i think it’s very hard for us to have qq or tt after preflop. utg+1 has all sets so we’d get raised a lot and be kinda unhappy? not sure we can balance a lead range on this flop

I think the call of the flop check-raise really limits him to top pair+ hands, and huge combo draws. Calling the turn bet kind of seals it right there. He doesn't have any two pair hands except QTs which is still very loose!

These are the main hands I see calling a flop check-raise and makes it to the river:
AdKd beats u
AdQ would check back
AdA would check back, I think there is a non-zero probability non-diamond AA folds on turn
KdK would check back, I think there is a non-zero probability non diamond KK folds on turn
KdJd beats u
Jd9d, 9d8d beats u (but might be too loose for a tight player UTG)
QQ,TT,77 less likely since they should've raised u hard on flop or turn.
QTs chop!

fold pre

well he has AJdd he has all KJs QJdd and no QQ TT and 77 ( which our opponent would rarely iso with) should just be flatting a raise on the flop. We actually don't have reraise range the flop. Your supposed to flat with your entire range here goiong to the turn on this board texture. So he still has QQ and TT here. I also thing he has QJdd and defintely has KQdd over a hand like 77 that isn't a good iso hand cause it doesn't flop well. I would be isoing with all these against a limper ip. Unless villain is a nit this is a fair amount of hands villain has going to the turn.

So on the turn he bet very big and imo its to big. The reason is now hands like AA, AQ should actually be folding here EXCEPT AQdd. Maybe calling with KK since it blocks KJ. So vilains value range is even more narrow going to the river because of this big turn bet now its mostly big hands and big pairs with diamonds and hearts, possible straights

Going to the river. The only hands he can turn into a bluff is maybe QJhh or KQs but its not realistic.. It would be a isildur world class kind of player turning top pair into a bluff to get you off 2 pair. And its a great play to do but people don't tend to do it cause have show down value even though they kind of expect to be beat. When he bets the river its pretty much a flush. Now I think about it even sets check river hes not expecting a call from worse. So basically your gonna see AJ- AKdd KQdd-QJdd and all the KJs hands almost every time here = QT is easy fold here. The big turn bet ruined a hero call on the river for me. Forget the QT 2 pair actually thats easy fold i would even easily fold set of 7s and Ts. Its not realistic for him to go for value with 2 pair here either. THe only hands i wold hero call here with are QQ with the Qd and KQ with Kd. We have better shot with those because at least it blocks AK and AQ dd and hes very polarized on this river bet. But id probably take a shot of whiskey and fold those too unless it was a sicko like isildur, dwan, jungleman a more creative player that will gamble in spot like that.

sorry posted twice

If he bluffs greater than 27% call, less than 27% fold.

You raise flop with qt, sets and your bluffs are mostly flush draws or KJ. This is the absolute bottom of your range unless you play very poorly and raise aq on the flop or flat pre with J9s and make what is a pretty bad bluff raise.

There’s no way it’s an optimal check:call. You’d rather check/call with Kj that includes a diamond, sets that have a diamond and maybe even low flushes. If anything this should be a gto bluff (and one of your only bluffs) targeting overpairs balanced with your big flushes.