Join Date: Aug 2011
Posts: 1,264
It's interesting to see how sophisticated the questions and answers were in the old threads compared to the ones of today.
Here is a good example from a 1997 thread on "Expectation and Deviation":
Q: In Gambling Theory and Other Topics, Mason Malmuth states, "Keep in mind that the strategies with the highest expectation are often accompanied by the highest standard deviation. This is simply because they are usually more non-self weighting than a less profitable approach, and this higher standard deviation may not be a price that all of us want to pay." My question is this. Is there anything in poker that can increase your expectation and lower your standard deviation?
A: The statement quoted is generally true in all forms of gambling. Those stategies that the expert player uses to
increase his earn are usually accompanied by higher fluctuations. If you are on a short bankroll or don't like
living on a roller coaster, it may be worth giving up part of your expectation - especially in the short run.
However, there are some instances where you can increase expectation and reduce fluctuations
simultaneously. In blackjack, the surrender option has this effect, especially in a shoe game where you are
using a large bet variation. In poker, the ability to read hands well will also produce this desired effect.
During the past couple of years I have been working with a friend who is an expert player, and we have been
keeping careful track of our results so that we can estimate standard deviations. A while back I posted some
of these estimates on the newsgroup rec.gambling.poker. They created quite a stir because they seemed to be
too low. We feel that the reason for this is superiour hand reading skills. Here is a current update of some of
those numbers. (Note: To preserve privacy, I do not give win rates or hours involved in each game. But be
assured that these numbers are from a very strong player who puts in his time at the tables. Also, the standard
deviation [sd] is per hour.)
Game: $15 - $30 stud, sd: $202.61
Game: $20 - $40 stud, sd: $347.80
Game: $30 - $60 stud, sd: $428.25
Game: $75 - $150 stud, sd: $1,189.46
Game: $20 - $40 hold 'em, sd: $286.39
