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Medium-High Stakes PL/NL Discussions about medium-high stakes pot-limit and no-limit hold'em (2-4 and up)

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Old 07-30-2018, 09:44 AM   #26
Sirrybob
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Re: 5/10 NL - Interesting Spot - Thoughts?

I'm not taking it far... it's about ranges and equity.

Take 2 playertypes, the nit-cold4bettor and the reg-cold4bettor
Nit cold4bets AKs,KK+. When you hold KK, 66% of his range is AA due to removal effects, so you have a snapfold and stacking
off loses you a decent amount of money.
Reg cold4bettor cold4bets QQ+ AK+ (and maybe AQs? That's probably loose at fullring). Vs him you can stackoff KK,
folding would be a mistake but not a huge one.

At this point my approach would be to calculate the equity of stacking off vs each player, and then see how frequent a player-type
needs to be in order to make us indifferent between stacking off and folding.

I'm not going to do that right now since it's a bit tedious, but in my experience, given it's only 5/10, you are going to see
the nit cold4bettor player type more often than not, especially when it's an unknown player.
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Old 07-30-2018, 10:42 AM   #27
poloplaya1414
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Re: 5/10 NL - Interesting Spot - Thoughts?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sirrybob View Post
I'm not taking it far... it's about ranges and equity.

Take 2 playertypes, the nit-cold4bettor and the reg-cold4bettor
Nit cold4bets AKs,KK+. When you hold KK, 66% of his range is AA due to removal effects, so you have a snapfold and stacking
off loses you a decent amount of money.
Reg cold4bettor cold4bets QQ+ AK+ (and maybe AQs? That's probably loose at fullring). Vs him you can stackoff KK,
folding would be a mistake but not a huge one.

At this point my approach would be to calculate the equity of stacking off vs each player, and then see how frequent a player-type
needs to be in order to make us indifferent between stacking off and folding.

I'm not going to do that right now since it's a bit tedious, but in my experience, given it's only 5/10, you are going to see
the nit cold4bettor player type more often than not, especially when it's an unknown player.
Folding KK against a 4bettor with a range of QQ+/AK+ is definitely a huge mistake. If we assume that villain folds his QQ/AK and calls the jam with KK+, then villian folds 2/3 of the time and calls 1/3 of the time (8 combos AK, 6 combos QQ, 1 combo KK and 6 combos AA).

The 2/3 of the time he folds, we win $455 in dead money. The 1/3 of the time he calls, we lose about $780 (22% equity against KK+, we have to put in 1465 and on average take 22% of a 3120 pot). Net that all out, and we're losing out on about $43 by folding.

Winning 4 BBs in a hand is a huge edge. If we're passing up on edges like that, I'm skeptical that we're going to make money unless this is an uber-soft 5-10 game.

Yes, villain could be a nit and have an even tighter range, but he could also be a fish or a lagtard with an even looser range. I've seen guys cold 4bet bluff with junk before, and I'll see it again.
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Old 07-30-2018, 01:30 PM   #28
socentralrain
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Re: 5/10 NL - Interesting Spot - Thoughts?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sirrybob View Post
I'm not taking it far... it's about ranges and equity.

Take 2 playertypes, the nit-cold4bettor and the reg-cold4bettor
Nit cold4bets AKs,KK+. When you hold KK, 66% of his range is AA due to removal effects, so you have a snapfold and stacking
off loses you a decent amount of money.
Reg cold4bettor cold4bets QQ+ AK+ (and maybe AQs? That's probably loose at fullring). Vs him you can stackoff KK,
folding would be a mistake but not a huge one.

At this point my approach would be to calculate the equity of stacking off vs each player, and then see how frequent a player-type
needs to be in order to make us indifferent between stacking off and folding.

I'm not going to do that right now since it's a bit tedious, but in my experience, given it's only 5/10, you are going to see
the nit cold4bettor player type more often than not, especially when it's an unknown player.
A live nit is cold 4betting AK? The live nits I know would consider flatting KK since they're so damn weak/tight
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Old 07-30-2018, 03:09 PM   #29
Sirrybob
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Re: 5/10 NL - Interesting Spot - Thoughts?

I think the things at hand are clear.
You need to estimate what villains' range is to make a decision. I'm sure we all have different experience in this spot, and certainly any physical tells would help a lot.
Online at most midstakes lineups I would actually just fold KK here.
The issue with poloplaya's analysis is this:
If 75% of the time villain has QQ+ AK and you win 4bb by shoving, and 25% of the time he has KK+ and you lose 78bb, that is a terrible terrible result for you. The amount of bigblinds you win vs the looser players doesn't make up for the amount you lose to the tighter ones. Nobody is going to know you folded KK here, it's not about balance in live games. It's about player types and frequencies.

All of this is ignoring the in between player who also wakes up with KK+ a non-neglibile amount of the time.

You could counter-argue that some people will cold4bet-call 99+ AQ and then you're printing lots vs them, and if you truly believe that then definitely stack off with KK. Personally I've folded these spots in stars midstakes fullring lineups and been quite confident about it, esp at this stack depth it doesn't even feel close to me considering how many nits there are.
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Old 07-30-2018, 03:36 PM   #30
poloplaya1414
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Re: 5/10 NL - Interesting Spot - Thoughts?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sirrybob View Post
The issue with poloplaya's analysis is this:
If 75% of the time villain has QQ+ AK and you win 4bb by shoving, and 25% of the time he has KK+ and you lose 78bb, that is a terrible terrible result for you.

You did not follow my math correctly. When we shove, we should win 4 BBs on average, including the times villain has KK+ and we lose 78 BBs.

When we shove and villain folds, we win 45.5 BBs. When we shove and villain calls KK+, we lose 78 BBs.

The weighted average of those results is 4 BBs.

And that's assuming the cold 4bettor never calls off with AK/QQ, which is usually true, but not always true.

And yeah, every once in a while the in-between player wakes up with AA, but if the cold 4bettor's range is as tight as QQ+/AK, the in-between player should very rarely have AA due to removal effects.
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Old 07-31-2018, 03:08 AM   #31
apricotjello
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Re: 5/10 NL - Interesting Spot - Thoughts?

Quote:
Originally Posted by poloplaya1414 View Post

Yes, villain could be a nit and have an even tighter range, but he could also be a fish or a lagtard with an even looser range. I've seen guys cold 4bet bluff with junk before, and I'll see it again.
all of the analysis you just posted was solid but especially this, and i think as we think about the hand in question. a little more: the reason we don’t want to fold KK here pre is the same reason I think AKs is a jam: we print vs ppl who fold too much, we are in good shape against people who call too much, and there’s really only one hand that has us dead, which we block half the combos of.
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Old 07-31-2018, 12:49 PM   #32
zippyroo
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Re: 5/10 NL - Interesting Spot - Thoughts?

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Originally Posted by russianbear13 View Post
I would’ve folded as well. Villains are showing too much strength against AK.
I miss this poster. So full of both love and rage.
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