Eff stack sizes 100bb

Hero (CO) raises to 18 with AKdd, BTN calls, BB calls.

Flop (57) 5 2 2

Checks to hero who bets 28, BTN flats, BB folds.

Turn (113) K

Hero bets 55, BTN raises to 185, Hero ??

BTN stats are: 26% VPIP, 19% PFR, 6% 3bet, 29% cbet, 20% WTSD, 67% W$SD% over 2000 hands (however these stats include HU, 6max, 9max and cannot be filtered)

First time i played with BTN, therefore not much info except the stats. Seems like a simple call at first glance but i can't figure what hands he is raising me with OTT.

I see him showing up with many A2s, 55, 22... would he be turning his other medium PPs into bluffs (66, 77..) or even 78dd, 67dd.

Appreciate all input

I'd size for a 3-street plan from this flop. This texture allows you to push through JJ+ for stacks for value a fair bit, so I'd set up for this by starting with a 6bb cbet. But shouldn't matter much at all.

Turn you are costing yourself value by going only 9bb. I don't really understand why you bet so small here. It's not like he can even thin value raise anything so that'd you'd sometimes want to bet your strongest hands tiny. I think around 20bb turn bet size would be best (~pot size, maybe even up to 150%).

When he raises, well you can't jam and you can't fold, so it's a pretty automatic call. If he jams a blank river then we have a situation.

For his range, since 55, 22 might just call turn, and AK, A2s hardly get flatted pre, not much makes sense for value. For bluffs, any FD or A4 A3 64 type hand, some 5x or 66-TT going for a move, are possible. Wouldn't say it's too much either, but he's still weighted strongly to those.

Looking at the stats of BTN, looks like a typical disciplined tight player and not aggressive at all given low cbet and 3bet. Also, you block a ton of his bluffing range with AKdd. Not a good situation, but getting too good of a price to fold so have to call and evaluate. Just feels like he's heavily weighted to value raises here, raising a turn card that hits your range and is unlikely to get folds. Bluffs like 34 are getting such a good price to draw IP.

Agreed here..AKdd is a good 3 barrel candidate.Well improve often and when we dont most of villains hand with SD will fold by river.

spadez

I agree with sizing up of flop and turn here. An overbet here is interesting...i think the question is if we over bet with this hand do we balance with JJ+ here??.

It would be much scarier, if the BB had called the flop and raised the turn. I don't see much point in BTN's raise, i would want to let my opponent bluff, if I have the goods. But of course, everyone has their own way of thinking.

Internet, dont you like 33% range cbet there? Its fairly popular today because its easier to play without a checking back range there, we can threaten stacks by overbetting turn and river

He's 26/19 so his range is WIDE. I'm going to assume he is recreational player and not a pro. We can include A2s, any 52s, 23s, 42s etc. 55, 22 here all day.

His 3bet is 6%, kinda standard tight range. This would suggest he is not a big bluffer and I'd like to see an 'aggression' stat also to confirm this.

He flats all his marginal hands on this bad turn (for him). Definitely raises trips and boats. If you haven't seen any kind of tilt from him, this isn't a bluff.

As the board is paired you are hugely behind with the TP/NTFD. Your hand looks pretty, but it means nothing if you're behind. Well played to the turn for value but I fold unless your think he floats Kx and raises Kx turn for value. I'd like to know how often he floats air on the flop but most recreationals just fold flops they miss. It's also $600 NL, so for a recreational that is big money....I think spew, bluffs, over valuing TP is just so uncommon in this spot.

Anyone disagree please chime in.

Thanks for all the input, especially the critiques about my bet sizing. Makes a bunch of sense that i'm losing value by betting tiny OTT. Also, perhaps it was my tiny bet which induced a raise?

I also wonder what are we doing with KK/55 in this spot in relations to bet sizing.

I ended up folding the turn (which majority disagree and I can see why); think the next time I could size larger OTT and call a raise, see a river and then elect to fold to a jam. Just had the sinking feeling that he was nutted in this spot.

I really don't like your hand on the paired board, I'm folding turn also. On an unpaired board I call the turn and evaluate the river. Check/call small river bet if we miss the FD.

In general it's great to have an easy strategy to fall back on. I think 33% here with 100% of hands even works, so why not do that.

But here
- 3way you can't just bet 100% usually
- OOP you can't just bet 100% usually
- low board, where you don't want to bet 33% size usually