Had about 50 hands history with BB. He seemed a bit on the splashy side, and I'd been quite active leading up to this hand.

Not sure about the turn call, but felt like I was getting a good price to call hoping there would be enough bluffs, weaker 2 pair, Jx in his range.

On river, I don't think we're ahead of villain's value range after we get counterfeited, but knowing that we block 77 and 88, thought this was a great spot to turn our hand into a bluff and try to rep a boat.

Thoughts?

Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - $4 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 104.86 BB (VPIP: 25.26, PFR: 12.63, 3Bet Preflop: 8.57, Hands: 99)
MP: 101.5 BB (VPIP: 22.67, PFR: 15.56, 3Bet Preflop: 9.17, Hands: 229)
CO: 30.64 BB (VPIP: 27.78, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 19)
Hero (BTN): 139.02 BB
SB: 175.42 BB (VPIP: 43.08, PFR: 30.38, 3Bet Preflop: 12.28, Hands: 275)
BB: 121.75 BB (VPIP: 31.58, PFR: 15.79, 3Bet Preflop: 18.75, Hands: 40)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 8 7

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, BB calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (5.5 BB, 2 players) J 8 7
BB checks, Hero bets 3.25 BB, BB calls 3.25 BB

Turn: (12 BB, 2 players) 6
BB checks, Hero bets 8 BB, BB raises to 25 BB, Hero calls 17 BB

River: (62 BB, 2 players) 6
BB bets 30.63 BB, Hero raises to 108.27 BB and is all-in

honestly i like the line, after 6 hits OTR you don’t really too many worse hands that peel turn and you obv. block all the boats that don’t contain a 6 as JJ three bets pre.

seems fine

To me his turn raise says he's not folding. Is he a reg or fish?

Really like this line. His river bet feels weak. Like he wants to be able get away from 9sTs if he gets raised after the worst possible card for his handruns out.

He needs to be capable of folding 9sTs after raising the turn and leading the river. I'd have to know this before pulling any river bluffs.

Fine in theory, but it's player-dependent in practice with 16 straight combos. Probably a little bad against a splashy potential fish.

Flop is a check back. You aren't getting 3 streets of value from a worse hand and if you do get raised on flop or turn after betting flop, I guess you are putting him on QT or Q9 specifically and just calling down? You're gonna end up getting shown a straight a ton tho.

As played, without more information on villain, I'm giving up river. I've jammed too many times in this kind of spot as a standard thinking I block all the relevant boats only for them to call w/ whatever, or to just have it anyways. I'd do it 100% against specific opponents and 0% against others.

Worst idea ever. You aver a vulnerable hand worth 3 streets on some runouts.

Think betting the flop is fine for value vs tp and draws. And putting emphasis on blockers might work to a degree, but I don't think with the online poker RNGs it matters a crap.

The crappy board that counterfeits our 2pair is probably saving us money here and he has fish stats....I'd like to see the WTSD state...if it's low turning your hand into a bluff is a MAYBE but let's face it he's got 10x9x or a boat here and being a fish he's never folding.

Wouldn't it only be 12 combos? 9T, 95, 54? Am I doing this right? @TenHighCallDown

no

If you never get caught bluffing you're doing it wrong.... yeah, this prob won't get a fold and might lose money there and then, but it means that anyone that sees this bluff is going to be more likely to pay you off in future when you do have it.

If you already have an image where you are capable of bluffing rivers like this, then sure - you can probably just let this spot go and never bluff it against someone you are certain is going to snap you off.

I like your line, not much else to say.

I don't think T9 is likely since that raises flop. 95s and 54s are possibilities though. Opponent can also have a fullhouse which includes 76s, 86s, and J6s, as well as sets. We fold out his missed draws and two pair, but not all of those are leading the river and he may not fold two pair.

This is the perfect bluff hand on the river, but I just don't think he is folding enough. It has to get folds over 50%, but I'm thinking it works about 40%ish. So it is a fold in my book. Creative plays are cool and all, but at the end of the day it is all about making money.

I think 87 without a spade is the perfect bluff here.
Line looks good.

This is fine vs the player that folds to aggression and is a thinking player. But vs aggrofish, this line becomes less attractive. The guys stats are looking like coin flip between the two at 32/16.

Not many hands in but there are so many combos that didn’t get there like 89, JT, BD spades, and the fact that this guy could be a payoff wizard, I would lean towards giving it up.

It is an interesting spot though and I like the thought process

I have to agree with Marshall28.
A lot of players will just call because they have an absolute-strong-valuehand. In big pots the brain doesn't always think logically, there is a lot of emotional attachment and cloudy judgement. You really shouldn't try to make people hero-fold in the name of balance.

In addition, from a balance perspective - this is a really easy spot for you to be overdoing this. If you shove JJ 88 77 J6 that's 11 combos. Just your 78 combos is 9 which is already significantly overbluffing.

I would think a much more efficient hand-choice to bluff would be T9. Villain is unlikely to have boats both because 77-88 should 3bet preflop often, and because of his river sizing. Why not shove 11 boat combos and 16 straight combos to bluff villain off the chop, where you lose nothing if he calls, and just play call/fold with your 78?

^^^T9 is a pretty trivial call here IMO. We should be good often enough to just call and not turn our hand into a bluff.

Edit: Actually I take it back, no way we don't 3bet T9 on the turn.

1. Flop is not a check back contrary to what a few said- no way
2. Is villain going to fold a straight no matter what you are repping?
3. Line looks good to me
4. I just dont know if I choose this as my time to put em all in the middle

Definitely like the line.

Fantastic use of blockers.