WAs curious on this spot on the turn. This guy is very nitty post flop. His turn raise is only 5. When he raises he will do it with the nuts. He also plays the nuts fast. I rarely seen him ever bluff in spots like this. ANd QQ, JJ, 99 and 66 are all in my range. He never has 66 here he would definitely raise the flop. I think QJ is possible, but I see KTss a lot and if he is bluffing be like 78ss or ATss type hand. But it doesn't make sense cause not a gambling kind of player post flop with draws.

So since I think he more value oriented in this particular situation he has QJ, Q9, KTss, T8. I know the board looks wet and in general u want to get in but hes more on the nitty side like a old man at the casino style. Should we just call with that read and reevaluate the river?

villains stats
28/16/ 3b 6% flop raise of 6% turn raise of 5% 3.3k hands

[converted_hand][hand_history]WPN, $2/$4 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $441.34 (110.3 bb)
BB: $620.24 (155.1 bb)
Hero (UTG): $445.43 (111.4 bb)
MP: $744.35 (186.1 bb)
CO: $459.05 (114.8 bb)
BTN: $747.73 (186.9 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 9 9
Hero raises to $16, 4 folds, BB calls $12

Flop: ($34) 9 6 J (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $22.09, BB calls $22.09

Turn: ($78.18) Q (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $50.81, BB raises to $133,

Conservative range estimate:

QQ - 3 combos
KTSS - 1 combo
QJS - 2 combos

Equity vs conservative range:

3/6*(1/44)+1/6*(10/44)+2/6*(40/44) = .352 * 100 = 35.2%

Equity needed based on betting:

82.19/344.18 = .24 * 100 = 24%.

So you have a clear call against that really tight range. Also river should be easy to play vs opponent since you claim his range is so well defined.

Considering this player is pretty tight I would break his range down as such

I find it really unlikely this player is bluffing after check calling flop and then check raising turn with this sizing. The only bluffs he could probably have here would be 10s7s or 10s8s. Both of these hands are more likely to check raise the flop as a bluff though which leaves one other bluff he is most likely to have if he is bluffing which is As10s.

His value range consists of:

In order from most to least likely: Ks10s or non spades, JJ, QQ, QJ, 66
Given how tight this player I think he would just check call with QJ on turn and would probably expect him to raise 66 on the flop so his most likely value holdings actually have you in pretty bad shape. Considering you're getting around 4 to 1 on a call and have position calling is for sure the best play. You also still have plenty of fold equity on the river after calling turn.

If we boat up on the river I think going with the hand is completely fine. We know we will be coolered here sometimes. If the river bricks and he shoves I think its an easy fold, if the river is like a K, 10 or spade and he checks you could consider turning your hand into a bluff. Theres a few factors to examine on river but calling turn is the move. Cheers and GL - Will

$83 to call into a pot of 260. Call and fold river bricks against this guy.

Shove if you hit boat on river.

@Wapengel
This is not the kind of hand/texture/player I's I'd turn my set into a bluff. What better hands fold river?

Edit: bet turn slightly bigger imo

Even against a really tight range I don't know how you lay that turn down as is and really think given villain's post flop tendencies you cannot shove leaving just call. 3b range of 6% pre implies he is well wide enough to be 3b QQ & JJ combos. I think you can discount top set some with that 3b range and open up his calling range more with that 28/16. Put some JTss/o, AQss, QTss, QJ and some combos of J9.

I agree he does not seem to be bluffing. From his perspective as it gets very wet his QJ, AQss, J9 start to get harder and harder to play oop. All seems well within his line.

I call with the plan to call any rivers that boat up. If the board gets more wet evaluate bet sizing as any river bet will help polarize the range further. Some of the stuff you are ahead of probably check back a ton of rivers, especially any that make the board more wet, i.e. 66, QJ, AQ, etc.