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10NL I folded pocket kings today 10NL I folded pocket kings today

10-22-2018 , 07:17 AM
This may be the very first time I folded KK to a 4-bet from the original raiser.

I am sitting with a nice $37.39 stack. My opponent has me well covered with $69.16 behind. Here is the action:

My opponent opens in HJ to $0.35
I 3-bet to $1.05 with K K
HJ jams all-in
I fold

I'm not sure I've ever found a good spot to fold KK preflop, but this may be it. Opposition is a tight aggressive player and I have a hard time seeing anything but AA here ever. Being 370BBs deep this seems like a reasonable fold to me.

Do you like my fold?

At what point in terms of BBs are you indifferent between calling and folding?
10NL I folded pocket kings today Quote
10-22-2018 , 08:08 AM
hahaha this isnt real is it?
10NL I folded pocket kings today Quote
10-22-2018 , 08:14 AM
Why would a player want to jam all in with pocket Aces here...unless you yourself are such a nit that you never ever raise unless you have KK or AA, but even then, villain wouldn't need to shove all in to take your money.
I don't understand your fold.
10NL I folded pocket kings today Quote
10-22-2018 , 08:20 AM
I assume tight aggressive player means he is a reg? I doubt he will shove anything else than AA 300bb+ so good fold. If he is a fish I would call.
10NL I folded pocket kings today Quote
10-22-2018 , 08:23 AM
If he is a reg that's even more reason to call, because the line is BS.
10NL I folded pocket kings today Quote
10-22-2018 , 08:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheGodson
Do you like my fold?
Not really.
10NL I folded pocket kings today Quote
10-22-2018 , 08:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by haqpod
I assume tight aggressive player means he is a reg? I doubt he will shove anything else than AA 300bb+ so good fold. If he is a fish I would call.
What kind of a regtatd 4bet shove 300+ in this situation?
10NL I folded pocket kings today Quote
10-22-2018 , 09:01 AM
#suicidebywords.

No I dont like the fold. I'm not sure there is even a bb threshold in which I'm ever folding. Could of easily of been a misclick or even like AK.
10NL I folded pocket kings today Quote
10-23-2018 , 06:41 AM
I don't know guys we are pretty deep.

I did some math. Let's say I was 3-betting super loose with 104 combos and only defended with AA (6 combos). 6/104 = 5.77%. With an ace blocker it would be 3/85 = 3.53%. I'm going to assume if he is taking this line as a bluff he needs at least an ace blocker since those are the best bluffing hands.

He is risking 37.04 / ( 37.04 + .035 + 1.05 + 0.1 + 0.05) = 95.98%
Best case scenario is he could have A5s vs. AA giving him 13.30% equity

Now for the EV calc:

(.9647 * 1.55) + .0353 * (.1330 * 38.59 - .8670 * 37.04) = .54 cents

I'm a bit surprised. In a best case scenario he is winning 54 cents. This, of course, assumes I am 3-betting quite wide and that he knows I am folding KK which he probably isn't expecting.

I was actually expecting most of you to agree that my fold was correct so this was certainly interesting to see a lot of the opposite. I did not consider the possibility of misclicking before which can definitely happen. Still, I'm not certain he does this with anything but AA given it wasn't a misclick. My calc shows a best case scenario. Versus this guy I 3-bet quite a bit tighter and he seems pretty straight forward. A lot of things have to be right for this bluff to even be profitable and even when it is, it is quite marginal.
10NL I folded pocket kings today Quote
10-23-2018 , 08:07 AM
5.4bb is quite the profitable bluff actually

My gut feeling was that we should call some non AA hands at some frequency. Clearly calling KK everytime isn't correct at least theory wise. I'd call in game regardless because who knows what this guy is doing..

Good analysis btw.
10NL I folded pocket kings today Quote
10-23-2018 , 03:21 PM
If he seems at all like a decent player and not a fish, I think it's a good fold. Why would he risk almost 370bb to take your 10bb 3 bet? Nobody folds KK in your spot (normally) and he gets paid big time.

I've done this just to get a spazz call. I've also made the spazz call and lost.
10NL I folded pocket kings today Quote
10-24-2018 , 02:54 PM
This is the correct play imo. doesn't matter what stakes, you're 300bb deep.

If you have no prior reads and are so little invested, you can fold KK here.
10NL I folded pocket kings today Quote

      
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