Week-long prop bet - Page 4 - Poker Beats Brags and Variance

THEOSU --

I'm already 8-tabling and updating this thread on a laptop with a small screen, using a touchpad for a mouse. A webpage would be tough to swing.

But thanks for the interest and support.

--Nate

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01-14-2007 , 02:08 AM

#77

Esection

adept

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 1,018

gl man. for reasons beyond me, i had to play some 5NL and 10NL once. i feel you dude. just keep grinding it out.

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01-14-2007 , 02:17 AM

#78

gimmetheloot

banned

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 15,371

Nate, I would seriously consider getting into some $2 MTT's.

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01-14-2007 , 03:09 AM

#79

bearcats54

banned

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 73

for some reason i find this really intersting to follow. update?

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01-14-2007 , 03:28 AM

#80

Nate.

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 3,996

Quote:

for some reason i find this really intersting to follow. update?

$43.73 plus approximately $9 of equity at the moment. Been a while since I did anything approaching real hours online, so it's definitely taking some adjusting.

--Nate

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01-14-2007 , 04:27 AM

#81

Nate.

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 3,996

$55.43. Off to strategize for a while.

The guy who suggested $2 MTTs --

MTTs are tricky business here. I think that as long as I'm playing SNGs that I'm only barely "rolled" for, I can't be tying up money with them. But I think they might be useful later. Also, of course, in the unfortunate event that I'm looking to maximize variance later, they'll be important.

Noah --

Thanks for the offer, but I should be able to get all my application stuff sorted out tonight/later this morning.

Guy who suggested I cry mercy and negotiate a settlement --

Pfft. Enough negativity.

--Nate

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01-14-2007 , 04:45 AM

#82

ludacris

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 12,277

lol so lets say your BR is at $500 with little time to spare and you still only had the $300 bet on the line. Would you go flip your $500 to try and win? or would you keep it and just pay off the $300 for a net profit of $200?

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01-14-2007 , 04:55 AM

#83

0evg0

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 10,451

Quote:

im guessing nate started this with more than $5 to his name.

if it gets to that point, he'd be interested in what is most +$EV, which taking a $500 flip for $800(500+300) would be

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01-14-2007 , 04:59 AM

#84

Nate.

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 3,996

Quote:

im guessing nate started this with more than $5 to his name.

if it gets to that point, he'd be interested in what is most +$EV, which taking a $500 flip for $800(500+300) would be

Yeah, at that point it'd be catastrophic not to take the flip. Also, it would be possible for me to end up having to play it against FoxwoodsFiend, which would be hilarious and completely awesome.

--Nate

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01-14-2007 , 11:19 AM

#85

Nate.

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 3,996

***END OF DAY TWO UPDATE***

Account balance -- $53.43.

Results by game --

$1NL: +$2ish
$1.50+$.25 SNG: +$17ish
$3+$.40 SNG: +$14ish

Emotional high -- Noah admitting I have a chance.

Emotional low -- Discovering that I have to get all sorts of stuff overnighted to grad programs, and discovering that many places don't provide financial aid for their philosophy Master's students. If I put in fewer hours tomorrow, you'll know why.

--Nate

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01-14-2007 , 12:03 PM

#86

0evg0

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 10,451

Quote:

At this rate you'll finish with like 2.5 days to spare...

yawn.

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01-14-2007 , 12:30 PM

#87

Exitonly

Ray of Hope

Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 17,724

i think if you have the horus to put in, mtt's would be the best now that you have $50+ there aren't so many micro mtts running that you could worry about bankrupting yourself that way, but your edge is them per $ invested is SO much higher than in SNG's.

also HU sng's could be money too. at the $5 level you could seriously win like 75% of them.

i like your chances now

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01-14-2007 , 12:34 PM

#88

Nate.

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 3,996

Oh, I meant to post these, my complete (as far as I can tell) results from $.01/$.02 NL:

1,948 hands
22.13 VPIP
5.34 PFR (extreme variance reduction!)
+$17.54
22.51 BB/100
21.36 WTSD
$2.35 raked away

OK, to bed until football or possibly much later, if it feels like I really need the sleep.

Thanks for the support, everyone.

--Nate

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01-14-2007 , 01:47 PM

#89

eurythmech

banned

Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 6,275

Just wanted to say: this is awesome.

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01-14-2007 , 02:03 PM

#90

MasterLJ

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 13,684

Not going to lie, in the opening pages I thought you were going to fail miserably. Given that you've passed the $50 threshold, this seems pretty doable.

On the subject of you doing a last ditch $500 SNG, I do hope you've balanced out what is more +EV, winning the bet, or losing $500... I know you have $300 with the main bettor and some side action, but still.

Good luck man

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01-14-2007 , 02:06 PM

#91

NoahSD

Is Right

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 18,843

Quote:

Just wanted to say: this is awesome.

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01-14-2007 , 02:11 PM

#92

bobman0330

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 24,234

Quote:

On the subject of you doing a last ditch $500 SNG, I do hope you've balanced out what is more +EV, winning the bet, or losing $500... I know you have $300 with the main bettor and some side action, but still.

If nate has ~$500, he stands to net $200 by staying pat, and $1300 by playing the SNG. So he's risking $200 to win $1100, I don't see how it could ever be correct not to play it.

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01-14-2007 , 02:14 PM

#93

FoxwoodsFiend

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 7,146

Quote:

If nate has ~$500, he stands to net $200 by staying pat, and $1300 by playing the SNG. So he's risking $200 to win $1100, I don't see how it could ever be correct not to play it.

I just woke up, so maybe I'm missing something, but aren't all these numbers hideously wrong?

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01-14-2007 , 02:33 PM

#94

mike22nc

newbie

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 35

[/quote]

I just woke up, so maybe I'm missing something, but aren't all these numbers hideously wrong?

[/quote]

win--$1000 for winning the HU sng + $300 for winning the bet =$1300

lose-- $-300

stay at $500 = +$200 since he would lose the bet

In reality, he'd be putting up $800 to win $800, but if he doesn't he automatically loses $300 of what he won.

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01-14-2007 , 02:47 PM

#95

bearcats54

banned

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 73

yeah he also has that 100 dollar bet that he is getting 1 to 1.3 or something on so that makes it even better to play the HU sng

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01-14-2007 , 02:55 PM

#96

0evg0

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 10,451

Nate, I just put $50 on you.

win plz

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01-14-2007 , 02:56 PM

#97

bobman0330

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 24,234

Quote:

If nate has ~$500, he stands to net $200 by staying pat, and $1300 by playing the SNG. So he's risking $200 to win $1100, I don't see how it could ever be correct not to play it.

I just woke up, so maybe I'm missing something, but aren't all these numbers hideously wrong?

Sure are. Risking 500 to win 1100 is more like it.

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01-14-2007 , 09:58 PM

#98

plusEVdg

enthusiast

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 63

I seriously hope you are successful, this could turn into one of the best threads ever, especially to a new online player with a limited bankroll to see exactly how they should take the steps to go from 50 to 1K.

You are the man, every time you lose a pot, god kills a kitten and a baby so don't f*uck up.

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01-14-2007 , 10:09 PM

#99

Nate.

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 3,996

Quote:

All right! Now this was the motivation I needed.

Going in I thought that 5 to 50 was going to be hardest stage. So if I don't make it now, I'll probably be more annoyed than if I just never recovered from $2 and busted.

Oh, and it feels arrogant to even mention this, but if anyone wants the complete hand histories from this thing (win or lose) after it's done, just ask.

--Nate