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Old 08-25-2018, 04:55 PM   #1
BreakEvenAt1-3
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5/10 Overpair facing flop XR and turn barrel

5/10, $2600 eff

Villain is young Asian guy, has a loose open and limp/calling range pre and chases everything postflop. Been on a heater and sitting on $5600, covers Hero and rest of table.

Villain UTG1 open to 45
Hero with QQ in MP1 raise to 145
Only UTG1 calls

Flop (305): J87
V checks, I bet 165
V raises to 350, I call

Turn (1005): 2h
V bets 450, Hero?

Is this a fold here given V can have straights, 2p and all sets OTF, as well as having the Q spade blocker?
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Old 08-26-2018, 01:34 AM   #2
apricotjello
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Re: 5/10 Overpair facing flop XR and turn barrel

call turn, call a lot of rivers vs <pot bet.

“young asian lag” does not inspire much that would make me fold
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Old 08-26-2018, 01:19 PM   #3
poloplaya1414
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Re: 5/10 Overpair facing flop XR and turn barrel

I think we might want to check back flop here. Doubt we're getting 3 streets of value, and we block a lot of the draws we would otherwise want to deny equity from. On the other hand, having the Qs makes it easier for us to call a x/raise since there are few turns we son't be able to continue on. I'm honestly not sure what's better, just throwing it out there.

As played, definitely not folding turn. Even if we give him all sets, 2 pair, and straights, there are enough draws he can have where we should call:
ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
1,056 trials (Exhaustive)
board: J872
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
QhQs27.94% 2950
7x8x, As2s-AsTs, 77, 88, JJ, 6s5s, Tx9x72.06% 7610
You'd have to take out about half of those FDs to get below the 23.6% we need to call. And it's also certainly possible that he's overplaying a hand like AJ or JT.
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Old 08-28-2018, 06:56 AM   #4
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Re: 5/10 Overpair facing flop XR and turn barrel

I agree with poloplaya1414 on checking the flop. This is a yucky situation, but I think I'm calling the turn. If the river bricks and he jams you are going to be in a tough spot.
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Old 08-28-2018, 11:45 AM   #5
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Re: 5/10 Overpair facing flop XR and turn barrel

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Originally Posted by TheGodson View Post
I agree with poloplaya1414 on checking the flop. This is a yucky situation, but I think I'm calling the turn. If the river bricks and he jams you are going to be in a tough spot.
Will probably want to fold overpairs with a spade and call overpairs without.

Vice versa when the flush does come in.
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Old 09-04-2018, 05:31 PM   #6
Living Abortion
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Re: 5/10 Overpair facing flop XR and turn barrel

Villain opens to $45. You 3-bet to $145 and villain flats… I would say the strongest parts of his flatting range here is PP ranging from 66-99. With players this lag they tend to level themselves into 4-betting stronger portions of their opening range and flatting 3-bets with the weaker portions.
Lets say he is opening loose from UTG+1 with a range of roughly 39%. This is a pretty wide opening range. But he’s lag on a heater…
You 3-bet to $145, which I dig. Let’s say villain would 4-bet with the top ~9% of his range. Well he calls. Which means he’s flatting with the remaining ~31% of his initial opening range. This is if he is balanced which he most likely isn’t so we can knock out some of the weaker unsuited and suited connectors (64o,65o,76s, 76s, 75s,65s,64s,54s) and replace them with weaker unsuited aces and kx, qx, combos.
This leaves 22-TT with TT being weighted slightly towards a 4-bet maybe 25% of the time. A8o-ATo,A2s-ATs, k9o-kjo,k7s-kts, q9o-qjo,q8s-qts, J9 and J10o, J8s-JTs, T8-T9o/s, 98s,97s,87s,86s… And the rest filled in with weak Axo combos…
The blessed flop comes out Jd, 8s, 7s. This flop SMACKS villains 3-bet flatting range. Your equity against his range is 70%. But Villain has many draws. 50% of his range has a gutshots to the nuts with any 10 or 9… Only 4% of his range holds flush draws, and this huge… This is key later. ~10% of his range consists of 2 pair or better.

A few things to ask yourself. What hands is villain check raising with here vs leading using his psychology? What value hands would lead with a FD on the flop?
Villain would certainly lead sets and two pair hands with a higher frequency on boards with present FD’s, and would check raise with Straits and semi-bluff with FD’s. He would have 4-bet pre with AA,KK, QQ (which you block), JJ, AK and a few other holdings.
The good news is that you block a lot of his Qx gutshot combos. So his range is now weighted towards straits and sets for value and semi bluffing FDs and semi bluffing Jx gutshots.
Regardless, folding QQ on the flop is way to exploitable. So calling his x-raise is solid.
The pot is $1005, and you have $2105 behind.
The turn is the 2h. 22 Gets there, but I wouldn’t be worried about if I were you. This card doesn’t change much.
Villain now elects to lead. Betting $450 into you. At this point villains value range is beating you. Sets, 2 pair and Straits. As far as FD’s go Villain only has 5% of the time, and you hold a Q spade blocker. This is important. Folding QQ here on the turn is again, too exploitable and you should be calling Villain’s lead of $450. Should villain lead river, and FD bricks, I am folding QQ with spades. If he checks, I would check back and take my show down equity.
If calling QQ on bricked FD rivers with a spade is not good, due to villain having more strait, set, and 2 pair combos for value, and folding QQ on the flop and turn is too exploitable… The best river card for you now is actually a spade… Remember FD’s only make up 5% of villains range. Your blocking spades but are likely behind, but folding QQ against Villain is not an option.
If river bricks FD’s, and villain leads, fold and consider calling with QQ w/o spades, unless board pairs 7’s or 8’s
If river bricks FD’s and villain checks, check behind and take your show down value.
If FD comes on river and villain leads, I would consider repopping if spades are not a J,9,10 not blocking gutshots and straits. If they are, fold.
If FD comes on river and villain checks, I would jam regardless of what spade it is…
If river is a queen, you now have a set, and are severely blocking Qx strait and gutshot combos and should be ready to stack off if he shoves, check raise jam, or value bet smaller if checked too.
Folding to villain is never an option on the turn... I understand this is a crappy spot, but you have many options going into the river.
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Old 09-05-2018, 06:44 PM   #7
ImAllInNow
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Re: 5/10 Overpair facing flop XR and turn barrel

Maybe not too relevant, but is this hand even necessarily a 3-bet pre vs UTG1 4.5x open?

What are we doing if he 4-bets, fold?

As played pre, I think flop check does make sense to balance out the times we give up with AK/AQ.

As played flop, probably call turn and fold river? Seems like we can call/call with AA and KK and maybe JJ if we ever 3-bet preflop with it and leave QQ to be folded on the river.
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Old 09-05-2018, 07:07 PM   #8
apricotjello
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Re: 5/10 Overpair facing flop XR and turn barrel

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Originally Posted by ImAllInNow View Post
Maybe not too relevant, but is this hand even necessarily a 3-bet pre vs UTG1 4.5x open?



What are we doing if he 4-bets, fold?



As played pre, I think flop check does make sense to balance out the times we give up with AK/AQ.



As played flop, probably call turn and fold river? Seems like we can call/call with AA and KK and maybe JJ if we ever 3-bet preflop with it and leave QQ to be folded on the river.

with this description of V we should be 3b super wide for value. flatting pre with QQ vs UTG open against some ppl is fine, here it would be a disaster
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Old 09-06-2018, 12:49 AM   #9
TheGodson
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Re: 5/10 Overpair facing flop XR and turn barrel

Versus a 4-bet, I think you can call given that the sizing isn't too big.
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Old 09-07-2018, 10:38 PM   #10
poloplaya1414
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Re: 5/10 Overpair facing flop XR and turn barrel

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Originally Posted by ImAllInNow View Post
Maybe not too relevant, but is this hand even necessarily a 3-bet pre vs UTG1 4.5x open?

What are we doing if he 4-bets, fold?

As played pre, I think flop check does make sense to balance out the times we give up with AK/AQ.

As played flop, probably call turn and fold river? Seems like we can call/call with AA and KK and maybe JJ if we ever 3-bet preflop with it and leave QQ to be folded on the river.
I think this is almost always a 3bet. Maybe a flat against certain types of players if we don't think there's a high risk of getting squeezed behind.

But against someone described as opening loose, I think it's easily a 3bet. Almost certainly calling a 4bet.

On the river. I think it doesn't really matter much whether we have AA vs. KK vs. QQ. I think it's more relevant to call based on whether we block spades or not.
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Old 09-09-2018, 06:14 PM   #11
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Re: 5/10 Overpair facing flop XR and turn barrel

I don’t agree with not being able to get 3 streets (player dependent).

I do agree with the logic of mixing checking ranges on this flop and using pot control with Jx spades. Combo draws are ahead of an overpaid here.

You mentioned he calls wide and chases. Any jx spades hands is gonna look like the nuts to him.

That said, you gotta take into account his entire range. Sure there are 2 pairs but there are so many draws or combo draws to consider as well.

What has his raising ranges been? I don’t see a reason to fold yet given the descriptions.


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Old 09-10-2018, 05:42 PM   #12
poloplaya1414
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Re: 5/10 Overpair facing flop XR and turn barrel

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Originally Posted by SamuraiJon View Post
I don’t agree with not being able to get 3 streets (player dependent).

I do agree with the logic of mixing checking ranges on this flop and using pot control with Jx spades. Combo draws are ahead of an overpaid here.

You mentioned he calls wide and chases. Any jx spades hands is gonna look like the nuts to him.

That said, you gotta take into account his entire range. Sure there are 2 pairs but there are so many draws or combo draws to consider as well.

What has his raising ranges been? I don’t see a reason to fold yet given the descriptions.


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There will be some runouts where we can comfortably bet-bet-bet and get paid by Jx, but most runouts will be too scary for us to do that.
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Old 09-11-2018, 02:31 AM   #13
monikrazy
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Re: 5/10 Overpair facing flop XR and turn barrel

Given villain description turn seems like an easy call. Let's see another card.

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Old 09-18-2018, 10:20 PM   #14
doUgolf
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Re: 5/10 Overpair facing flop XR and turn barrel

Turn is def a call vs this sizing. Unless you know hes underbluffing it should always be a call.
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Old 09-24-2018, 03:17 PM   #15
KT_Purple
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Re: 5/10 Overpair facing flop XR and turn barrel

this isn't a very good flop for us, every hand he has in his calling range can raise and blow us off our equity and we can't really have an efficient sizing and our hand may look completely face up to begin with

strongly like checking back this flop, in fact i think betting is a clear mistake unless your play is to re-raise flop, so as played, re-raise the flop to charge the hands you are ahead of, which there should be enough imo

check>bet/reraise>bet/call

as played this is not a board changing card, it's a total blank and we beat semibluffs

call

Last edited by KT_Purple; 09-24-2018 at 03:24 PM.
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