I'm the effective stack with $2.1k. 8 handed live 10/20 game 3 weeks ago.

UTG opens $60, Hero flats QsJs in LJ. Villain on Button calls, BB completes. Pot is $250.

Hero has TAG image, Villain is a TAG reg who perceives me as a tight nit.

Flop Qd 8s 3h rainbow. BB checks, UTG checks, hero checks. Villain bets $130. Folds to hero who calls. Pot is $510.

Turn Kc. Completes rainbow obv. Checks through.

River 9s. Hero checks, villain bets $320. Hero c/r to $1100.
Villain tanks for 3 minutes and folds.

Because of the UTG raise from a pretty tight standard UTG opener, I think he has AQ firmly in his range as a flat on the Button 70-80% of the time. So I was thinking he has 5-7 combos of AQ that he would play like this. Also he has a number of Kx double backdoor draws that he could bet on flop and check turn at a decent frequency. JT seems unlikely because I block one combo of JTss and he would barrel the turn with it almost 100% after picking up that much equity with no showdown value.

In real time I was thinking he's pretty capped here and I could blow him off AQ, off a chop of QJ, or maybe even a Kx. Also, its highly unlikely I risk getting re-bluffed because I left only $800 behind. A couple people told me I should of called, but raising here at a low frequency is fine. I like to follow my first instinct/intuition and in game it seemed like the natural play considering our dynamic of my perceived image.

Thoughts?

I prob woulda bet the flop with TP here in the LJ when it's checked to me but yea I like your thought process with the river bluff... u can't beat much with just calling down the river and since u block J10, you can better represent that you have the nuts in this spot.

if V really had a monster like a set he woulda bet the turn as well so I'm not sure what he's trying to get value from on the river here. he woulda 3b PF with AK so he obv doesn't have AK. Also you block KQ plus he woulda bet the turn with KQ as well so...

well played... the people who told u to just call are not thinking creatively enough IMO. the only hands QJ beats on the river are bluffs and super thin value bets like Ax with third or fourth pair which V would probably never bet OTR.

also I like ur raise size OTR... it's a very polarized sizing and with ur image, it looks strong.

the only thing that a really good poker player would have questioned is why did u check OTR if u have the nuts or even top two since there's a good chance that V would check behind you if he had a hand with weak showdown value, unless you were trying to induce a bluff from V, thinking that he was very weak OTR and has to bluff to win the pot.

Seems maybe a little spewy but I like it. Once he checks behind on the turn you can eliminate KQ from his range which is what Id be most afraid of. NH

One problem with turning this hand into a bluff is that it's close to the top of your calling range given the action leading up to the river. You rarely have KQ/AQ/88/33 as those should be betting flop most of the time. Better hands that arrive on river are JTs with BDFD (3 combos) and 98s BDFD (2 combos). If you're loose pre then Q9s is reasonable, but you said you're a nit so probably not in your range. Given MDF is 61%, I think you need to call more than 5 combos, otherwise you're raising with like 80+% of your defend range. I'm much more on board with turning T9s, T8s, even QTs into a bluff vs. QJs. Yes, he has AQ or Kx a fair amount here, but he can also have quite a few bluffs.

I agree you have nut advantage here, but that doesn't mean you necessarily should turn every pair+straight blocker into a bluff, IMO.

Good analysis from breakeven. It's really not clear villain is folding any better made hands except aq and also a chop. Normal villain ranges for cbetting this flop can presumably include worse 1p and some air.

Jt can also be discounted for flatting pre-flop this position at these stacks and not leading river. Idk exactly what hands hero should be flatting to turn into bluffs on the flop but probably not this one.

If i focus on the tag definition more strictly the xr seems even more optimistic since villain will have kq and sets and villain shouldnt fold either to your line so hero is mostly targeting aq exactly. Maybe ok if villain is overfolding and laying down kq/sets but still doesn't seem like a good recommendation for hero to take this line. Also, if op does determine xr is a good line, its possible overbet the river is even better and then we dont lose when villain makes conservative checkbacks.

were you planning on raising (if he bet) when you checked the river? Or did you think of it in the moment? I think either way is fine, just curious

I think the GTO and math guys have perfectly reasonable and probably correct points as to why this might be too spewy from a GTO perspective. But I think sort of broadly that people over-use GTO concepts in live poker. I think theyre obviously important and maybe even the most important thing to consider, but theyre not the ONLY thing.

I just think you have access to so much more information when you have history with someone and are sitting right across from them. So I look at this as an exploitative move...yes youre probably opening yourself up to further exploitation, just like the math guys say. But I dont think thats the end all be all. I think its rare that youll run into someone who can deduce this AND act on it. I think the meta conditions in which youre perceived as a nit, you only left yourself 800 (hard for him to re-bluff), the turn checking through, and how rare this line is (which makes him more comfortable value betting thin on the river) is all enough to tilt this play from maybe slightly -EV according to GTO to slightly +EV overall.

Just my thoughts...I dont play as high as this

Lol all this GTO EV talk is cringe. It’s a hand of live poker. Hero leveraged his image and exploited his opponent by bluffing with this hand. Given the tank it worked perfectly and hero was correct in his assumptions. Well played, but you already knew that.