$2/$5
$2,000 eff

V - consistent winner in the game, solid player can border on LAG but typically plays solid. ($2,000)

H - very minor history with V. i just got to the table about 2 orbits ago. ($3,000)

Hero raises to $20 UTG with 55. folds to V in the SB who raises to $90 hero calls.

Flop ($200ish): 567 rainbow. Hero checks and V checks behind.

Turn ($200ish): 567 A. Hero bets $140 and V calls.

River ($500ish): 567 A A. Hero bets $330 and V jams rather quickly for about $1800.

Hero?

Sick to fold boats but 100% of his value range is dominating you. He has all combos of Ax suited (A5s, A6s, A7s all reasonably take this line), he might have some % of AA that checks behind a connected rainbow flop. You said he was a consistent winner who plays solid; he's not going to be spewing hard here by "value-jamming" AQ or random trips.

That said, he can show up with bluffs here. It's way too sick to turn Ax into a bluff so I'm not counting hands like A8, A2, etc., but hands like 76 and 65 are natural bluffs when the river pairs the Ace because you get to block so many full houses.

Because you two have very little history, and your range is full of stuff like 98, strong trips, or a full house, I would discount a lot of V's bluffing range. You don't win consistently at $2/5 trying to get people off AQ or 55 here.

Fold river jam imo.

I'm also not sure UTG at every table with 55, although I trust you've got enough grasp on table dynamics to know when opening 55 UTG is okay. Once the lag 3! you, you're in position, and the raise is for such a small portion of eff. stacks, I'm fine with calling and set-mining.

Why are you raising so small when stacks are so deep?

Why are you calling a 3b with 55 against a consistent winner in the game?

Will V 3b you with A7, A6 or A5s?

As played the only hand you are losing to is AA that decided not to bet the flop. 77 and 66 are betting.

Don't see how you can fold here..

i agree SB doesn't have 66/77 here, but how are we discounting all of the suited aces? if hero is opening hands like 55, then V can easily 3bet Axs

What value range are you giving V? I simply don't see worse that we defeat - if we didn't know V was a winning reg, he might just be overplaying AK or smth here, but winners generally don't spaz 400bb on paired boards.

@OP do you think he's capable of going for real thin value with 98 and targeting AQ/AJ?

I'm confused on the action. If villain is SB you should have position on him post flop right?

i screwed up the original post. V is otb.

Shrug, call, quads nh, move on.

Super Sick....What does v think of you in general? That you play more weak on certain board textures , more of a station, (if he cbets) ? The flop check is whats most interesting to me. You say at times he goes borderline lag, but when he does does he like to then play tricky postflop or does he like to continue full steam ahead with a lot of aggression. I would think the former if hes only going "borderline lag" at times and may have hammered a flop like this. On the other end, what hands does v have that that checks back flop, calls turn, & then turns hand into a bluff? IS he really that sick to attempt with say 99. Otherwise, everything that checked flop looks like it completely missed & everything that calls turn apparently has a piece of it. Id love to read the results of this but it sure looks mostly like hes going for thin value (probably in your eyes more then his) with ace king. Would you expect him to check vs cbet this flop here with ace king?

I guess he could have decided to mix up this hand outa no where going "borderline lag" 3 betting with something that hit this flop hard (45s,89s,66,77,two pairs) but even then as discounted as that has to be it seems he still might bet that flop...again, unless he likes to get tricky.
P.S. What was your reasoning for not leading flop? ( not that there was anything wrong with that, just curious)

I call, you only have to be right about 36% of the time

SB prolly 3bet you with a hand like A5 A6 or A7 - I don't think I am calling - Need more info

Call for me. Unless H makes a lot of hero calls, or V never jams with anything less than the nuts.

Under normal play if V has quads or a Ax boat, a 2x pot jam doesn't get any value from anything that isn't a boat/straight. Which is unlikey for H to have. H has only been making 2/3rds pot bets so far, with a raise preflop.

For V's other hands that might do this like 99~KK, Ax (not a boat), straight, missed straight draw. There's more hands that H beats than hands that will lose, and some % that V is just bluffing.

I don't see how you can fold here. I think most solid players would bet with A7s, 99-AA here OTF for value, so we can probably take that out of his range. 567 isn't a great range to c-bet in a 3-bet pot, so he's probably checking back a lot here. A call on the turn makes sense for hands like A8-AQs, AK, etc. When the second A hits on the river, he could certainly be value raising a strong A for value on the river, losing only to 55-77, and A5s-A7s which he heavily blocks. A lot of live $2/$5 players aren't going to be thinking about what worse hands will call them in this spot, and will just jam with strong hands. Of course, he can have some bluffs here too. Maybe 87s that he turns into a bluff, KJ, KQ, hands like that. I think you definitely need to call here and if you get coolered you get coolered.

insta call... 66 77 rarely checks flop only Hand which makes sense is AA and you beat AK/AQ etc..

I am almost always folding here unless hes a bad reg. It looks like 3b you with AA or some suited Ax hand. Flopped a pair or had A high realizing the board hits you well and checks back then on the turn he still kind of nervous you could have a big hand and call with 2 pair or set and the river he either boats or has quads.

IF we look at what he thinks of us when we bet into him twice he knows we aren't messing around. I think he just calls river with 3 As. I don't blame a call here. CAsue it does look like AK too. But if hes good and tends to get his money in good I think I would fold here. He never bluffing and it doesn't really have low pocket pairs in his range and play worse set that way. And if hes a guy who will 3b suited As now he even have more combos of boats in his range that are beating us. Its almost like he has to have a boat here to shove or hes bad and has AK or AQ. I think a lot depends on the player if i call here or not. But probably looking more towards folding if hes good player.

How do you know he's a good player and consistent winner when you've only seen him play for 2 orbits and you've got no history with villain? Just curious because that didn't make sense to me.
Anyways, this is a call for me. Villain is definitely not holding AA here, who 3bets with AA then checks the flop? I think villain has 89 or AK. Both these hands make sense to me because if he flopped the nut straight and you've checked to him he thinks you're way behind and wants you to catch up. You're repping an Ax since you bet it on the turn and trip A's on the river and villain wants to maximize his value with either his straight or AK. He's not putting you on a flopped set and full house. Good players don't just move all in with the nuts, good players maximize value when they know they've got a better hand and he thinks he's got you beat based on the action. It's a clear cut call in my book.

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Why do you bet turn? What hands do you bluff with on turn? What's your calling range otr if you fold FH? Why can't he turn A8 into a bluff otr? What do you want to get value by betting turn+river?

I like the turn bet. V is obv btn here which, to me (given read of borderline LAGgy), widens the range he’s 3! with. Betting the turn is also consistent with the story we’re telling. (UTG 4x open, calling a 3! OOP) That A should be hitting our range more frequently than not. I bet the turn hoping to charge the random 4’s and 8’s a premium, in addition to extracting value from 67, A6-AK. (A6/7 are admittedly possible holdings in V’s range, but I think due to the flop 3!, the occurrences are quite infrequent)

The river is a clear call. This is so often AK, AQ, and even A8, I’m also not at all surprised to see 89 here thinking he’s creating a crying call situation for some AK/AQ combo (esp at 2/5 live). I’m pretty shocked when we lose, even though every once in a while we’re going to see quad A/runner runner Aces full. If I had to guess though, both of those occur less than 10% of the time total. I’m snapping.

I agree with the latter part. Don't really think that bluffs are frequently Ax but usually 78/68 etc that chose to not bet the flop.

But random 4x/8x bet the flop more often than not. There shouldn't be a ton of combos A6-AQ but lots of those will bet or have 0% equity vs our hand. We're beat by 3 combos ott that need to be discounted for, given the flop action. Hence, why not x/r?

Results please?

You bet the turn, and the river so if I was the Villian I would put you on a hand like AK or AQ, and jam the river hoping you would call with trips or an underfull. The problem here is all you block is A5. So it’s easy for the Villian to have A7, A6, 77, or 66. I think it’s less likely he has AA, but not impossible. This quick jam seems like pure value, and I’m leaning more toward A7 where your opponet knows you can’t have AA, because he holds the other A, and any other value hand you bet the turn and river with, he has crushed. I hate to say Fold, but I don’t think he’s bluffing given the turn and river action.

Couldn't help but remember this scenario (part of Otb's 500NL Zoom minichallenge, found on page 2 for reference)

Hero (BTN): $537.20 (107.4 bb)
SB: $1,056.28 (211.3 bb)
BB: $482.46 (96.5 bb)
UTG: $591.17 (118.2 bb)
MP: $500 (100 bb)
CO: $500 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with 5 5
UTG raises to $10, MP folds, CO calls $10, Hero calls $10, SB calls $7.50, BB calls $5

Flop: ($50) A 5 K (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, CO bets $25, Hero calls $25, SB calls $25, 2 folds

Turn: ($125) Q (3 players)
SB checks, CO checks, Hero bets $82.25, SB calls $82.25, CO calls $82.25

River: ($371.75) Q (3 players)
SB bets $115, CO raises to $230, Hero folds, SB calls $115

Spoiler:
Results: $831.75 pot ($2.80 rake)
Final Board: A 5 K Q Q
Hero mucked 5 5 and lost (-$117.25 net)
SB showed Q K and won $828.95 ($481.70 net)
CO showed A 4 and lost (-$347.25 net)



1st post F*** Yeh!

pretty bad feeling folding this, but doesn't seem like you beat anything he's willing to shove with.

Isn't that why it would be a great spot to bluff?

I'm most likely wrong since the stakes I play are smaller but its talking to better players that we learn, why is villain not shoving AK? Our hand seems pretty disguised to me, we used the first A to start barreling and barreled on the 2nd ace, can't we be on AQ, AJs, A10s here? Can't SB be shoving 89s here?

We have to put 1440$ to win a 4000$pot, we have to be right 36% of the time, assuming villain does this with all AK combos, 89s, A7s, A6s and A5s, AA, 77, 66, its 8+4+2+2+1+1+3+3 = 24, we beat AK + 89s = 12, so we beat 12/24, we beat 50% of his range, but I might be wrong on my assumptions since very good regs on this stakes might not shove AK and 89s, which is where the big question lies.

BTW, if our opponent knows we are folding straights and all non fh aces here isnt he shoving alot wider here?

They are 400bb effective at the start of the hand and solid lag rips in 360 bb on the turn against a range that could be all underfulls, maybe A fulls and potentially some AK. Doubt AK is going to take that line. 89 might.

I mean, yeah we are this deep but the open is for 4x and the 3bet is for 18x, if these are standard sizings and don't really narrow ranges down as much as they should then this is more like 150bb deep online play where it goes 2.3x/7.2x 3bet.

We can't really be beat here unless villain did a goofy play somewhere. 66/77 often flat pre and almost certainly bet the flop, AA almost certainly bets the flop and is only one combo by the river, we block A5s heavily (maybe even entirely depending on what suits are on board) so for us to be beat here villain had to 3bet pre with A6 or A7 and not bet the flop. Possible, but unlikely. I think we just have to pay it off even though I agree valuejamming AQ or maybe even AK is optimistic for villain.

I'd often c/c or c/r turn given we are so far behind rangewise on this card and we'll be stuck with JJ or AQ vs his turned AK a lot more than have a monster, but if you want to lead some hands 55 seems like a good one to do it with.