Yes, that's what Ben Ward suggests.
But when I thought about it, if you have one diamond, you also block one of his outs in case he has a semibluff.
So, I tried to run the numbers in flopzilla:
Villain Range when bets (mixing values and semibluffs):
JJ-99,AJo-ATo,KQo-KJo,QJo,JTo,AJs-A2s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T8s,98s:a5b8a5b1a150:a10b1a5:a16:a16
https://imgur.com/a/BctApSg
If I don't put my hand, he has 30,8% semibluffs.
If I have KK with no diamond, he has 27,2% semibluffs.
If I have KK with
, he has 26,4% semibluffs.
(So there's no much difference in his semibluffs whether or not I have the diamond, but, yes, there's more chance he has semibluff when I've got a diamond. Logical).
For informational purposes, we have something more difference when instead of KK we have AA:
AA with no diamond: 34% semibluffs.
AA with
: 28,1% semibluffs.
This is because we would block the ace of diamonds, which blocks many more of its possible semibluffs...
Ok, BUT, that is when I think: what is really important when deciding whether to fold or not is our equity, right?
Let's see... Against villain range, If we have:
KK with no diamond: 59,4% equity
KK with
: 61,1% equity
AA with no diamond: 64,5% equity
AA with
: 66,1% equity
even QQ with no diamond: 57,5% equity
QQ with
: 59,3% equity...
!!
imo, this means that it's better to fold when we do NOT have a diamond, isn't it?
Ok, we may have put an unrealistic range, so let's change it a bit to try to get closer to the point where it would be good for our equity not to have a diamond.
Let's remove from villain's range all the middle hands we put (AJ, KJ, QJ, 99 ...), those that which we would be ahead with our KK (or QQ, AA).
That is, we'll leave a range only with hands that beat us (Tx and JJ) and draws: oesd and flushdraws.
Now we have, when holding:
KK with no diamond: 37,5% equity
KK with
: 39,3% equity
AA with no diamond: 46,8% equity
AA with diamond: 45,9% equity
Yep! Now we have a different situation, now it's slightly better to fold when we have diamond in the case we have aces (because A
blocks a huge part of their flushdraws). But in the case of having KK, we still have more equity when we have a diamond.
So, imo, it's still better to fold when we DO NOT have a diamond in our KK.
Ok, let's change it more. Let's give him a lot of flushdraws, using K
and Q
:
https://imgur.com/a/FxAlxu9
now we have, when holding:
KK with no diamond: 45,1% equity
KK with
: 46,0% equity
AA with no diamond: 50,3% equity
AA with
51,0% equity
Again, we have better equity when we have a diamond, so it's still (imo) better to fold when we DO NOT have
.
What do you think?
Thanks!