6 handed, new table. Two BBs this hand so pot starts at $20. No reads on villain, new table, never seen him before (I'm at Commerce 2x a week) but not a recreational player.

JT on CO with $1500

Folds to me
Hero (CO) raise $35
BTN folds
BB 1 folds
BB 2 call $35

Flop 8 9 J ($75)

BB check
Hero (CO) check

Turn 8 9 J 5 ($75)

BB bet $110
Hero (CO) call $110

River 8 9 J 5 2 ($295)

BB bet $350
Hero (CO)?

This is a really cool hand imo. BB should have overbet turn/river range, and I think in theory and almost certainly in practice your capped af. I think depending on who you ask you could get solid analysis that leads you to either call or fold.

My personal answer is that you have a pure bluffcatcher and live reg populations notoriously underbluff in overbet lines across multiple streets. Also, BB has all the value in the world here, like its pretty sick how many value combos BB can have here. However, the kind of moving threshold for whether or not you call here is how much you think he's capable of running it w/ his AT/KT/KQ combos. If you have a strong read, which obviously you don't, that he doesn't 3bet these combos pre, but is very aggro post, you could def justify calling.

The GTO answer is flip a coin, your hand is almost certainly indifferent at equilibrium.

Call

Weird hand. Vs. an unknown, I let it go, but I totally understand the urge to call.

How does V present himself? Competent, wild, noob, businessman? Is he old, young, etc.?

I agree with most of this, EXCEPT you don't need a solver for the river. What you need to decide, since you have zero info on this specific player, how players in your 5/10 game will play this. How often will players in your average game overbet turn and river as a bluff? Then you decide what portion of your range is bluff catchers. Then you use that and the bet size to determine how often you must bluff catch. Is JTo in that group of hands? I'm guessing not....

I mean I agree you don't need a solver. I'm not that good at articulating, but imo avg 5/T reg populations are super underbluffing OB - OB lines, JTo clearly has no domination on any of his value range, thus your hand has entered bluffcatching territory. Given he's likely underbluffing, I feel no reason to call this hand without any additional reads. I was just pointing out that this hand is probably indifferent in theory, which to be fair isn't really that important.

you are probably near top of your range for checking that flop. Not to mention all the draws villain can have. Manatory call on river.

Mandatory*

Tough spot, As others have said you are super capped and Villian knows it.

I would Hero river. But it's really close. I think when it's this close maybe the information you gain makes it a call.

Why do we check flop here? (Honest question from 2/5 grinder).

Here are my reasons:

1) This is a mixed frequency bet for me but I recently learned that my ranges when taking a passive action are a little too weak so I'm trying to add hands to check with that make sense. I will say that its not a huge concern to protect checking ranges at Commerce 5/10 (kindergarten 5/10), or any non-high level game, but I want to work on it. Usually it makes more sense to just bet value due to the rarity of check raises and the fact that most in this game call far too much.
2) I want to have some straights in my range on the turn after a 7 or Q peels off, to protect my flop checking range.
3) I also want to have a few (not a lot) of Jx in my range on the turn after checking flop. I would rather bet AJ and KJ here, maybe also QJ, because theyre stronger. They also dont block the Tx straight draws so they'll get called a little more often and have a little more incentive to bet due to unblocking draws.

On the other hand, this is a hand that can stand a check raise, is still vulnerable to letting an A or K peel off, can get value from some weaker Jxs, Tx, or 9x, so its a mixed frequency bet for me. If you can find reasons for betting and for checking, that probably means either is OK. If I bet flop here it would be 1/3 - 1/2 pot.

Since this is an unknown player at a brand new table, is this the hand to be thinking about checking to balance your range?

Results oriented, but: if you bet that flop you could probably end up at the same river (or get check-raised off) for a few bucks less.

BB defend range so assuming offsuit big cards.

Bluffs:
76,JT,KT,AT, 20~ FD combos
Roughly 85ish draws u beat/chop

Value:
QT,88,99,JJ,
89,
J9,
J8s,
roughly 60 hands that beat u

Polarized so I am excluding top pair hands like KJo and over-pairs that also beat you.

I think you are ahead of 58% of his range. Based on that you could turn raise him for $275 and shut out his equity on all his draws.
As played, draws bricked and you only need 35% to call.

well if we check the flop (and i like checking the flop some) its because we want to have some nice top pairs in our checking range, so that when v bets strong at turn and river we arent just folding 100%.
This plan seems like what u were going for, and i think its a perfectly good plan. So just call.

I agree (but I only agree 74% just to be GTO optimal...).

I definitely agree with this. If this player is a complete unknown to me, I will call this bet if I am unsure, just to get the information. The money lost now can be a money-saver later.

Thanks all, appreciate the input.

Results, with board:

He should be 3betting 88+ & binning 89 pre if he is half decent


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I agree with StraightFlooosh. Great breakdown.

I absolutely loathe villain's bet sizings and it would tilt me so bad. 3/2 bet on the turn to 7/6 bet on the river. It's like someone who thought about these spots but came up with the completely wrong conclusions.

You are upset (and would be tilted) he's making a mistake but thinks he is right? Might need to work on this. This is where we get our money from in this game.

More importantly, please elaborate and justify. It's ok if you think villain was completely wrong here, but it's only constructive if you explain.

i had a very similar hand recently with JT where I raised pf in late position and the board ran out similar and it went check check on the flop, big bet on the turn big bet on the river. my solution was to give a lot of table talk, flick my cards angrily and make it clear i was agonizing over a hero call, cut out chips to call and then put them back in my stack twice, and then flick a single chip in once i got a read on villain that he seemed uncomfortable with me leaning towards a call and i was right he'd picked up a draw on the turn and then bluffed the river when he missed.

so my suggestion would be try to pick up a read and if you can't then flip a coin.

I flip a coin for every binary decision.

I’m dead even after playing poker for 3000 years.

3/2 pot on the turn is very polar and on a brick river we should be even more polar which leads to mostly bigger overbets, not 7/6 pot overbets.

At least that's what I assume he meant, which is correct.

Yeah, I mean I get it, but if someone else doesn't, they won't learn much unless its explained. I get that this isn't a training site but still.