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Old 08-05-2018, 07:45 PM   #26
poloplaya1414
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Re: 5/10 at Bellagio AA on ugly runout

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Originally Posted by 7weeks2days View Post
Hard to say for sure but if I had to guess I would go with no, not with a WIDE range here.
So why are we so nervous about flatting and letting other players come in behind? Pretty confident that if they do flat, they will be doing so unprofitably.
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Old 08-05-2018, 07:50 PM   #27
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Re: 5/10 at Bellagio AA on ugly runout

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Originally Posted by apricotjello View Post
i think LP flats could be marginally losing plays at worst with hands like mid PPs
I'm pretty confident that flatting a 20 BB 3bet over an UTG open with a mid PP in LP with ~150 BBs effec is a losing play when we have AA.


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scs but you noted in beginning of HH that “table was action-heavy...people had been going to flops with all sorts of garbage.”

we have to view LP calls and SB iso from this perspective. i actually would think our 150bb+ deep UTG range at such a table has lots of suited AXs and way fewer hands like 65s as a result. This means we can profitably create a pretty strong 4b range where even our Ax bluffs will realize a lot of their equity, especially with over-flush potential, post. and since we put AXs in our four betting range, i’m also going to have QQ+ AK here at almost 100%.

I actually like how most of the HHs you post and this one is no exception but I really think the decision not to 4b aces here is what makes post so complicated.
Yes, it was an action-heavy table, but I still don't think SB 3bet range would be THAT wide. Maybe I should've been more explicit, but while plenty of players were calling raises and seeing flops, there hadn't been too much 3betting.

Although, hey maybe I'm wrong seeing as the SB did end up having a fairly marginal holding.
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Old 08-06-2018, 12:56 AM   #28
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Re: 5/10 at Bellagio AA on ugly runout

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So why are we so nervous about flatting and letting other players come in behind? Pretty confident that if they do flat, they will be doing so unprofitably.
Hard to say/quantify, but you let people realize free equity in WA/WB spots where you will either lose the max or win the min. In your defense though, one of the V's did get it in lighter post so I am wrong in this case.

If it goes 6ish ways, one could argue set mining seems like it may be profitable for 100-200bb stacks like mentioned before.

If the 3! was a smaller size, say 150-180 would you still call or would you 4!? At what point do you feel like V's would be doing so profitably? For me, the sizing for me to consider a flat here is higher than 210.

Last edited by 7weeks2days; 08-06-2018 at 01:17 AM.
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Old 08-09-2018, 02:23 AM   #29
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Re: 5/10 at Bellagio AA on ugly runout

Didn't realize I left this out of my last post but just because I wouldnt defend a large portion of hands in this spot does not mean that these v's wouldnt. Depends much more on specific stack sizes, and how good players think they are. I feel like more often than not people tend to defend more often than they should or at least wider than I would. Whether some should or shouldn't is hard to say.
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Old 08-09-2018, 02:57 PM   #30
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Re: 5/10 at Bellagio AA on ugly runout

I think that when we flat and people come in behind with weaker hands, it's a very good thing for us.
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Old 08-09-2018, 09:05 PM   #31
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Re: 5/10 at Bellagio AA on ugly runout

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I think that when we flat and people come in behind with weaker hands, it's a very good thing for us.
that may be true. My question is, under what circumstances would this become a 4! pre for you in this spot? Deeper stacks? Smaller 3! size pre by sb? Some reasonable different dynamic? I know you mentioned someone could argue that flatting your entire range here is reasonable so maybe there isnt one. But if there is , under what circumstances would this become a 4! for you w/o getting too far from the original dynamic of the hh?
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Old 08-09-2018, 11:32 PM   #32
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Re: 5/10 at Bellagio AA on ugly runout

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that may be true. My question is, under what circumstances would this become a 4! pre for you in this spot? Deeper stacks? Smaller 3! size pre by sb? Some reasonable different dynamic? I know you mentioned someone could argue that flatting your entire range here is reasonable so maybe there isnt one. But if there is , under what circumstances would this become a 4! for you w/o getting too far from the original dynamic of the hh?
Deeper SPR is the more I think a 4bet makes sense. So yeah a smaller 3bet size or deeper stacks and we 4bet.

Also if we're in LP and my range could look bluffier, I would be more inclined to 4bet.
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Old 08-10-2018, 02:48 AM   #33
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Re: 5/10 at Bellagio AA on ugly runout

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Originally Posted by poloplaya1414 View Post
Deeper SPR is the more I think a 4bet makes sense. So yeah a smaller 3bet size or deeper stacks and we 4bet.

Also if we're in LP and my range could look bluffier, I would be more inclined to 4bet.
How much deeper / At what 3! size does this become a snap 4! for you?
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Old 08-10-2018, 06:06 AM   #34
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Re: 5/10 at Bellagio AA on ugly runout

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I think that when we flat and people come in behind with weaker hands, it's a very good thing for us.
This is not necessarily true.....
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Old 08-10-2018, 10:26 AM   #35
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Re: 5/10 at Bellagio AA on ugly runout

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This is not necessarily true.....
Very few things in poker are necessarily true.

I'm pretty convinced what I said is true. When we flat AA and someone in LP calls with KQo and the SPR going to the flop is something like 2.5:1, who do you think is gaining EV and who do you think is losing EV?
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Old 08-10-2018, 10:32 AM   #36
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Re: 5/10 at Bellagio AA on ugly runout

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How much deeper / At what 3! size does this become a snap 4! for you?
I'm spitballing here, but I think for somebody to come in behind us and see a flop with a hand like 98s and for that to be a profitable play, you'd need to have a SPR of something like 5:1 after calling the 3bet. That would allow you to flop a draw and justifiably call both a flop and a turn bet or jam all-in on the turn.

So for that to be true here given the 3bet size, we'd need to have 350 BB effec stacks.
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Old 08-11-2018, 02:22 AM   #37
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Re: 5/10 at Bellagio AA on ugly runout

I think 4-betting would be the better option as well. Flatting seems a bit dangerous, especially with two nits yet to act. Having nits calling preflop is going to suck. If they play back at you post flop it will be difficult to deal with.

Another thing that might suck with flatting to the 3-bet is that it may get difficult to 4-bet bluff later on.


If the table is crazy enough to repop it yet again, wouldn't they be crazy enough to shove all-in or even call the 4-bet?
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Old 08-11-2018, 01:34 PM   #38
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Re: 5/10 at Bellagio AA on ugly runout

Why is it bad if nits call preflop? What do you think is their 3bet flatting range preflop? And what do you think the EV of that range against AA is?

And I don’t know that we need to have a 4bet bluff range when we’re in EP facing a 3bet from the SB. If we were opening from LP I would absolutely want to have 4bet bluffs and would 4bet AA to make sure we’re balanced.
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Old 08-11-2018, 01:56 PM   #39
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Re: 5/10 at Bellagio AA on ugly runout

Also if villain 3bets smaller to say 120 or so, I think it becomes a clearer 4bet for the SPR reasons I mentioned. The massive 210 3bet makes it so a flat is better.

For those advocating for a 4bet, what do we do here with QQ or AK? I think 4bet/folding is out of the question giving the sizing. I think a 4bet jam is ambitious against what should be a tight 3bettimg range. I think a flat makes a lot of sense with those hands, and if that’s the case, having AA in our flatting range as well helps us a lot.
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Old 08-13-2018, 04:07 AM   #40
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Re: 5/10 at Bellagio AA on ugly runout

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Originally Posted by poloplaya1414 View Post
Also if villain 3bets smaller to say 120 or so, I think it becomes a clearer 4bet for the SPR reasons I mentioned. The massive 210 3bet makes it so a flat is better.

For those advocating for a 4bet, what do we do here with QQ or AK? I think 4bet/folding is out of the question giving the sizing. I think a 4bet jam is ambitious against what should be a tight 3bettimg range. I think a flat makes a lot of sense with those hands, and if thatís the case, having AA in our flatting range as well helps us a lot.
I donít think we need to worry about balance. We can 4! with AA/KK and just call with QQ/AK. I donít think we need the help in our flatting range. We have a recent 3! Dynamic deep vs someone who does not seem like a winning reg pro. Itís hard to fold the top of your range vs someone who just may have 3! your previous utg open <100bb stack light.

When you 3! Folded to his utg open + 4! For 80bbs what did you 3! Fold out of curiosity?
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Old 08-13-2018, 06:09 AM   #41
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Re: 5/10 at Bellagio AA on ugly runout

The nits won't necessarily be getting a bad price. I think the nits calling range would be something like QQ-77 with the intention of set mining. I'm not sure what the EV against AA would be, but I don't think it would be all that bad. Assuming you never fold post flop the nits would hit their set 1/8 of the time and winning 170BBs. 1700 * (1/8) = 212.5. They need to only call 180. That is only taking your stack into consideration and not the 3-bettor so they wouldn't be making a mistake to call.

I don't know if the nits are as deep as you are though. If they are only 100 BBs then they would be making a mistake to call.

You mentioned that you thought there was a decent chance a player would repop it. I think this is the strongest argument for flatting the 3-bet in your spot.
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Old 08-13-2018, 11:19 AM   #42
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Re: 5/10 at Bellagio AA on ugly runout

I think we need to be deeper to make set mining profitable. Villain doesn't automatically double up as soon as he hits a set.

When Villain flops a set, I will also either flop a set or make one by the river 16.5% of the time. Add on a few pps for being able to make a flush or a straight, and AA still has 21% equity even when we know villain flops a set:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
12,569,040 trials (Exhaustive)
board: Jxx
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
JJ78.89% 9,858,456114,120
AA21.11% 2,596,464114,120

When you factor in the third player also possibly having a big pair, you're going to lose by the river about 25-30% of the time even when you flop a set. If when you flop a set, you get stacked 25% of the time, and stack someone else 75% of the time, you're netting out half a stack on average, which means you really need about 1:15 implied odds to make set mining profitable here.

And realistically, they're not going to be able to fold flop every time they don't hit a set because there will be several flops where a middle pair needs to peel at least one street.
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Old 08-13-2018, 05:14 PM   #43
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Re: 5/10 at Bellagio AA on ugly runout

K
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Old 08-13-2018, 06:22 PM   #44
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Re: 5/10 at Bellagio AA on ugly runout

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I donít think we need to worry about balance. We can 4! with AA/KK and just call with QQ/AK. I donít think we need the help in our flatting range. We have a recent 3! Dynamic deep vs someone who does not seem like a winning reg pro. Itís hard to fold the top of your range vs someone who just may have 3! your previous utg open <100bb stack light.

When you 3! Folded to his utg open + 4! For 80bbs what did you 3! Fold out of curiosity?
I honestly don't remember. I wanna say something like AJ.
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Old 08-20-2018, 07:13 AM   #45
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Re: 5/10 at Bellagio AA on ugly runout

4bet preflop. In a reckless game or even a game that’s not at the top level. Players will never give you credit nor analyze that you could of slow played Aces. If you get my vibe. For example you smooth call preflop rather 4bet and it comes 3-7-10, SB leads and you pop it now. When he has QQ he is very scared of a flop set. He is clearly aware you have something. Just build the pot up more, get heads up with Aces to where you’re a slam dunk to win
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Old 08-21-2018, 03:01 AM   #46
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Re: 5/10 at Bellagio AA on ugly runout

Villain played his hand perfectly.
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Old 08-21-2018, 01:57 PM   #47
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Re: 5/10 at Bellagio AA on ugly runout

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Old 08-21-2018, 02:01 PM   #48
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Re: 5/10 at Bellagio AA on ugly runout

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4bet preflop. In a reckless game or even a game thatís not at the top level. Players will never give you credit nor analyze that you could of slow played Aces. If you get my vibe. For example you smooth call preflop rather 4bet and it comes 3-7-10, SB leads and you pop it now. When he has QQ he is very scared of a flop set. He is clearly aware you have something. Just build the pot up more, get heads up with Aces to where youíre a slam dunk to win
Why would we ever raise on a T73 board? If villain is nitty and gets nervous about made sets when he has an overpair on a dry board, he's probably also the type to get nervous about a 4bet pre.
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