Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - $4 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 100 BB (VPIP: 34.12, PFR: 25.82, 3Bet Preflop: 9.32, Hands: 352)
CO: 70.75 BB (VPIP: 36.36, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
BTN: 50 BB (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
SB: 123 BB (VPIP: 25.93, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 56)
BB: 107.8 BB (VPIP: 55.70, PFR: 40.27, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 158)
Hero (UTG): 120.1 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A A

Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, SB calls 2 BB, fold

Flop: (6 BB, 2 players) T 5 4
SB checks, Hero bets 2 BB, SB calls 2 BB

Turn: (10 BB, 2 players) 7
SB checks, Hero bets 6.5 BB, SB raises to 20 BB, Hero calls 13.5 BB

River: (50 BB, 2 players) 2
SB bets 48 BB, Hero ?

Limited reads on villain. Seems to play a pretty standard game preflop for the most part.

We're just bluff-catching on river, right? Is it nitty to fold on the turn?

If you know his turn raise range, we can make a clear decision. Or even the % he raises turns.

I'd say we're not in good shape here, most Tx hands are just going to call, JJ-KK is going to 3b pre, 86s just made a straight on the turn...I'd say a turn fold vs a player who hasn't shown any signs of bluffing is fine. I'd put him on 86s or a set...yes nitty but that's what it looks like with those 6max reg stats.

Since a sb flatting range will usually consist of mostly lower pockets and some broadways and he lacks more obvious bluffing hands like 65s, I'd expect a lot of 77 and a some frequenzy of other sets. Unless you know he's capable of turning sth like JT into a bluff I would probably fold. Maybe call some ATcc type hands.

He could have 66 or 88

Do we call turns to fold to the driest of rivers or call turn to hope he gives up on dry rivers? serious question, can we just fold the turn if we don't want to call off the river barrel? is it exploitable if he doesn't know we make a tight fold? I just feel like there are very very few spots where villain won't bomb the river, but we almost never want to call it.
What is hero's image by the way?

I hadn’t been playing at this table long, but was definitely playing aggressive pre.

Not folding ever. Villain can have lots of semi bluffs on the turn although us having a spade isn’t good

Out of curiosity, what hands do you think villain has that are semibluffs in his range given pre/flop play when we get to the turn and that would then choose to ch/r vs ch/c? What kind of frequency do you expect said hands to check raise? After which villain then fires away a psb when the river effectively blanks? It's not like hero was betting weakly, and when he calls turn it's less likely he's going to fold the river. Small sample, but villain doesn't look wildly out of line/aggressive and the river bet looks like value vs a perceived strong/showdownable hero hand.

Caveat: I lean towards nittishness and would fold turn more often than not unless I knew more about vililain tendencies. If I call turn, though, I'm calling blank rivers like this.

That doesn't mean he's aggro post flop. Or he may be aggro flop only. Or turn only.

Ask yourself what do you beat on the turn that he raises?

I was talking about my image.

And on turn, I obviously only beat bluffs. But villain can be bluffing here.

- we need to know he calls flops with intention of raising turns as a bluff or raising draws turn. Consequently if he is bluffing turns, we need to know that HE knows you fold to turn raises except with the nuts. As you've got 56 hands on him, there's not a lot of history between you I presume.

- he's polarized to sets, straights and air on the turn.

- he has reg stats not fish stats.

- we need to know his aggression stat and particularly his river aggression stat before calling this off as a bluff.

In lieu of other information, why should we assume villain is never bluffing? I get that in a perfect world we would know villain tendencies, but we have to make a decision here, and I don't know if we should just assume that villain has no bluffs here.

If we don't know he is bluffing or not on this occasion due to lack of historical data, such things are timing tells are all we have. He is a reg by the look of his stats and after 56 hands he's not out of line, we have to believe he has a better hand. Check raising is always strong and check raising the turn even stronger. He may well bluff % of the time but he's investing a lot of chips in his bluff, 68BB to be precise and bombing the river when the board isn't anything special. People don't bluff that much, and this big vs relatively unknown solid players.

He's called out of position, and let's assume he's a reg due to his stats...OOP range will always be small PPs and suited connectors or suited mis-connectors. This board hits that range quite hard 86s or 55, 44, float with 77 and even possibly TT. Is he stacking off here with K10 or A10? I doubt it. He'd probably 3bet both those hands anyway.

As a default I play ABC vs unknown until I learn tendencies or have stats.

My thoughts are always the same in this spot - if I call the turn check raise I am calling blank rivers. Actually most rivers. Folding decision I make on the turn. Personally I just fold the turn unless he does it again vs me or other opponents and gives up river/loses river. If I am sure I am ahead I just get it in on the turn so no river cards kill the action.

You shouldn't. Call. You are basically at the top of your range here unless you're doing this 1/3 pot cbet **** with your sets, and even then, I doubt he's value enough here for that to push AA into fold range.

Damn sounds like I’m in the minority here in that I’m almost never folding. Is there no chance that he’s pegged you for a LAG player and you could be doing this with something like 66, 88, 99? You said you were playing aggressive... also there’s no way he could have turned a flush draw? Or even turned some kind of combo draw to go with his flush draw? There are also plenty of hands where he could have turned a pair and a flush draw or a pair and s gutter. He doesn’t show aggression until the turn. Would a flopped set simply call the flop?

I’d be more inclined to believe he turned a high equity draw before I thought he flopped a set. However I could get behind a turned set of 7s... kind of a weird spot in that you don’t see this happen on such a dry board when holding AA or KK.

I don’t play online much but from what I understand this is a fairly low limit game right? If so you seldom see low level players pulling off bluffs like this so that’s the one thing in my mind working against you.

I hate going broke with one-paid hands even when it’s pocket AA but I think I’d have a hard time folding this hand.... even to a river jam. I think I could maaaaaaybe find a fold if I believe his story and the river is another spade or another card putting a one-liner to a Straight. That’s a big maybe and I might be going broke anyway depending on the player.

What did he have?

NL400 winning network, you don't get SB callers bluff raising turn enough here, making turn fold best I think. But somewhat close. He may have 88 and 66, although I think they just get called twice there.


River he gives you sizing tell though. He up-sizes significantly without jamming. To me this sizing tell fits very well with the SB cold call player type and tells you very clearly that he is not bluffing (enough).


Reads like this can be off, of course, but I feel quite strongly about this one.

I like this

Maybe he went nutso with 36 or 86, or has 77? I wish I knew his turn percentages. I think it's kind of nitty to fold the turn, but I think I sigh fold the river for sure -- not really sure what we're beating besides A10 and I don't think there's any way he takes that line with that.

I call turn but fold river. There is the chance that he has a spade draw, but after getting called on the turn I don't think players will continue on the river often enough. It actually is probably correct to fold the turn too, but I probably find myself calling anyway because it is so nitty to fold.

While I think the villain has very few bluff here that too OOP, I would still call turn and see a river if we improve.

BTW, does anyone have a problem with raise size Preflop and bet size on the flop, looks small to me. I would go 3-3.5BB pre and 60% on the flop.

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Preflop seems fine to me. On the flop, I agree with you.

Possible villain could have Js, Q, and K's no?

Unlikely that those wouldn't get 3bet.

I smooth big pairs a bit to mix my range/plays but I agree for most part. A concealed overpair can reap some nice rewards with the risk.

Combo draws with massive turn equity like 98ss anyone?