Quote:
Originally Posted by Sirrybob
I'm not taking it far... it's about ranges and equity.
Take 2 playertypes, the nit-cold4bettor and the reg-cold4bettor
Nit cold4bets AKs,KK+. When you hold KK, 66% of his range is AA due to removal effects, so you have a snapfold and stacking
off loses you a decent amount of money.
Reg cold4bettor cold4bets QQ+ AK+ (and maybe AQs? That's probably loose at fullring). Vs him you can stackoff KK,
folding would be a mistake but not a huge one.
At this point my approach would be to calculate the equity of stacking off vs each player, and then see how frequent a player-type
needs to be in order to make us indifferent between stacking off and folding.
I'm not going to do that right now since it's a bit tedious, but in my experience, given it's only 5/10, you are going to see
the nit cold4bettor player type more often than not, especially when it's an unknown player.
Folding KK against a 4bettor with a range of QQ+/AK+ is definitely a huge mistake. If we assume that villain folds his QQ/AK and calls the jam with KK+, then villian folds 2/3 of the time and calls 1/3 of the time (8 combos AK, 6 combos QQ, 1 combo KK and 6 combos AA).
The 2/3 of the time he folds, we win $455 in dead money. The 1/3 of the time he calls, we lose about $780 (22% equity against KK+, we have to put in 1465 and on average take 22% of a 3120 pot). Net that all out, and we're losing out on about $43 by folding.
Winning 4 BBs in a hand is a huge edge. If we're passing up on edges like that, I'm skeptical that we're going to make money unless this is an uber-soft 5-10 game.
Yes, villain could be a nit and have an even tighter range, but he could also be a fish or a lagtard with an even looser range. I've seen guys cold 4bet bluff with junk before, and I'll see it again.