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Old 10-19-2013, 06:29 PM   #1
OMGBarackObama
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TheDrunkLife SNE 2013 Propbet thread, 430K VPPs in 73 days

Over a group poker-dinner last night my friend Uzi (Bluff Deez Nuts on 2p2) and I reached an agreement for our long discussed propbet for whether or not I will make Supernova Elite for 2013. I am currently behind pace with 571,000 of the 1,000,000 million VPPs needed and the year having just over 2 months left (73 days as of this writing.) My results this year have been unspectacular to say the least.





Our wager is my $7k to pick up his $20K (a line of 2.86-1 in my favor.)

As per the terms of our bet, I am allowed to take additional action from anyone who wants to be against me. As of this writing Uzi is not looking for additional action. Other people ITT are obviously allowed (and encouraged) to bet friendly amounts on either side vs one another at any lines they like.

Some Backstory:
In 2012 I was the biggest winner in $300 Turbos (6max) and $200 Hypers (6max) on PokerStars. That said, I'm down almost 100K pre-rakeback this year. I am currently playing $30, $60 and $100 hypers and $100 and $200 turbos. I play anywhere from 6-20 tables at a time depending on how my brain is feeling, but I would say 85% of the time or more I have between 10-14 going. With my current stakes and tables I'm paying ~$135 in rake per hour.

Some Statistics:
My Screenname on PS is TheDrunkLife and my Sharkscope is unblocked.
428,689 VPPs to go
73 days left in the year
5,872 VPPs/day (avg)
$1067.72 Rake per day (avg)
Current estimate of rake paid per hour ~ $135
7.90 Hours per day every day of the year.

Our terms:
I am allowed to take on additional action. Obviously Uzi is aware that as the amount of action grows so does my incentive to put in hours.

We are both aware that this bet is physically possible; we are rather betting on if I will or will not do this. 8 hours a day of 14-tabling every day for 73 days straight is no joke. I have never done anything like this. Uzi and our mutual friends have watched me try catch up to pace this year while falling further behind. Early lines thrown out were as high as 5-1 against.

By me agreeing to bet, I am saying "I am going to do this." Don't bet against me. This is going to be grueling, but I'm just going to do it. I'm definitely scared, and I don't think I'm a lock by any means, but I wouldn't feel right about offering to take more action without saying that obviously I intend to get my ass down to work for the next 73 days.

All bets to be escrowed, our current bet is being escrowed by a mutual friend (TheGr8Str8.)

At all times, "The Spirit of the Bet" will be upheld. There will be no angle shooting or unethical activity on either of our parts, or anyone else interested in being involved. Uzi and I have tried hard to discuss any potential situations that could arise. Win or lose we are friends before this bet and plan to be friends after. I think he'll be proud of me if I actually win, and I know I'll have no one to blame but myself if I lose.

Any disputes during the course of the bet regarding the wager between Uzi and I will be mediated by our peer group who were present for the various discussions that lead to the bet (Patrick Leonard, Dan Clegg, Konrad Kowal, Alex Levin, Anthony McShane, Shane Wittes.)

Escrows and mediation for action between myself and other members of the 2p2 community or between other members ITT with one another can be handled by any party agreed upon my wagering parties at the time of the bet. I'm new to BBV so I'm not sure what's standard.

I am starting this bet with ~25k to play from. I am allowed to move around in stakes as I deem fit managing this bankroll. In the event that I am near busto I am allowed to seek a stake to play 30-100 hypers and 100-200 tubos (or equivalent games.) These are the stakes the bet was based off of. I am NOT allowed to simply get staked to play higher. If I were to bink and MTT or run super hot, on my own roll or a stake roll, then I would be able to move up.

*I plan to do this on my own roll. It is a goal of mine to never need to be staked again. This provision exists b/c neither of us want to see me homeless in the event the sky falls.*

Bet becomes VOID due to what are agreed upon as "acts of god" under "spirit of the bet." These types of things include but are not limited to: Stars being shut down or access being blocked by local government, Severe Illness to myself or Death/Severe Illness in the intimidate family or of any significant loved one.

The Wrap-up

My friends in the SNG community whom I've talked to have faith in me that I can do this. Most of Uzi and my mutual friends who see me on a regular basis IRL seem to think it's a pretty big sweat. Both Uzi, myself, and our peers think we have reached a fair line.

I will post regular (daily?) updates in this thread. I'm not sure how much I'll torment myself by checking results so it may be more updates on how I'm feeling ect. I may even do a videoblog on my own blog since that takes no time at all. I will definitely appreciate support and the social aspect of the bet since I will be sacrificing a lot from my social life to try and achieve this.

Finally, I am looking for small friendly wagers on if I can abstain for drinking alcohol until I have either reached Elite or 2013 has ended. Obviously this requires a measure of trust, but I expect much of the following of this thread will be done by people who know me personally. I bought a bottle of Dom Perignon that is sitting next to my monitor until it's time to pop bottles in celebration or to drown sorrows. I'm not some raging alcoholic, but I've never gone literal cold turkey (no drinks at all, even with dinner) for more than 3 weeks since age 17. I've never even tried, after all, my sn is TheDrunkLife

Uzi has his own propbet thread in which he will attempt to make 20K pre-rakeback at $50PLO & $100PLO in one month. We are hopeful that these bets and others will make our winter grind more exciting and motivate us all to be better.

If anyone is interested in betting against me for either drinking or elite please post offers. Otherwise thanks for reading and I hope people will follow along (and root for me!) Leggggggggggggggggggooooo!!!!!!!

Last edited by OMGBarackObama; 10-19-2013 at 06:36 PM.
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Old 10-19-2013, 08:04 PM   #2
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Re: TheDrunkLife SNE 2013 Propbet thread, 430K VPPs in 73 days

Boooooooooooooom

Edit: first
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Old 10-19-2013, 11:59 PM   #3
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Re: TheDrunkLife SNE 2013 Propbet thread, 430K VPPs in 73 days

Hope you make it
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Old 10-20-2013, 12:16 AM   #4
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Re: TheDrunkLife SNE 2013 Propbet thread, 430K VPPs in 73 days

When is the deadline for other bets? (Couldn't find it if you mentioned it). Also you mean- immediate family, not intimidate family.
Gl
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Old 10-20-2013, 01:34 AM   #5
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Re: TheDrunkLife SNE 2013 Propbet thread, 430K VPPs in 73 days

gl op
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Old 10-20-2013, 01:56 AM   #6
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Re: TheDrunkLife SNE 2013 Propbet thread, 430K VPPs in 73 days

In on page 1

Gl OP
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Old 10-20-2013, 02:58 AM   #7
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Re: TheDrunkLife SNE 2013 Propbet thread, 430K VPPs in 73 days

good luck OP
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Old 10-20-2013, 03:27 AM   #8
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Re: TheDrunkLife SNE 2013 Propbet thread, 430K VPPs in 73 days

Pretty solid year
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Old 10-20-2013, 04:45 AM   #9
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Re: TheDrunkLife SNE 2013 Propbet thread, 430K VPPs in 73 days

GLGL sir, gonna be a tough challenge!

Needs a bit over 1k rake a day, and with his number of $135 in rake an hour, that leads us to a bit over 7.4 hours of grindin 10-14 tables every day!

Should be a fun one to sweat.
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Old 10-20-2013, 05:04 AM   #10
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Good luck
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Old 10-20-2013, 05:18 AM   #11
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Re: TheDrunkLife SNE 2013 Propbet thread, 430K VPPs in 73 days

GL Sir! But how much will you lose?
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Old 10-20-2013, 06:53 AM   #12
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Re: TheDrunkLife SNE 2013 Propbet thread, 430K VPPs in 73 days

gl budddddy. 2.5 months of 8 hour shifts, id say lets lock it up now.
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Old 10-20-2013, 07:44 AM   #13
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Re: TheDrunkLife SNE 2013 Propbet thread, 430K VPPs in 73 days

i'm willing to bet on this
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Old 10-20-2013, 07:45 AM   #14
Bluff Deez Nuts
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Re: TheDrunkLife SNE 2013 Propbet thread, 430K VPPs in 73 days

Quote:
Originally Posted by Morphismus View Post
GL Sir! But how much will you lose?
lol, his initial graph is a bit misleading because it doesn't take into account all the RB he's made this year (he made SNE last year). So after you add in his RB, hes not down too much this year.
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Old 10-20-2013, 07:50 AM   #15
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Re: TheDrunkLife SNE 2013 Propbet thread, 430K VPPs in 73 days

LOL
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Old 10-20-2013, 08:04 AM   #16
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Re: TheDrunkLife SNE 2013 Propbet thread, 430K VPPs in 73 days

135/hour seems a pretty conservative estimate.. I wouldn't bet on this at evens. good luck!
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Old 10-20-2013, 08:37 AM   #17
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Re: TheDrunkLife SNE 2013 Propbet thread, 430K VPPs in 73 days

Quote:
Originally Posted by OurSurveySays View Post
Boooooooooooooom

Edit: first
Quote:
Originally Posted by pitapita View Post
Hope you make it
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mold View Post
gl op
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hand Shaker View Post
In on page 1

Gl OP
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Originally Posted by fidstar-poker View Post
good luck OP
Quote:
Originally Posted by harrygehakt View Post
Good luck
Quote:
Originally Posted by Morphismus View Post
GL Sir! But how much will you lose?
Quote:
Originally Posted by parkert View Post
gl budddddy. 2.5 months of 8 hour shifts, id say lets lock it up now.
Thank you for all the support
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Old 10-20-2013, 08:52 AM   #18
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Re: TheDrunkLife SNE 2013 Propbet thread, 430K VPPs in 73 days

Quote:
Originally Posted by Haarlem91 View Post
Pretty solid year


Quote:
Originally Posted by Hero Value View Post
When is the deadline for other bets? (Couldn't find it if you mentioned it). Also you mean- immediate family, not intimidate family.
Gl
There really is no deadline. As days go by and I pay an amount of rake higher or lower than the avg amount needed then the line will change, but a bet can be made at any time so long as both parties can agree on a line give the days left and rake left.

For the no drinking I'm happy to get those booked asap, I've already started.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JoKon View Post
i'm willing to bet on this
Let's do it. Feel free to post proposed stakes/line ITT or by PM, however you'd like to discuss.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Spathic View Post
135/hour seems a pretty conservative estimate.. I wouldn't bet on this at evens. good luck!
$135/hour just actually is the amount I've been paying with my current stake distribution. If you take a look at my yearly volume, my most played game is $30 hypers. I'm playing a lot of $60s and $100 turbo atm, but relatively few $100s and very few $200 turbo. I have more stringent table selection criteria for my higher buyin games, I also play less tables the higher my ABI. This is how I personally manage my finances. It is a valid point that my willingness to ease up my table selection and play some tougher lineups rather than playing lower stakes will shift as it becomes more profitable for me based on my wager. That said, as stated in the OP, I'm not looking to bust my roll or be irresponsible in the stakes I play.
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Old 10-20-2013, 08:54 AM   #19
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Re: TheDrunkLife SNE 2013 Propbet thread, 430K VPPs in 73 days

interesting, subbed for this!
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Old 10-20-2013, 09:00 AM   #20
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Re: TheDrunkLife SNE 2013 Propbet thread, 430K VPPs in 73 days

Quote:
Originally Posted by OMGBarackObama View Post
$135/hour just actually is the amount I've been paying with my current stake distribution. If you take a look at my yearly volume, my most played game is $30 hypers. I'm playing a lot of $60s and $100 turbo atm, but relatively few $100s and very few $200 turbo. I have more stringent table selection criteria for my higher buyin games, I also play less tables the higher my ABI. This is how I personally manage my finances. It is a valid point that my willingness to ease up my table selection and play some tougher lineups rather than playing lower stakes will shift as it becomes more profitable for me based on my wager. That said, as stated in the OP, I'm not looking to bust my roll or be irresponsible in the stakes I play.
im sorry but this is bull****. Let alone the fact that you get an extra bonus if u make it this year, you get another 20k vs -7 losing if u make it + another 20k next year if u go sne to sne instead of sn to sne. If anything you should be very irresponisble in the stakes you play if making elite or not elite will be close.
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Old 10-20-2013, 10:12 AM   #21
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Re: TheDrunkLife SNE 2013 Propbet thread, 430K VPPs in 73 days

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Originally Posted by Mecastyles View Post
im sorry but this is bull****. Let alone the fact that you get an extra bonus if u make it this year, you get another 20k vs -7 losing if u make it + another 20k next year if u go sne to sne instead of sn to sne. If anything you should be very irresponisble in the stakes you play if making elite or not elite will be close.
That's part of the 'spirit of the bet' clause which states that he will use his best moral judgement in order to make sure that the scenario you brought up does not happen, meaning that he will continue to play the normal stakes that he is playing, unless he happens to build up a roll and has what would be termed 'natural progression' occur with his roll.
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Old 10-20-2013, 10:20 AM   #22
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Re: TheDrunkLife SNE 2013 Propbet thread, 430K VPPs in 73 days

what i say would be true even if the bet wasnt there tbh but okay
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Old 10-20-2013, 12:29 PM   #23
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Re: TheDrunkLife SNE 2013 Propbet thread, 430K VPPs in 73 days

Intresting bet for sure, GL both of you. Will follow.
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Old 10-20-2013, 12:53 PM   #24
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Re: TheDrunkLife SNE 2013 Propbet thread, 430K VPPs in 73 days

I'd bet against you making a profit this year
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Old 10-20-2013, 01:00 PM   #25
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Re: TheDrunkLife SNE 2013 Propbet thread, 430K VPPs in 73 days

I made a video blog today before I started playing. I think it will be fun to track my spirits throughout the challenge. You follow them on my blog or on youtube. They're not going to be edited or anything, but I will record them in landscape mode in the future.

For those interested I played my first session of about 2 hours and 15 minutes. Was happy to have my first viditor to my grind cave during a session, and also firing "Awakening the Giant Within" on audible felt like a good choice. I fired mostly 100 turbos and 30-100 hypers. Paid $290 in rake ($129/hr.) Haven't checked results but gonna get back to work. Debating playing the extra-large Bigs today. Would be good to bink and it keeps me at the computer but probably won't bother. Want to get to bed at a decent hour and have a good routine/schedule.
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