Looks good, except the size needs to be bigger. $650 I think. You're essentially asking him to fold AQ and AK with this raise, so 520 just feels too easy.
The runout combined with having both the Jc make this a great bluff candidate. We are losing to his value range as well, and all of them except clubs (which he has very few, given our Jc and the Ac and Kc on board) and JT are going to have a tough time.
One thing to keep in mind here is that our hand blocks clubs and straights but it also blocks top pair combos that we are hoping he folds. With situations like this you need an analysis tool to make sure he is folding enough hands to make this raise better than folding.
Another thought: against a tight opponent, you could consider folding the turn because he did get called in two places (which tends to really slow down tight players) and both the flop and turn bets were 3-way. On the turn we are blocking club draws and straight draws that we hope he has, and are losing to virtually all of his conceivable Ax. This makes the turn a weird spot, for the same reasons that river looks like a good bluff opportunity.
I might prefer a turn fold, but as played I like the river raise (just size it up next time).
Nice hand, you're picking one of your best candidates to bluff in a spot where you definitely want a raising eange. But if villian is unknown you may want to consider not having a bluffing range on this particular board. Most players are unlikely to fold AK so it's really only AQ... personally I would wait until a player demonstrates themselves to be a reg before making an effort to balance when they have a clear range advantage, just overfold until your 2nd or 3rd session together
As others have mentioned you could fold turn
Last edited by TheSamasaurus; 02-16-2019 at 06:45 PM.
Fold turn unless you are specifically floating to bluff river. As others said, he is unlikely to not have a super strong hand here as played. Raise on river is pretty cool, as said this is one of your best hands to turn into a bluff. But sizing is definitely too small. I would go polar here instead. Maybe 700? At least 650...
Unless villain is some total spewy fish , what do we beat vs Utg range that barrels 3 streets ? I would also fold turn when he fires again in to two people.
Honestly I don't love preflop. On river if you're raising you need to raise at least a little bigger. Most villain's aren't folding AK here unless there's some special dynamic you're not mentioning. I don't think there's anything wrong with folding river
Not believable. Why would JT be flatting otf/ott. you have no sdv. Of course you likely have no fold equity either. This is just a bad board to bluff all around.
