hero is on the cut off and has a loose table which I was wanting to capitalise on in this hand. hero is deep with around 25k
Villain is on the BTN and has been playing standard TAG, not really getting out of line. villain has hero covered with around 35k


Preflop
hero has ThTs & opens for 300
Villain raises to 900
Hero calls

Flop 7s7c4d (pot 1950)
Hero Checks
Villain bets 1000
hero calls

Turn Jd ( pot 3950)
Hero donks for 2500
Villain calls

River is 4h (pot 8950)
hero bets bets roughly 20k and is all in
villain calls after pretty quickly and tables JJ


My question is did I get unlucky? I wanted to rep a full boat and think that if villain didn't hit his miracle jack he is folding all of his over pairs. is this too ambitious?

I think you needed to reasses your line after the turn, and maybe assess the player himself. He called the turn after seeing you donk bet when a J came out. The way this hand has gone, to anyone that doesn't themselves have JJ your donk bet looks pretty strong. And he still called you.

Also such a huge overbet on the river looks more like you're trying to blow him out of the water versus a value bet anyway. Do you have any real history with him where you showed a real hand like this? I think you missed the obvious trap signs here. Even if he had AA-QQ, there's still a chance he's not folding. You almost never have a 7 or 4 here. I think if you had bet something like 5500 or 6000, it would look more realistic and you would have gotten out much cheaper.

if this post isn’t a level:

i’m pretty spewy but your line is actually just insane. i’m not sure there’s a worse way to play turn and river than this. TT doesnt make any sense to me at all as an 2x pot jam OTR, and if we did for some reason want to use this line i feel like our best bluffs would block combos of 7x/4x

I would 4bet TT here CO bs. BTN.

Donning the turn makes no sense to me. If you’re going to turn your hand into a bluff, I think a x/raise line makes a lot more sense. I think your line looks FOS and if I’m villain I’m calling you down with any overpair

Pre - fine as you are deep. As he is TAG I'm going to suggest AQ+ and TT+ for his 3b range.

Flop - C/C fine, catches any bluffs with AK/AQ. That's all you beat post flop.

Turn - wtf. You have a bluff catcher or you're crushed vs JJ+, occasional split with TT. but you lead?

River - apply the ABS. I mean he's not folding an overpair, he might not even fold AJ on this board if his 3b range was that wide.

Certainly possible he folds Jx and overpairs on the river. But that doesn't mean your line is any good, as checking surely has higher EV than doing this under all reasonable assumptions.

1) As of the turn, your range is brimming with draws that would much prefer to take a bluffing line both due to more outs and less showdown value.

2) It's too early to turn your hand into a bluff on the turn when all that's happened is a BUvCO 3! and a cbet and a Jack rolled off. You honestly might as well turn your hand into a bluff on the flop with a x/r as that would at least credibly rep what you're repping. Crazy, I know, but the point is it's comparably crazy to what you did when you decided to turn it into a bluff before villain even acted OTT.

3) There's no reason whatsoever to think villain's range is capped, which should generally be the case if you're going to 3/4p donk turn and 2.5p shove river with a two-outer to the third nuts. Your range has more 7x than his so it's a good board to bluff on, but this line and sizing is letting him narrow his range down to one that can easily call without being exploited ... with the bonus of not repping 7x credibly and making your frequencies so ****ed (see above) he can definitely call without sweating it.

your play would of been good if the Td came on the turn instead of the Jd


Also TT OOP is very hard to play 250bb deep unless you are smashing the deck or the villain is bad. Might of just check folded turn.

Maybe 4bet pre vs a wide 3bettor.

This is FPS.

4bet preflop is an option but not necessary. If we call pre, flop should be a x/r somewhere between 30%-60% of the time and if called turn is an obvious check and probably call. River is chk/decide.

Your line is not optimal because you don't have enough 7x/44/JJ to justify turn lead/river jam and taking this line w/ TT leaves you very vulnerable to turn and river barrels anyways. What are you doing with 99/88? I assume the same thing if you do it w/ TT. What are you doing with QQ/KK? Always 4bet? Then you are losing and have to fold literally every time he 3bets you with any two cards, you call, he bets flop you call and he bets turn. You become very easily exploited because your range doesn't contain enough good hands that x/c multiple streets.

I wouldn't be surprised if the correct play is to check 100% on every turn after preflop and flop play given the board texture.

Think of it from his perspective, if he has AK/AQ, suited Ax,SC type hand, his decisions become super easy when you lead turn since you save him the money from having to bluff the times he's beat because he can just fold, and the times he has a really good hand like QQ+ he just has easy calls because you rep so narrow of a value range.

And WRT this, you don't need him to fold his overpairs. If he has an overpair, you are just trying to limit the amount of money you lose, not make him fold. You are trying to showdown against bricked over cards suited aces and SC.

In 3bet pots when your opponent has called invested on the flop and turn, getting them to fold the river is a tall order.