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What is a good way to deal with downswings and variance? What is a good way to deal with downswings and variance?

09-07-2021 , 12:07 AM
Been playing on Ignition for the last 3 years and decided to switch to GGPoker recently. Logged a few thousand hands and it seems I have landed in the "no luck" category on pokercraft.



In my two days on GGPoker, I've lost AA vs XX all-in preflop 8/11 times, chopping one time against AA. On a J32 board with QJ I get it in on the flop and I get snapped off by AK and he hits a K on both rivers when we ran it twice.
And then there is **** like this:




I have 601,442 hands tracked on Ignition and I did some analysis and while I won 3.2bb/100 on the site, I was 28 buy-ins below EV. Am I just cursed? Or are the numbers misleading? I am up so far on GGPoker but it is very frustrating because I felt like I should have at least doubled my $200 deposit instead of barely breaking even.

Last edited by Sheep86; 09-07-2021 at 06:47 AM. Reason: Please use image tags. The answer to your question is: porn.
What is a good way to deal with downswings and variance? Quote
09-07-2021 , 05:35 AM
Porn
What is a good way to deal with downswings and variance? Quote
09-07-2021 , 05:56 AM
porn
What is a good way to deal with downswings and variance? Quote
09-07-2021 , 05:57 AM
Porn
What is a good way to deal with downswings and variance? Quote
09-07-2021 , 08:44 AM
Fentanyl
What is a good way to deal with downswings and variance? Quote
09-07-2021 , 08:48 AM
Have healthy other life habits.

For me its yoga and working out.

Variance sucks but it is inevitable.
What is a good way to deal with downswings and variance? Quote
09-07-2021 , 07:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by yue
Been playing on Ignition for the last 3 years and decided to switch to GGPoker recently. Logged a few thousand hands and it seems I have landed in the "no luck" category on pokercraft.



In my two days on GGPoker, I've lost AA vs XX all-in preflop 8/11 times, chopping one time against AA. On a J32 board with QJ I get it in on the flop and I get snapped off by AK and he hits a K on both rivers when we ran it twice.
And then there is **** like this:




I have 601,442 hands tracked on Ignition and I did some analysis and while I won 3.2bb/100 on the site, I was 28 buy-ins below EV. Am I just cursed? Or are the numbers misleading? I am up so far on GGPoker but it is very frustrating because I felt like I should have at least doubled my $200 deposit instead of barely breaking even.
The numbers are misleading. Given that we're looking at 2 days of play, I think that this is an understatement. You can run bad for thousands of hands, maybe millions. **** happens. Not many people get raped by their parents, but statistically, it still happens. Sucks when it's you.

Moreover, losing with AA does not mean you need to lose a stack. So you also need to factor in the way you played the hand. If AI pre, whatever. If it's postflop, you might want to look at it again. There are sometimes significant differences in dynamics across platforms. If you want to crush, it's up to you to adapt.

When it comes to all in equity and such a small sample it's so easy to run bad. It only takes people folding the outs you need at that moment to crush you equity without you even knowing it.

To come back to the best way to deal with variance, it's easy and hard. From my own experience, you need to focus on objectivity;

- I made mistakes, I played bad. I deserve to feel like ****, and this is precisely what will make me better in the future. Lets work on it and regain confidence.

- After review, I can conclude that I did my best, and the line is profitable. It's just a hurdle and my bankroll can take it, until next time. It is what it is. Nothing I can do about it now.

Posting your hands will help if you are receptive to what others have to say. In poker just like in any discipline, it is easy to fool yourself into thinking that you took the right decision when you have nobody to confront you or open your eyes to another line of thinking.

Glgl

PS: 30BI below EV on 600K hands is peanuts. And it would be the other way around.

Last edited by howbathat; 09-07-2021 at 07:54 PM.
What is a good way to deal with downswings and variance? Quote
09-08-2021 , 02:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by howbathat
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No strat in BBV!

And the answer is porn.
What is a good way to deal with downswings and variance? Quote
09-08-2021 , 07:28 AM
Hentai
What is a good way to deal with downswings and variance? Quote
09-08-2021 , 08:22 AM
What is a good way to deal with downswings and variance? Quote
09-09-2021 , 09:33 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by FWWM
LOL!
What is a good way to deal with downswings and variance? Quote
09-09-2021 , 11:49 AM
Spoiler:
What is a good way to deal with downswings and variance? Quote
09-09-2021 , 12:26 PM
I run like death and have since COVID came.
What is a good way to deal with downswings and variance? Quote
09-09-2021 , 05:32 PM
Those 2 things are probably related somehow
What is a good way to deal with downswings and variance? Quote
09-09-2021 , 11:25 PM
Definitely working out
What is a good way to deal with downswings and variance? Quote
09-11-2021 , 04:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by howbathat
The numbers are misleading. Given that we're looking at 2 days of play, I think that this is an understatement. You can run bad for thousands of hands, maybe millions. **** happens. Not many people get raped by their parents, but statistically, it still happens. Sucks when it's you.

Moreover, losing with AA does not mean you need to lose a stack. So you also need to factor in the way you played the hand. If AI pre, whatever. If it's postflop, you might want to look at it again. There are sometimes significant differences in dynamics across platforms. If you want to crush, it's up to you to adapt.

When it comes to all in equity and such a small sample it's so easy to run bad. It only takes people folding the outs you need at that moment to crush you equity without you even knowing it.

To come back to the best way to deal with variance, it's easy and hard. From my own experience, you need to focus on objectivity;

- I made mistakes, I played bad. I deserve to feel like ****, and this is precisely what will make me better in the future. Lets work on it and regain confidence.

- After review, I can conclude that I did my best, and the line is profitable. It's just a hurdle and my bankroll can take it, until next time. It is what it is. Nothing I can do about it now.

Posting your hands will help if you are receptive to what others have to say. In poker just like in any discipline, it is easy to fool yourself into thinking that you took the right decision when you have nobody to confront you or open your eyes to another line of thinking.

Glgl

PS: 30BI below EV on 600K hands is peanuts. And it would be the other way around.
Thanks, needed to hear that. Looks like my luck is turning around!
What is a good way to deal with downswings and variance? Quote
09-11-2021 , 07:01 AM
change the way you look at variance. first and foremost variance is the nature of the game, as a poker player you need to fully embrace it.

variance is what makes you money, if there was no variance you would not be profitable or at very least your profitability would decrease drastically.

variance also prevents another great minds to joining the game. there are strong chess players who would be great candidates to became really good technically, but
most of them would never be able to stand variance long term to be able to became really good in the first place.


for me personally what keeps me going is my big passion for the game, but I know that for a lot players is all about the money.


glgl
What is a good way to deal with downswings and variance? Quote
09-13-2021 , 11:58 PM
Drinking and pills work always. Withdrawals are bad, but you can cure it also with alcohol and pills.
What is a good way to deal with downswings and variance? Quote
11-13-2021 , 04:24 AM
Little update, I finally got into 'bad run' category from 'worst luck' in 250,000 hands. The rakeback was the only thing keeping me afloat for a while until I went on a sun run in tourneys (which I have never studied). I went from $500 bankroll down to $280 playing 25NLz and 10NLz. Then binked a tourney for $4250 and cashed $1800 in another one. Withdrew $4000 and playing 50NLz with the rest. Currently final tabling the Big $27 on Stars which has me at normal luck according to PT4.
What is a good way to deal with downswings and variance? Quote
11-13-2021 , 05:32 AM
Do you want to know how to deal with good luck now?
What is a good way to deal with downswings and variance? Quote
11-13-2021 , 05:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by howbathat
The numbers are misleading. Given that we're looking at 2 days of play, I think that this is an understatement. You can run bad for thousands of hands, maybe millions. **** happens. Not many people get raped by their parents, but statistically, it still happens. Sucks when it's you.

Moreover, losing with AA does not mean you need to lose a stack. So you also need to factor in the way you played the hand. If AI pre, whatever. If it's postflop, you might want to look at it again. There are sometimes significant differences in dynamics across platforms. If you want to crush, it's up to you to adapt.

When it comes to all in equity and such a small sample it's so easy to run bad. It only takes people folding the outs you need at that moment to crush you equity without you even knowing it.

To come back to the best way to deal with variance, it's easy and hard. From my own experience, you need to focus on objectivity;

- I made mistakes, I played bad. I deserve to feel like ****, and this is precisely what will make me better in the future. Lets work on it and regain confidence.

- After review, I can conclude that I did my best, and the line is profitable. It's just a hurdle and my bankroll can take it, until next time. It is what it is. Nothing I can do about it now.

Posting your hands will help if you are receptive to what others have to say. In poker just like in any discipline, it is easy to fool yourself into thinking that you took the right decision when you have nobody to confront you or open your eyes to another line of thinking.

Glgl

PS: 30BI below EV on 600K hands is peanuts. And it would be the other way around.
Applause for an intelligent answer! It can be very a very daunting thing to deal with when you're dealing with shitty downswings. i find myself feeling like the lone ranger sometimes, and it helps to hear how badly variance has effected other players. kind of puts it in perspective. I also find that watching live poker and seeing some of the horrible beats that happen at, say the wsop main event, helps. Just watched a guy get knocked out with quad 4's. helps when the 'online is rigged bug" creeps into your ear. i walk to ease the stress and recently put a heavy bag up in the office I play in. take a bad beat, beat the **** out of the bag for awhile, take a walk, and back to it. guess it depends on how you're wired and your ability to deal with stress.
What is a good way to deal with downswings and variance? Quote
11-25-2021 , 07:54 AM
read a book explaining the concept of luck.
What is a good way to deal with downswings and variance? Quote
11-26-2021 , 08:33 PM
Not posting here for sure
What is a good way to deal with downswings and variance? Quote
11-26-2021 , 10:01 PM
Be Good. Be Better Than Efra.
What is a good way to deal with downswings and variance? Quote

      
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