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Old 08-11-2018, 11:04 PM   #1
BreakEvenAt1-3
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5/10 Do I bluff the river here w/ nut blocker?

5/10, $1600 eff

Villain is MAAG, very loose rec player, VPIP ~60%, PFR ~30%. Shown to call down light - called with bottom 2p on a 3-flush, 4-straight runout against an over pot-sized river jam and won. Called down 3 large bets with KK on A-high board.

Hero with AK in UTG
Open to 35
4 callers, including villain in SB

Flop (185): 953
SB checks
Hero bets 130
BTN and SB call

Turn (575): 2
SB checks
Hero bets 345
BTN folds, SB calls

River (1265): J
SB checks
Hero? Have just under a pot-sized bet behind

Reasons for jamming:
- Bottom of my range, little showdown value
- Have nut flush blocker
- Nitty image due to being card dead for past 2 hours
- Haven't shown down any bluffs in the time I've played with villain
- Villain can have 9x w/ a club, KJx, QJx, hands I can fold out with a jam

Reasons for not jamming:
- My range is rather skewed towards bare A vs suited club combos here. A good thinking player would likely call me down here with any pair.
- Villain has shown a tendency to call down rather light
- I may still be good a portion of V's range: AxQ, KQx, KxQ, KTx, QTx.

Thoughts?
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Old 08-12-2018, 12:19 AM   #2
poloplaya1414
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Re: 5/10 Do I bluff the river here w/ nut blocker?

You're bluffing a calling station. I don't know if I would bet the flop 5 ways with a player like this in the mix, and I think the turn bet is also iffy. And no I wouldn't jam river against a player who pretty clearly isn't folding a pair.
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Old 08-15-2018, 07:20 PM   #3
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Re: 5/10 Do I bluff the river here w/ nut blocker?

I wouldn't mind a jam once we decide to bet turn and get to the river ap vs a normal v. You make this v sound like he's not the one though. Too hard to ignore your reads on v for a jam to make sense here.
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Old 08-15-2018, 08:01 PM   #4
Ultrium
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Re: 5/10 Do I bluff the river here w/ nut blocker?

Having the Ac does block his nut flushes, but it also blocks many combos of missed draws that would fold to a river bet. You need your bluff to succeed 45-50% to breakeven. How sure are you that he folds 9x on the river? Based on your player description, it doesn't sound like a sure thing. Unless you really love math, I'd recommend modeling the river spot in CREV.
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Old 08-18-2018, 06:28 AM   #5
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Re: 5/10 Do I bluff the river here w/ nut blocker?

Don't bluff a calling station. This is actually not a bad bluff vs. a lot of decent opponents. Your opponent is a calling station though, so no.

Actually, believe it or not, your hand actually has some show down value. I mean, what is he doing with K Q. He certainly could play that hand to this river. When you bet the turn, you are actually mix bluffing/value betting.
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Old 08-18-2018, 07:33 PM   #6
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Re: 5/10 Do I bluff the river here w/ nut blocker?

I would bet the flop small multiway. You want to get called by weak pairs and weak draws, the more callers the better.


You can also bet large and say flush/Ac type range, sure, but I don't like it.


River is fine to jam through, but not too often. Never ever vs a cally guy, as even good regs call down here too light.
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Old 08-18-2018, 07:41 PM   #7
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Re: 5/10 Do I bluff the river here w/ nut blocker?

Quote:
Originally Posted by lnternet View Post
I would bet the flop small multiway. You want to get called by weak pairs and weak draws, the more callers the better.


You can also bet large and say flush/Ac type range, sure, but I don't like it.


River is fine to jam through, but not too often. Never ever vs a cally guy, as even good regs call down here too light.
What would you consider too light? I think trippling here mw ( into a known station) is a spot where good regs will fold the large majority of their range often when they have no history or knowledge of OPs barreling freqs. I think if station folds and the other v calls I would think that barrelling off here would be pretty a good spot.

Last edited by 7weeks2days; 08-18-2018 at 07:48 PM.
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Old 08-18-2018, 07:58 PM   #8
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Re: 5/10 Do I bluff the river here w/ nut blocker?

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What would you consider too light? I think trippling here mw ( into a known station) is a spot where good regs will fold the large majority of their range often when they have no history or knowledge of OPs barreling freqs. I think if station folds and the other v calls I would think that barrelling off here would be pretty a good spot.

I think he's supposed to fold weak flushes on the river cause 953 is a flush heavy texture and flop was 4way. And regs hardly fold flushes. A fishy guy would never.
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Old 08-18-2018, 08:10 PM   #9
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Re: 5/10 Do I bluff the river here w/ nut blocker?

Lets do a simple MDF calldown, roughly

Flop 130/185 around 70% size, 60% MDF, 20% each split into 4 defenders
Turn 345/575 around 60% size, 63% MDF, 39% each split into 2 defenders
River ~pot size, 100% size, 50% MDF of 1 defender

20%*39%*50% = 4%

A tight active play range (like open raise from hero; active=includes KK+) flops a flush about 7% flushes on this flop.
A loose defense play range (like BB overcall here; defense=no top hands) flops a flush about 5.5% flushes on this flop.


So if out opponent calls down here roughtly 4% of his range, but has a flush between 5 and 8% of the time, he should be folding some flushes on the river.

Complications:
- Might be better for him to calls AcX like Ac4h than a low flush.
- All bluffs block calldown more than folding ranges, leading to looser calldown. [Small factor here I'd say]
- MDF is too simple for calldown, actual calldown is tighter. [Small factor here I'd say]
- Raising might be played, making calldown looser. [Not a big factor here I believe]


Anyway, my estimate seems about right. With a low flush he is supposed to have a tough spot on the river. If he always folds low flushes there, bluff is good. If he always calls flushes there, bluff is bad. If he calls a worse hand than a flush there, bluff is horrendous.
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Old 08-18-2018, 09:32 PM   #10
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Re: 5/10 Do I bluff the river here w/ nut blocker?

Quote:
Originally Posted by lnternet View Post
Lets do a simple MDF calldown, roughly

Flop 130/185 around 70% size, 60% MDF, 20% each split into 4 defenders
Turn 345/575 around 60% size, 63% MDF, 39% each split into 2 defenders
River ~pot size, 100% size, 50% MDF of 1 defender

20%*39%*50% = 4%

A tight active play range (like open raise from hero; active=includes KK+) flops a flush about 7% flushes on this flop.
A loose defense play range (like BB overcall here; defense=no top hands) flops a flush about 5.5% flushes on this flop.


So if out opponent calls down here roughtly 4% of his range, but has a flush between 5 and 8% of the time, he should be folding some flushes on the river.

Complications:
- Might be better for him to calls AcX like Ac4h than a low flush.
- All bluffs block calldown more than folding ranges, leading to looser calldown. [Small factor here I'd say]
- MDF is too simple for calldown, actual calldown is tighter. [Small factor here I'd say]
- Raising might be played, making calldown looser. [Not a big factor here I believe]


Anyway, my estimate seems about right. With a low flush he is supposed to have a tough spot on the river. If he always folds low flushes there, bluff is good. If he always calls flushes there, bluff is bad. If he calls a worse hand than a flush there, bluff is horrendous.
Im not sure if I was being clear but I did am not advocating a river jam vs the specific v ap. I was referring to the sb(station) folding and the bu(if he is a avg rec) calling. I would not expect the bu calling range to be as wide to include hands such as A4. Even if they did, at this depth, w/o knowing v's ability to barrel off here I believe that the majority of regs will be folding everything they get to the river with ap - Q/K flushes that they may or may not even have in their range when they get to the river.

Your analysis is much better than mine though. I just think this is a spot that if you have a clean image at this stack size you can overbluff Ac/x vs regular villains because they will be folding often. I can think of several regs in my room who would fold everything except KcXc in this spot. I don't even think its bad to fold because so few people go for it here. Barring some read I think my call off range here vs most would be tight as well.

I just think most regs will be much more straight forward and weak tight in a srp mw deep getting to the river ap like this. When I think reg I generally think rec = unbalanced/straightforward/weaktight.

Last edited by 7weeks2days; 08-18-2018 at 09:40 PM.
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Old 08-18-2018, 10:12 PM   #11
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Re: 5/10 Do I bluff the river here w/ nut blocker?

To add above I think even pro's would be folding a pretty wide range w/o history here
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Old 08-19-2018, 12:48 AM   #12
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Re: 5/10 Do I bluff the river here w/ nut blocker?

Quote:
Originally Posted by lnternet View Post
I think he's supposed to fold weak flushes on the river cause 953 is a flush heavy texture and flop was 4way. And regs hardly fold flushes. A fishy guy would never.
I’d be shocked if most weak flushes (and also sets) didn’t raise flop for value a significant portion of the time.

This throws off your analysis by quite a bit I believe. If villains are raising flushes and sets a lot, their flatting range on flop will be strongly weighted towards one-pair hands and nut flushes which we block, which will make it a lot harder for them to defend wide enough against a triple barrel.
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Old 08-19-2018, 01:42 AM   #13
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Re: 5/10 Do I bluff the river here w/ nut blocker?

Quote:
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Iíd be shocked if most weak flushes (and also sets) didnít raise flop for value a significant portion of the time.

This throws off your analysis by quite a bit I believe. If villains are raising flushes and sets a lot, their flatting range on flop will be strongly weighted towards one-pair hands and nut flushes which we block, which will make it a lot harder for them to defend wide enough against a triple barrel.
I think the opposite. I think most v's will be calling with sets and flushes at this stack depth on these types of boards. On this board raising more often could be good if the stationing villain will be calling with worse. Without the station or some other special read/dynamic I think it would be a mistake to raise otf w/ flushes and sets vs hero.
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Old 08-19-2018, 04:07 AM   #14
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Re: 5/10 Do I bluff the river here w/ nut blocker?

I think you can raise the nut flush and nut flush draw on this board some of the time, but I think there are too many people seeing a flop for raising a weak flush in opponent's spot.

At the river Villain should only be calling with the K high flush or better I think. There are so many more Axs flushes than all the other flushes. Hero is UTG raiser as well, so a hand like 85s or K7s is less likely. Also, some flushes could slow down on turn.

Calling down with A4 seems like a blunder to me. Hero should primarily be betting 3 streets with flushes or bluffing with the nut flush card. If you hold that card you are blocking a lot of bluffs.

You actually really don't want to face 3 barrels with the king high flush, but you have to call it down sometimes, because otherwise your opponent will be able to barrel the lone A too much. If we give Hero a loose range of Axs, KTs+, Q9s+, J8s+, T7s+, 96s+, 85s+, 75s+, 64s+, and 54s. With holding the King high flush we beat 20 and lose to 12. The weakest flushes are checking back on the river probably and most of those hands aren't always being played from an UTG player.

If UTG player plays something like A9s+, A5s-A2s, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, we are in even more trouble with a king high flush.
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Old 08-20-2018, 03:11 AM   #15
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Re: 5/10 Do I bluff the river here w/ nut blocker?

Quote:
Originally Posted by lnternet View Post
I would bet the flop small multiway. You want to get called by weak pairs and weak draws, the more callers the better.


You can also bet large and say flush/Ac type range, sure, but I don't like it.


River is fine to jam through, but not too often. Never ever vs a cally guy, as even good regs call down here too light.
This
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Old 08-20-2018, 06:49 AM   #16
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Re: 5/10 Do I bluff the river here w/ nut blocker?

Quote:
Originally Posted by lnternet View Post
I would bet the flop small multiway. You want to get called by weak pairs and weak draws, the more callers the better.


You can also bet large and say flush/Ac type range, sure, but I don't like it.


River is fine to jam through, but not too often. Never ever vs a cally guy, as even good regs call down here too light.

I agree with this.

I canít believe you wasted two minutes of my life claiming if river jam they should fold small flush on river to less than pot sized bet. Thatís never happening, ever.

Based on everything OPís information...as played I just give up. 9x Kc based on the opponent I think will be calling.
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Old 08-20-2018, 11:12 AM   #17
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Re: 5/10 Do I bluff the river here w/ nut blocker?

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I think the opposite. I think most v's will be calling with sets and flushes at this stack depth on these types of boards. On this board raising more often could be good if the stationing villain will be calling with worse. Without the station or some other special read/dynamic I think it would be a mistake to raise otf w/ flushes and sets vs hero.
I meant more if a reasonable player was in the hand instead of calling station.

I think raising a weak flush on this flop is still totally fine to get value from sets/overpairs, nut flush draws and to deny equity from people with a naked Qc/Kc.

Sure sometimes we get owned by the nut flush, but I don't think that's often enough to not raise.

If we had 7c6c and Villains only continued with overpairs, higher flushes and the AJ+ with the nut blocker, we would have 72% equity:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
48,510 trials (Exhaustive)
board: 953
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
7c6c71.86% 34,8580
AcJy+, TT+, 99,55, 33, 9c8c+, Ac2c+, KcTc+28.14% 13,6520

Even if we took out AJ and overpairs without a club, we still have 61%:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
33,660 trials (Exhaustive)
board: 953
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
7c6c60.69% 20,4280
AcQy+, TcTx+, 99,55, 33, 9c8c+, Ac2c+, KcTc+39.31% 13,2320

It feels like it'd be pretty hard to justify not raising a flop with a weak flush. A set would be a little bit more ambitious but not crazy either IMO.
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Old 08-20-2018, 08:50 PM   #18
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Re: 5/10 Do I bluff the river here w/ nut blocker?

I'm checking the flop...

It's 4 way and you have guys in there who you already said won't fold anything.

The region of their range that you are actually getting value from is very small on the flop compared to how many hands they can have that are doing decent equity wise against us or just ahead of us.

Betting the flop puts us in a situation where we are always betting the turn, and if we don't improve by the river, we now have to ask this question... "should I try to bluff this guy who never folds?"

If we just check and let the flop check through, we can now bluff the turn with a better idea that everybody else's hands are much weaker given none of them bet the flop. If a club falls at this point we are very likely getting 2 streets of value versus the Kc, and we could even overbet versus the station.

I assume many are going to disagree, but this style works pretty well for me and I tend to avoid these sticky situations that you guys get yourselves in on the river when you miss.
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Old 08-22-2018, 06:17 PM   #19
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Re: 5/10 Do I bluff the river here w/ nut blocker?

I'd generally ck this flop spot myself, but not gonna obsess about that.

Turn bet is way overdoing it. With what hands is super station SB calling flop and folding this utter brick turn?

River is time to wave the white flag. If we shove, he needs to fold 46.3% of the hands that are beating us for it to be a profitable bluff. Until this guy proves he's paying attention to your image/history with him, it's best to assume he's not.
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Old 08-23-2018, 01:49 PM   #20
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Re: 5/10 Do I bluff the river here w/ nut blocker?

Flop and turn bets were probably way too ambitious. Bluffing a calling station on the river here can actually be better than trying to bluff a tight player because the station gets there with so many more weak hands that have to fold. We're not trying to get him to fold a flush but you'd be surprised how many times I've seen these 60/40 type players call/call/fold in massive pots.

Last edited by Loading....; 08-23-2018 at 02:00 PM.
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Old 08-24-2018, 07:26 AM   #21
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Re: 5/10 Do I bluff the river here w/ nut blocker?

Quote:
Originally Posted by poloplaya1414 View Post
You're bluffing a calling station. I don't know if I would bet the flop 5 ways with a player like this in the mix, and I think the turn bet is also iffy. And no I wouldn't jam river against a player who pretty clearly isn't folding a pair.
I mean, yeah. The first reply nailed it, though I don't mind the flop bet. Checking turn all day.

Blows my mind that you're even contemplating jamming the river vs the villain you describe. Pure spew.
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Old 09-02-2018, 12:50 PM   #22
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Re: 5/10 Do I bluff the river here w/ nut blocker?

I would check flop. As played, sounds like he's the wrong player to bluff.
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Old 09-18-2018, 10:30 PM   #23
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Re: 5/10 Do I bluff the river here w/ nut blocker?

Like the flop bet to balance when you do have strong flushes. Dont like the turn bet. From what you said, villain is overcalling, not overbluffing. If you check, he will check a high amount and you will see a free rivercard.

As played, check. Youre wanting to bluff a calling station.
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