Quote:
Originally Posted by Soepgroente
I mean, yeah we are this deep but the open is for 4x and the 3bet is for 18x, if these are standard sizings and don't really narrow ranges down as much as they should then this is more like 150bb deep online play where it goes 2.3x/7.2x 3bet.
We can't really be beat here unless villain did a goofy play somewhere. 66/77 often flat pre and almost certainly bet the flop, AA almost certainly bets the flop and is only one combo by the river, we block A5s heavily (maybe even entirely depending on what suits are on board) so for us to be beat here villain had to 3bet pre with A6 or A7 and not bet the flop. Possible, but unlikely. I think we just have to pay it off even though I agree valuejamming AQ or maybe even AK is optimistic for villain.
I'd often c/c or c/r turn given we are so far behind rangewise on this card and we'll be stuck with JJ or AQ vs his turned AK a lot more than have a monster, but if you want to lead some hands 55 seems like a good one to do it with.
I guess I wasn't advocating for a call or fold either way.
I was just merely pointing out I don't think you can reasonably assume that all AK/AQ are spazzing this river.
I agree that I did not look at the SPR closely enough in my initial response re: the 360bb is not as surprising as it could be.
