Okay - I'll admit I don't know everything there is to know about variance in Sit N Go's, but I've been playing the Sit N Go's over the Betcoin Client, which connects to the Winning Poker Network. Playing $1.50's & $3's full ring regular/turbos and 6max regulars. I've been playing poker for a while and literally every time I fire up these sit n go's I run incredibly bad.

I'm also aware that it's hard to distinguish cognitive biases from probable improbabilities, so what I decided to do - is get a statistically significant sample size and figure out how much below EV I'm running.

What do I need for this? Poker Tracker 4? And how many sit n go's must I play to say "hey there's something wrong going on here"? Also, would this be possible or what problems might I have in trying this?

Thanks.

If you stopped here this would've been a fine post

I figured I'd get some smart ass remark. What am I doing? Asking an honest question about how to go out and validate this, admitting at the same time I may be incorrect.

This is why 2+2 forums are ****. If you have nothing of merit to contribute to my thread, then don't post anything.

Ok, here's whats wrong with you... (list not all inclusive)

1. No matter what your sample size, it can always be variance and not necessarily rigged software. It is theoretically possible to lose 100 consecutive 80/20 hands and the site still not be rigged.
2. You need to get your hands on the source code for the site itself, the client used to connect, and the RNG that handles the "shuffle" and have it analyzed to verify rigged software, this is the only way to "prove" that this site is not fair.
3. You post here thinking anyone will help you, all we really do here is mercilessly ridicule those who feel cheated by online poker sites. If you really feel this way, then quit, its the only way to win.
4. You think the site may be rigged yet you still want to play more SnG's to try to prove some improvable theory?

1. No matter what your sample size, it can always be variance and not necessarily rigged software. It is theoretically possible to lose 100 consecutive 80/20 hands and the site still not be rigged.

True, but there comes a point in which it's logical to create a belief in it. That's the same with any belief. Once you have enough evidence in support of a true conclusion, you're able to create "knowledge" of something, or a justified true belief.

You don't have to have "absolute knowledge" that the belief is true, just enough evidence in support that its truth is probably correct. I think in math there's a name for this, I know in psychology inferential statistics it's called "p value",you're able to reject the null hypothesis (no results were found) if it's probability of being false is 5%. You can conclude then that your results were statistically significant (justified true belief that the site is rigged).

So, if you flip a coin a certain amount of times and get heads, eventually they'll be a number you reach, whether it's 5, 10, 20, or 1,000 that you can conclude that something more than an incredibly improbable event is occurring. For instance, if I flipped a coin 5,000 times and each time it was heads, I'd conclude that this is not an improbable event, but there is something about this coin that makes heads more likely.


2. You need to get your hands on the source code for the site itself, and the RNG that handles the "shuffle" and have it analyzed to verify rigged software, this is the only way to "prove" that this site is not fair.

Sure, you can prove it that way. As I'm not able to do this, I'm only able to look at the evidence. I use "prove" in my OP more in the general sense of the word, the everyday way people throw this word around, which would be defined as "reasonable certainty".


3. You post here thinking anyone will help you, all we really do here is mercilessly ridicule those who feel cheated by online poker sites. If you really feel this way, then quit, its the only way to win.

I figured 1 out of 5 people who post here may actually be able to steer in me in the direction of what a large enough sample size my be and what software would be good to track this with.

4. You think the site may be rigged yet you still want to play more SnG's to try to prove some improvable theory?

I think the site could be rigged, in all likelihood, it probably isn't. Either way, I'll learn some useful stuff about sit n go variance in the course of figuring it out.

Okay now that the bull**** is out of the way, anyone have any useful advice?

you need a null hypothesis

^I survived!

If you thought your girlfriend was cheating on you, how long would you stick around?

I've spent 20 minutes trying to figure out what to say. I was really excited when I read the post. But i kind of think of nailed it.

try turning it off, then back on. give it a minute to clear the memory

Always open shove the first hand of a sng or mtt, but only do this with bad hands. If you have a good hand open fold. This way the rng labels you as a fish and you will get a lot of help if necessary in the remainder of the tournament.

For cash games there are other ways to trick the rng. But I recommend to stick with tournaments only because it's a lot easier to make steady profits.

Lol

My null hypothesis is you're an idiot. I independently confirmed this hypothesis using a highly scientific process.

The "takes one to know one" scientific process?

I can verify this works. On Sunday I was playing in a 6max turbo, and after the min cash I was short stacked and disinterested. I shoved 23o and doubled up, then shoved something similar (don't remember the cards) again and doubled up again. The RNG took care of me after that and I finished 3rd. I think I would have won if I didn't start waiting for good hands again.

What the **** is wrong with you idiots telling everyone this on an open forum. This was supposed to be kept a secret.

How many people are going to know this now?

You ****wits should be ashamed.

Never cash out or youll get doomswitched

Always play til you bust

Weird things itt. I will call Mulder and Scully

Don't feel bad OP. Yes, people will flame you here, but the thing is.....shhhh....they're the ones that are in on it. That's WHY they flame you. It's misdirection, trying to make you feel and look silly when they're just scared you are getting too close to the truth.

So what you have to do is start linking 2 + 2 posters to the SNG $3 regs. Then filter for the results in your database. I bet you find that some of them are making like 2-3 bucks AN HOUR, day in, day out, using the cheat code provided by the site. Simply hunt them down and extract the code with pliers and chloroform. Hey presto, proved.

-1 view because I misclicked

this thread is rigged too OP, investigate that

hah

Op i have had same feeling when i play wpn, always getting bad beat when 80/20

Good luck winning with ak preflop, got in twice against super tight nit aq aj 1st one lost to a to a flush 2nd lost to j on river, I think they see how much is in your account and if your only got about 2bis for your stake it bad beats you, because it knows you will put more money on there rigged site.

Am only going to play on pokerstars as read there most trustworthy, all you saying no way its rigged need to google the site phill hellmoth was the face off, and before anyone says am a fish, am a winner on wpn but should be playing 1/2 know if site was fair..