a bad player I still think it is a fold.

I looks like one hand and one hand only AQ

Just imagine you are holding AQ in his spot and the whole hand makes sense

I mean what do you think he is calling the flop and turn with?

KJ gets there, and so does the flush.

He can't really call the turn bet with KK+ or AQ and if he did all those hands should check back river.

The only bluff you beat is like AdKc or AdQs. Maybe AdJx or Ad5x. I really doubt a player is going to call 2 streets though just to try and bluff a diamond river if it comes.

As for pre flop I dunno about calling UTG+1 5x open with QcTc vs a strong player but I guess it's fine sometimes.

I'm pretty sure river is a fold, even if you did beat him. Horrible run out

I probably only call this vs the crazys or maybe someone I have a lot of history with that is trying to level me.

I’m surprised this is an easy fold for many posters, especially Bellagio 5/10.

River call is 710 to win 1940
710/(710+1940) = ~27%

Can we be good here ~1/4 times? There should be enough bricked combo draws, pair+blocker hands, and possibly even Ad X hands for us to call.

Seems like a very standard check/call, sure we lose more than we win but win enough for it to be profitable.

ya from basic math - but live players just don't float 2 streets to bluff rivers. Any 2 pair combo he had is ripping it on flop or turn. He probably rips AA and KK on this flop too because it's draw heavy.

I think he bluffs this river 15% of the time at best! Every thing else is value. What hands is a 5x open from UTG+1 that play it like this and than bluff river?

I guess AdQx is the only hand I can think of.

MAYBE AdKx but I would think that hand folds turn.


One thing I will say is I really don't like your turn bet. IT should be at least POT or over pot. You probably won't get any more value if you hit, and you are going to hate like half the deck in rivers and be forced to check call. Any (AKJ86 or diamond and maybe even a heart sucks)

I played a hand similar to this and got the max

$1000 effective

Hero has AhKd
Villain opens to $20
Call
Hero $80
call
call

$250~
AdKc6s

check
check
Hero $130
Call
Fold

$510
Jc
check
Hero All in
Call

$2150~
6h

Villain shows AcTc

So I got a lot more value by ripping turn. And if he folds that's fine too, since he had 25% equity and pot was 100 BB.

From your description of villain (good reg who is playing a tight range), the only hands here that even make sense are AdQd, KhJh, and AhTh. The way this played, I almost cannot imagine seeing anything else turned up.

For me, this river is almost certainly a check-fold (although if I had more than $1,000 behind at the river, maybe I try leading for $350 or $400, but then am prepared to fold if he moves all-in).

I think I probably should fold here.

The problem I have with this spot is I think he will only show up with (preflop action has a lot of relevance here) AJdd, AQdd, AKdd here and rarely bluffs. He may bet KQdd sometimes but sometimes check. QJdd, 89dd check. I will have Axdd in my river check range here sometimes (maybe 20%) because I need to protect against times like these where I am checking a non flush made hand ... So KQdd, QJdd, KJ, AA, KK, 77 (if he has 77, I tend to think no) all are going to have to be careful on this river. Even without reads on me I think villain will often check these or bet very small. Given this I dont beat any of his value range.

So that leaves me with him having a range of AJdd, AQdd, AKdd, rarely KQdd and ??? bluffs. It feels weird to say he never has a bluff here, but maybe he really doesnt. Its not something I like to claim often and this isnt a spot that really feels like no bluffs, although its quite hard to imagine he gets to the river with a bluff. He would have to be fairly creative on the flop or turn.

I am going with fold personally. In game I called and he showed AJdd.

My mistake for my notes was not really considering what his bluff range looked like. I basically stopped thinking when I realized how few value hands he could have, and regardless of results, that is definitely an error.

Okay you say villian is going to rip it on flop or turn if they have it. You do realize they are $1500 eff to start the hand? I also heavily agree with turn has to be huge. Also like your explanation. I feel like you get two views for this spot. A very good gto style player will never fault you for ck/c river. Some “seasoned live players” will have your stance.

I love your explanation of why you should fold here and this is why I think some really good theory based players will call river here to often and loose here. (They make up for these loosing call heavily in other areas where players like us don’t make as much)

Also, did you take into consideration sizing up on the turn. Is a double flush board not a spot where you overbet turns? I think it’s critical

Looks like a c/f

This.

A good theory-(based) player will know the frequency at which they are supposed to fold in this spot (according to MDF with range advantage caveats), However, unless they are new to live poker, they also realize that live 5/10 players, even pros, do not have enough bluffs in this situation, so they will reduce their calling frequency by referencing their own hand range, which they are able to visualize in a ranked list of sorts, based on a combination of showdown and blocker/reverse blocker value.

Personally, if I called with this hand, I would do it based on randomization. Calling all of my QTs would have me calling with virtually all of my hands. Also, important to note is the fact that good pros will discount your chance of having a flush and could be jamming sets and straights as well.

First, sets and straights aren't flatting this turn on a two flush board with a feasible straight draw, and then betting river after letting the flop flush draw get there. This just doesn't seem even remotely likely, to me anyway. Hands like KK and AA (although not necessarily all combos) seem more likely for villain to flat turn with, and as part of my analysis I did ask myself the question: would he bet some AA or KK on river? If you think my range after checking river has very few diamonds and he would (if he had them on river) bet some non flush value hands, that edges QTs more towards a call *because* I believe the ones he does flat turn with, I beat. I personally dont think he bets non flush value hands on river though.

Second, there are only two combinations of QTs here, but a) I have weaker hands than this in my range, AQ mainly (a lot of combos relatively speaking), and b) *some* of those AQ may make for better folds than QTs, although I think there are arguments both ways on that.

Definitely I will not be calling with QTs here all the time. I dont always randomize by the cards I have and in this case there is no difference between QTcc and QTss. I probably fold here 95%+, hence this post, because I feel like I didnt properly think it all the way through in game.

This is a good point regarding turn, since there is less than 2/3 psb to be left for river play, as many pros are just jamming straights and flushes most of the time in my experience as well. Perhaps this is due to the fact that it is easy to make a theoretical mistake on the river, and most players never fire the 3rd barrel unless it is 3/4 psb or greater.

Interesting - I didn't comment on what your strategy was, as I didn't know it, only my own personal strategy in calling QTs 100% of the time here.

For randomization, when there is no difference, I personally just use the rank order of suits, so in this case, I may even call spades here and fold clubs. This is still a passive strategy for sure, given that players (as described) don't have enough bluffs on the river in my experience, but not crazy since I have some sets and don't have AQ. If you have AQ in your check-raising range, that certainly should change your river strategy in some way.

I think you're range is often dominated preflop and you are in a terrible position going to a flop. I would prefer to call w/ hands that work a little better against his range KQs, KJs, JTs, 9Ts. If UTG+1 is a tighter player i think he could still be opening over a potential fish w/ most of the suited Ax maybe A9s-AKs + A2s-A5s, KJs, KQs, QJs, JTs and some suited connectors. If UTG+1 is a good player then he will be isolating the fish a bit lighter KQo, KTs, QTs etc. I think on the river it is relatively hard for him to be bluffing after calling a flop x r and such a large bet on the turn. The only hands i can think of would be JTs, QTs and KTs of hearts or 89s of hearts. I think it is more likely that he has some sort of pair + flush draw or combo draw that has hit on the river. The line on the river i think that would be most ideal would be x fold.

I mean we are literally nut low of our value range.

Also B 5/10 plays really nitty on rivers so on board with either a $200/fold to shove or xf

Fold pre. You're essentially cold calling a 3bet range from EP with QT which is just bad.

Flop I like a small lead, or check call. If you're gonna check/raise, go bigger like 250 since you're trying to rep a big combo draw. But I like check/call flop better.

Turn bet is pretty optimistic. Whatever.

River is a pretty easy fold, not worried about getting exploited here and he can easily have a flush.

What kind of "good reg with a tight range" is going to turn his Pair+ hands into a bluff on the river?

How many combo draws could he have on that flop which bricked by the river?

Unless hero has the image of someone easily bluffed, I don't see how 2p is good even 1/8 times in this spot.

Preflop if UTG limper is a bad rec player with no l/rr range then the call is ok but mostly this is just a fold preflop

w/o history and w/o him thinking you're a nit/overfolding rivers I think you'll find not enough bluffs in villain's range and it's probably a good spot to overfold vs the 5/10 population.

Because he's isoing from so early position all of his bluffs have some showdown value except AKhh AJhh. I think you'll find that the hands that should be bluff candidates like JdJx, JTs either fold flop, turn, or check back river hoping for that sliver of showdown value. So if he only bluffs AJhh AKhh all the time, that's not enough bluffs for the amount of flushes/KJs he has.

FWIW even in GTO land I don't expect QT to be a pure call on the river.

This is an easy fold otr. Your only beating a bluff you raise the flop bet the turn and for some reason some people think he might bluff when your playing extremely strong line going into the river. He is almost never bluffing here and pretty obvious hes going for some thin value with a straight or back door flush. Its even possible he flopped a set that he decided to slow play to the river.

Seems like a trivial fold.

Seem like very easy bet on flop . Why did you check ? I really dislike that x-r.