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Variance and Venting Variance and Venting

05-14-2022 , 10:41 AM
I don't know if this was a particularly bad beat, but I left just feeling really annoyed at the whole situation.

I'm a fairly new 1/3 player and ended up at the tail end of this session with around a $200 stack (had bought in 300) surrounded by massive stacks, guys who had a few too many to drink, and endless straddles and 3-betting. The table was super splashy, and I resolved to just wait it out, get a premium hand, and go with it to get above even before I cashed out.

After being card dead and folding a bunch of medium-strength hands out of position (e.g. KQo in the small blind -- first to act on a button straddle) I had an extremely nitty image, to the point that one of the drunks called me out for not playing any hands.

Finally I picked up TT in the HJ. There was a button straddle, and one of the blinds completed, maybe there was another limp, don't remember. The LJ, 40-something white guy in a hoodie, who wasn't particularly loose but really amped up the aggression in response to the table dynamics, opened to 30.

I 3-bet to 95. Folds around to the LJ who comments that I must really have a strong hand, but he's already cracked Kings once tonight, so he's going to take a shot and calls. I resolved that I was jamming on any low flop.

(~200) Flop 7c 6s 4c

V checks. I jam, per the plan, for 102. He asks again if I have Kings. Finally he says "I want to see. I'm gonna need runner runner clubs" and calls, showing Ac.

The runout was Qc (ugh), but then a safe 9d (yay). He didn't get his clubs.

I show my TT. He flips over his other card, a Q, and says "oh, I got there". I bust and leave.

Based on my actual hand (TT), I was about 72% to win when I jammed and his call of the all-in was borderline/OK given the pot odds. If I had what he thought I did (KK), he would have been about 18% to win and the call would not have been remotely profitable.

I feel like I played this hand reasonably well, executed my plan in tough circumstances as a new player at an uncomfortable table with minimal stack depth, and not only didn't get rewarded for it, but got low-key slow-rolled to boot. Awful taste in my mouth.
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05-17-2022 , 04:50 PM
Sorry, but this is totally standard. I see it happen all the time. Still sorry for your loss, though.

Last edited by Javanewt; 05-17-2022 at 04:57 PM.
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05-18-2022 , 02:44 PM
Don’t play different to try and get even imo. If these games are uncomfortable for you I recommend moving down in stakes.
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05-18-2022 , 05:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by KnoxKnoxJoke
Don’t play different to try and get even imo. If these games are uncomfortable for you I recommend moving down in stakes.
Well, being 1/3, there's not much lower in stakes.

The problem was, it was playing like 1/3/6 and it was too late for a table change. With my stack size I had effectively 30-ish BBs, so pretty much any premium hand was going to be 3-bet pre and then jam the flop.
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05-18-2022 , 05:58 PM
Yeah that game sounds high winrate high standard dev / variance. Might be worth looking for a game that plays smaller.
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05-29-2022 , 09:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AceDeuceSuited
Well, being 1/3, there's not much lower in stakes.

The problem was, it was playing like 1/3/6 and it was too late for a table change. With my stack size I had effectively 30-ish BBs, so pretty much any premium hand was going to be 3-bet pre and then jam the flop.
I encounter this all the time. It's a very high variance table basically playing at a higher limit with 1/3 blinds. I like to pick up from these types of tables and find another table. It also took me a while but I no longer play as if I am "stuck". I leave when my session is over regardless of what my win rate is, I have found chasing from behind is not nearly as +EV as playing rested and prepared.
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