Live $5/10NL with $20 kill from UTG, 9-handed. I have $1800, Villain covers.

Preflop: Tight and straightforward opponent limps in LJ. SB (Villain) completes, I complete, UTG checks his kill.

Villain plays a lot of hands and plays them aggressively preflop (e.g. will open as weak as 73s from HJ). He will also bet-call hands as weak as naked gutshots on flop but tends to play smarter/trickier on turn/river. I've been involved with several small-to-medium pots with villain, generally letting him bet into me and mostly winning with strong hands and staying out of way with speculative holdings.

Flop: Ac4d5d
Villain leads for $70, I make it $230, UTG and LJ fold, Villain calls.

Turn: 8s
Villain shoves. I have $1550 behind and pot is $540.

I've played with villain several times and have never seen him make this play. I left my hand blank on purposes but from Villain's perspective my range is strong flush draws, straight draws, maybe A2/A3, and 2pair+

What range would you expect here? What hands are you calling with?

what’s your range limping from BB into straddle?

then, what portion of that range are you raising OTF?

From optimal standpoint we can work out MDF and pot odds first, then think about adjustments to defend vs. this maniac. You have to defend roughly the top 1/4 of that range to prevent V from showing immediate profit by ripping 3x pot here.
minimum defense frequency = [pot / (pot + bet)] = [540 / 540 + 1550] = 25.8%

You want to pick those hands that give you 43% to make a call against whatever range you assign to V.

Without knowing about what your ranges are and V’s game, I think we obviously defend all sets and straights. Then we probably want to also call with all 2p with an ace in them and pair + A-high flush draws.

The likelihood of a raise from UTG (Kill) in this post was small, so my range is something like: all pairs, all AXs, 0 or 1 gap suited connectors, all 0 gap connectors, all suited and offsuit broadway, any ace (given action it's likely I have the only A).

Given his open bet into 3 players my read is that my flop fold equity is close to zero for a 3-4x raise. I'm raising 44, 55, A4, A5, and 23 for value nearly 100% of the time. I'm usually raising 45. I'm sometimes raising 6d7d, 7d8d, broadway flush draws, A2, and A3 but occasionally just calling those. I'm likely just calling AdXd, and maybe calling 67o since a raise behind me seems unlikely given the board (and if it is raised, it's almost certainly a hand that I can bust if I hit my draw).

His flop range is likely gutshots, OESDs, flush draws, 2pair+, and any ace. My gut said that the 8 improved his hand and he bet big to deny me a chance to hit a strong draw or make me pay off heavily if I had a strong hand that he was likely ahead of. The turn overbet really threw me since I've played 12-14 hours with him and have never seen him make that play, even when he hit (depending on action he'd usually lead for a smaller amount or C/R).

Feel free to comment on any aspect of my thinking above.

Your ranges seem a bit off preflop. You also probably shouldn't be raising all your two pairs, but whatever. I'm probably not hero folding very much here, because I expect villain to expect us to bet turn a lot with the majority of our range. Still, it's hard to think of what draws or bluffs he can have that wants to play this way; it makes me feel like he's trying to fold off your draws with either a draw that can't fold anyway and prefer to just jam, maybe he has 8x fd.

He could just have the nuts, of course, and think you're going to check back two pairs. I think that's the keypoint here, because if you're betting most of your Ax two pairs then he's losing himself money by donk jamming here. Unless we have reason to think that's the case I'd probably just commit similar range that I was going to bet/call off. I probably don't fold NFD either, but I don't think we have too many here that limp pre and raise flop, anyway.

I remember a poker saying from somewhere which is never go broke in a limped pot...don't ask me to quote where from

On the turn looks like 76o or 76s, no FD. His rectum will be filling with doo doo at this point with the possibility of a FD on the river. This could also just be a naked FD on the turn, I'd really need to know he shoves his flush draws on the turn in particular to say this.

You didn't specify the price to call....it's a limped pot. His range is 52 cards. I'm presuming this is a turn over-bet shove. I'd also like to know if V is competent, competent fish or fish. In a general sense I fold fds, 2pairs here (assuming it's an overbet shove) - call sets and straights obv. (disclaimer, I'm a bit nitty).

your flop raising range is pretty strong (sets 2p combo draws) and if I were villain I would think you’re barreling this turn very often, so I’d opt for a check/raise rather than leading huge.

Otoh if he thinks you’re defending with your entire range here then maybe he shoves to get the money in before an action killer comes on river. Also gets the benefit of seeming “crazy “

I prob call with my straights and sets and fold the rest. If I call with 2p Id prob do so without the ace so as not to block his Ax fd combos. Dunno if math requires it tho.

i think calling with Ax two pairs is better because you don’t risk getting owned by V when he has 2p (which seems like a lot of the value in his unorthodox open ship range here)

Thx for the analysis. I had 2s3s in this hand and flopped the wheel.

The opponent is probably a winner in this game, with the majority of his profits coming from attacking the nits at the table by taking down hands on the turn and river (which he does frequently). I read my own raise on the flop as pretty strong so I put his range at 8d7d, 8d6d, 67s, 67o, Ad8d, Ad6d, Ad7d, and maybe 88 if he put me squarely on a draw. If he has a flopped set or 23 I think he re-raises the flop most of the time. What threw me on this hand was the lack of precedent for an open over-shove, especially since he has a high bluffing % that's always played differently so it felt skewed towards value.

I called and V had 67o. It's a small sample but given that I had been beating up on him by calling down a lot with marginal holdings I'm guessing my raise signaled more strength than I suspected and so it was easy for him to play once he hit his straight.

This is the problem with limped pots, ranges are so wide that any cooler is possible.