3500 effective

TAG pro opens Hj to 60. I defend bb with A6ss.

Flop: KJ5sss

Check. He bets 70. I make it 210. He calls.

Turn (pot: 560): Jc

I bet 400. He calls.

River (pot: 1360): 5c

Do we bet/fold here to get value from a K or QQ, with a spade? Check/fold? Check/call?

I'd probably check-call. Your hand is quite strong vs his range and getting raised would be a disaster. It also gives him an opportunity to bluff a hand that missed like QsT or AQs.

Reads, no reads it’s hard to tell n it’s player dependent so no clue. Tag pro isn’t a good description, have u seen him bluff?

I hadn't seen him bluff. He'd been pretty snug thus far. I did have a pretty LAG image at that point, which inclined me to bet, targeting value from a king...

For Wynn regs, he's a young guy w/ long hair. Sort of looks like Jesus. Lol. I visit Vegas a few times/year, and he's always there, so regs probably know him.

I like betting

probably bet 1/4-1/3 then

Without any read, pretty easy ch/call. If he's good, I doubt he pays off anything decent with ak.

So villains range is
A flush
B boat
C pair+missed FD
D KX

If u check he’s gonna check back A and C and D and bet B so u can’t really XC (even if he doesn’t then some SDV into a bluff it’s probably not enough to justify a call)

If u bet big then he just folds out worse (maybe he hero calls u if he’s that type of guy)

If u bet small maybe u can get a call from A C D and he will raise B so bet/fold

But how small?

I think 1/4 pot could be good but I honestly might even go 15% here I’ve seen it reflected in some sims and this might be a good spot.

Interesting. Thats not a river sizing I’d ever consider. Does the sim use that sizing with a boat, too? (Assuming it check-raises AsJx, etc on the flop).

As played, I bet $650, so 40%ish. Villain tanked and jammed and I puke-folded. The real problem with my river bet, in hindsight, is that it’s so hard for me to have a Jack that he could profitably turn Kx into a bluff. I hesitate to give people credit for the capacity to bluff-raise thousands until I’ve seen actual evidence of it, but I think that’s a good spot for him to bluff. I did seem spewy to the table, which made me think he was even less likely to be bluffing there.

Its a clear bet big/decide, assuming you arent a nit.

Can you elaborate on why it’s a clear big bet? You see that the board double-paired, right?

C/R on the flop is a mistake. You don't have the nut or range advantage, and your hand doesn't need protection. You don't have as many suited aces in your range after flatting the HJ open, and the HJ has a clear advantage in sets since you shouldn't have KK or JJ. On this runout, the HJ has a massive advantage in boats, so the river should be a check. Kx isn't calling all three streets unless HJ is a huge station and thinks you're just blasting off with too many naked As bluffs. Only two worse flushes in HJ's range really have to defend (QTs and Q9s). T9s and worse aren't likely calling a check raise and all three streets on a double paired board. HJ has at least 10 combos of boats/quads that you don't-plus any stubborn Jx with a spade that called your c/r.

TL;DR--Your range is capped; river should be xC but even then it's close if HJ is too nitty. Pray that HJ thinks you get to the river with too many bluffs and tries to run you over.

+1 to above poster, you check/call range on this flop to avoid awkward situations like this OTR. Do you checkraise sets +2p here as well in this situation, or 5x? Villain’s range has a ton of 2p and sets while yours is mainly flushes. Hell, you even block his nut flush draws. He gets the nut turn and river for his range and can just jam here a ton. When the bottom two flop cards pairs, it’s just so hard for you to have any sets or two pairs (assuming you’d even raise them on this flop at high frequency).

As played it’s a clear check and decide, and prob cry call/fold depending on read


Edit: I can see him hero calling here with Kx if you jam thinking he blocks boats, but it may not be worth the times you get snap called by a boat.

first of all, i dont like ur xr on the flop, you hands so strong and block v's call range.
secondly, j on the turn is a very bad card for u, cuz it make v get more nuts advantage, he can had kk or jj kj, u just may have kj. as a pro, he wonnt call 400 on the turn with Qs or other draw combos.
so on the river, if u decide to xc whatever v's bet size, u should bet first, maybe 1500 is good.
but u should xf.

lol at people saying raising the nuts on the flop is bad... At worst it would be a 0ev mixing mistake and I don't think playing 0 xr is a thing here although I have essentially no experience in bb call, str fold v HJ srp in a str game and a 1/2 bet otf (usually people bet smaller on mono ime)

I doubt he has many single Jx or 5x in this line so his boat combos are really reduced. Seems like our range on the river wants to bet big or check and our hand is definitely strong enough to bet big. Fold vs a jam I'd say.

Lol there’s so much bad advice itt. Except for jarret and like one other poster

Man havent visited 2+2 in years or checked this branch, what happened to all the threads? Almost no content left lol.

And yes judging by the posts, live poker still profitable in 2021... whatever that's left of it lol.

Stopped responding bc of the poor quality of the thread. Anyways, I bet 1/2 pot, he jammed, and I folded.

Have never seen someone bluff in this sort of spot at these stakes so wouldn't worry about being bluffed here, just interesting because he only really reps KK/quads, pretty hard for him to have Jx here

What are you doing on turn in villain’s shoes with QJcc, AcJd, etc.?

wondering why I half potted the flop