Variance: 5-card vs 7-card probabilities
07-08-2011
, 04:02 AM
Hi folks,
I would really appreciate clarification on an issue... I have seen two different sets of statistical odds for making the 10 basic hands that are possible in poker; specifically in No-Limit Texas Hold'em. The first formula only employs the best 5 out of 7 cards in it's equation, while the other employs all 7 cards. I think I may have resolved my own confusion, but would appreciate a double-check from all you pros out there. Which formula is supposed to be used in NL Hold’em?
The math equations:
-------------------------
5-card formula:
http://people.math.sfu.ca/~alspach/comp18/
7-card formula:
http://people.math.sfu.ca/~alspach/comp20/
I am INCLINED to believe that addressing all 7 cards in the formula is probably much more accurate, but then I get the feeling that perhaps those calculations are only used in a 7-card stud type variation of poker? On top of that I started flunking math after grade 10 so what'do I know?
I have been freerolling on FullTilt (seems they are shut down again), and PartyPoker for about 2 weeks to gather data using PokerTracker 3.0 (my PokerStar hand histories were accidentally deleted =( when I was messing around with the re-installation). I KNOW I have a VERY SMALL sample size of around 6,600 hands thus far, but this will obviously continue increasing with time, and it IS yielding some info. I have attached an excel screen cap that might explain this better.
Anyway, when I run some basic division calculations to find the percentages that I am experiencing on each site the hole cards frequencies seem to match up just fine. I was able to figure this out directly in Poker Tracker, and they DO seem totally random… BUT the stats seem to get out-of-whack when I combine the 5 additional community cards that are dealt (under the 5-card formula).
So again… I suppose I am correct for using the 7-card formula stats (as there are LOTS of formulas out there, and I am just trying to find out where along my variance curve I may be at the moment).
Thanks!
I would really appreciate clarification on an issue... I have seen two different sets of statistical odds for making the 10 basic hands that are possible in poker; specifically in No-Limit Texas Hold'em. The first formula only employs the best 5 out of 7 cards in it's equation, while the other employs all 7 cards. I think I may have resolved my own confusion, but would appreciate a double-check from all you pros out there. Which formula is supposed to be used in NL Hold’em?
The math equations:
-------------------------
5-card formula:
http://people.math.sfu.ca/~alspach/comp18/
7-card formula:
http://people.math.sfu.ca/~alspach/comp20/
I am INCLINED to believe that addressing all 7 cards in the formula is probably much more accurate, but then I get the feeling that perhaps those calculations are only used in a 7-card stud type variation of poker? On top of that I started flunking math after grade 10 so what'do I know?
I have been freerolling on FullTilt (seems they are shut down again), and PartyPoker for about 2 weeks to gather data using PokerTracker 3.0 (my PokerStar hand histories were accidentally deleted =( when I was messing around with the re-installation). I KNOW I have a VERY SMALL sample size of around 6,600 hands thus far, but this will obviously continue increasing with time, and it IS yielding some info. I have attached an excel screen cap that might explain this better.
Anyway, when I run some basic division calculations to find the percentages that I am experiencing on each site the hole cards frequencies seem to match up just fine. I was able to figure this out directly in Poker Tracker, and they DO seem totally random… BUT the stats seem to get out-of-whack when I combine the 5 additional community cards that are dealt (under the 5-card formula).
So again… I suppose I am correct for using the 7-card formula stats (as there are LOTS of formulas out there, and I am just trying to find out where along my variance curve I may be at the moment).
Thanks!
07-08-2011
, 04:04 AM
07-08-2011
, 09:41 AM
