Villain 1 is middle aged, serious hobbyist, about a bottle and a half of wine and two joints in. Had started off fairly tight, folding a lot to our 3bets, as he has started drinking more he's gotten looser and more aggressive and now is on a pretty big heater. He's made 3 or 4 absolute monster overbets, one time he showed down the dead nuts, one time top pair to lose to two pair, I'm pretty sure another time was a bluff.

Villain 2 is a young rec, he pays off the winning hand too much, pretty passive preflop, will overvalue and raise hands postflop.

Hero has kind of a loose in the front, tight in the back image. We're not over-cbetting, we've been kind of card dead for a couple hours before this hand. We've been folding a lot to 3bets and postflop aggression though.

Hand is $2.2k effective.

V1 opens to $40
V2 calls
Hero 3bets JsJc from the small blind to $200
V1 calls
V2 folds

Flop is Ks7s2c
Hero cbets $225
V1 immediately announces raises to $1400
Hero?

I would put V1 on

Hands that crush you - 77, 22,K7(clubs, heats or diamonds), KQ-K9 - 57 hands total
AK AND KK would have raised pre flop so out of range.

Possible hands you are ahead of - A2 A7 Q7(maybe) spades - 3

I’d say his range has you crushed. You should fold. You can only win this hand if your J trip up (8%) or if he is bluffing w total air (10%).

Just move on to the next hand. When a dude is playing like this you'll get him later, hes just too likely to make this move with k-10 or something.

You give him such a wide range pre, but don't include any bare flush draws here, you think he's only ever raising combos draws? If he has k7s or q7s here ever, he has tons and tons of flush draws in his preflop range at least. If he's calling k7s, he likely has every suited axs, lots of suited connectors. He doesn't need to be doing this with too too many of them to make this a +ev call. And drunk, aggressive players generally love getting aggro with flush draws.

I don't think this hand is necessarily a call, but I'm tempted to. It doesn't sound like villain only does this with the nuts. I think what tilts me towards fold is the read that he overbets huge with top pair as well. If he were more polar and this was either 2p+ or a fd, I think a call would be better, but as someone pointed out if he's doing this with k10 we're ****ed. I think it's much better to just fold here, call with any top pair+.

Why are you cbetting?

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I figure V's most likely Kx to call with PF is KJ and KQ so since I block the KJ it feels like a decent cbet.

It's a fair point, based on this player style (wasted maniac over-betting) his range probably includes every flush-draw, every King, and maybe even A-7 every now and then.

VincentVega had it spot-on - this guy is going to give away his stack in the imminent future, we can find a far better spot than this against his potential range which likely dominates us.

Fold.

Its frustrating when people are spazzing and money is flying around, but stay disciplined. I think its a stretch to call here.

We have the J which, given that villain called a 3bet preflop, does matter I think. This cuts down a decent number of possible flush draw combos because a good chunk of his preflop calling range will be the suited broadways. He probably has a lot of other junk in there but not enough to call a 7x raise with a second pair hand.

I might also bet smaller on the flop?

Flop cbet size is awful
This is another spot where you bet every hand in your range for 25-33%

Yeah I love a 1/4 pot cbet here

And snap fold to the raise of course.
U have about 60% equity vs his bluffs and 5% equity vs his value range.
Not to mention there’s money behind which does not work in our favor

cbet 1/3 size is standard, but 1/2 is fine especially a bit deeper


Against a huge raise like his you are allowed to fold a lot. You can't fold everything but flopped pairs and FD, like you have to defend some QQ JJ TT and AQb, but few.


In my experience, large raises like this are overweight good draws and medium strong hands. Like a range of mostly FD and KQ fits here. Against which it's a pretty simple fold.


So I wouldn't overthink it. GTO it's a fold ~80-90%, based on experience 100% fold, so just fold.

I think its an easy fold esp against this guy. More interesting question is how far down in our range are we fist pumping getting it in? AA yea. AK yea but not fist pump. KQ? KJ?

you know what you want to put for hero= END BOSS. I would just fold and wait for better spot instead of playing a guessing game to such a big raise is not a good spot to gamble. I rather just gii with flush draw or something. If he has K your prett much crushed here. Not worth game imo

ez fold think the cbet was fine though

It would help to know where V1 and V2 are located. I'm thinking it is probably a fold though. You should call with any king or better.

1/4 flop c-bet is too small guys. There is a flush draw and it doesn't really accomplish much. 1/3 to 1/2 is much better imo.

The only evidence we actually have with his massive overbets is that 2 of 2 times we saw his hand he had top pair at worst and the nuts at best. The 3rd time we don't know and it's not clear if he's picked up his frequency of these overbets after drinking or being on the heater.

He's folded to our 3-bets often, but calls here. There probably aren't many flush draws he has left in his range... AQs, ATs, QTs? Our Js is a blocker. Maybe some lower connectors if he's loosened up in that way, but either way there aren't many of these hands in his range and even if he has one JJ isn't a huge favorite.

Back of the envelope tells me there's more Kx+ in his range than flush draws, that JJ is a bigger dog vs. Kx+ than is a favorite vs. the flush draws, and that it's more likely this guy has Kx+ given what we've seen from his massive overbets.