Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - $4 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 3 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 204.37 BB (VPIP: 22.22, PFR: 18.52, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 27)
Hero (BTN): 100 BB
SB: 159.7 BB (VPIP: 41.67, PFR: 36.11, 3Bet Preflop: 31.25, Hands: 38)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T 7

Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, BB calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (5.5 BB, 2 players) 7 2 6
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: (5.5 BB, 2 players) T
BB bets 6 BB, Hero raises to 18.92 BB, BB raises to 44 BB, Hero calls 25.08 BB

River: (93.5 BB, 2 players) J
BB bets 54 BB, Hero ?


Is the turn raise too ambitious? As played, call or fold on river?

Why are we checking flop? Seems like we would cbet a lot of our air here and we actually drilled this flop. There are a lot of bad turn cards, I would be betting there.

I think jamming turn is reasonable as played. You are getting 3bet by all kinds of worse 2pairs and draws. You have lots of outs if you are behind.

As played I am 4bet shipping the turn.

Oh I read the flop a 752. I was thinking that no straight was possible on the turn. Given that I guess it's not quite as clear of a spot.

Just cbet the flop.


I didn't do the math but turn raise is probably a call given drawing equity alone. River is population/villain dependent but likely a fold given how little I think people bluff 3 bet the turn and then follow through on the river.

This hand probably isn't even that good of a bluff catcher given it blocks some potential spade draws that missed as well as pair plus straight draw hands that might have bluffed so that's probabaly another reason to fold river.

I think betting flop is certainly defensible but I decided to check back because I'm betting most my flush draws here so having this in our check back range helps for balance. We can continue on literally any turn with a pair + FD at min, and we're not losing out on that much value by checking back. But maybe I'm overthinking it.

I think the turn is a clear call. I don't think he's 3betting worse for value. But we probably have 13 clean outs so direct odds are close to a call so with even a bit of positive implied odds, it's a clear call.

I think the river is probably a fold as well.


Most interested in hearing thoughts on my initial turn raise. Should I have just flatted?

I am sure you can mix with this hand for the reasons you gave but I am going to guess that the majority of the time it's a bet on the flop, specifically to fold out villain's equity more than anything else. So in that regard I feel like betting and checking definitely do not have the same EV.

Without reads I am not sure what the turn raise accomplishes. Maybe getting called by a worse 2 pair? The turn stab is likely either a complete airball because the flop checked through, a hand that missed a c/r otf or a hand that certainly improved ott.

It's hard to know if villain has enough tx, worse two pair, or pair plusdraw to make the raise better than call/call. That's something I am sure you can run the numbers on. Probably have to factor in some element of complete spazzing in heads up button vs bb play.

When people say "it's a bet" do they mean that would be the equilibrium solver output?

I don't know this population but I wouldn't need much convincing that the OOP response to a cbet on this exact flop is, due to training and intuition, closer to optimal than the response to a check behind by IP.

Basically what I'm saying is folk probe these turns with out-of-line goofball ranges expecting IP to overfold an unbalanced capped range and get lost in portions of the game tree they haven't studied holding highly exploitable ranges.

I think there is more opportunity against the non-GTO performer and I really like the check back.

Another good reason to bet the flop is to carry this hand forward as a bluff on bad runouts for your particular hand but are good for your range.

Might not be a great overall bluff candidate but it's hard to pick up 3 barrel bluff candidates and this seems pretty good. Only bad parts about it are the potential draw blocking.