Quote:
Originally Posted by Wilson Cortez
What could he possibly be value raising that is worse? Am I reading this correctly? We have 3rd nut flush (behind straight flush though unlikely since he would just ship river) on a 4 liner.
It's the second nut flush. I agree though, villian value raising worse seems very unlikely because it would have to be either a 9 high flush (which isn't all that possible considering 98s is a straight flush and the J, 10, and 7 of spades are on the board) or a straight. I doubt he's raising a straight for value, although he could be raising with a straight blocker to get you off a chop (or a weak spade).
I don't think you ever show up otr with the A of spades with this line (or not often at all). If you had AsXs you would almost always bet flop for value, and if you had AsXx you would almost always fire a cbet bluff otf (or at least this is how villian will likely perceive your line). Your only reasonable AsXx hands that might check flop are AsAx, AsJx and As10x, but I doubt you're 3betting AJo/A10o out of the BB all that often (could be wrong though)
I think given all of this, you have to call the river. You're getting a great price, you're at the top of your range, and I don't buy everybody's bs "oh people underbluff even at HS". Villian is unknown, our line is extremely weak, range is capped, we have to call with the top of it. Qs is definitely the top.
I also think the river lead isn't great