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Old 09-22-2008, 11:54 AM   #426
Mikeal_DH
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Re: STOP OVERPLAYING POCKET PAIRS AND WHINING WHEN YOU LOSE WITH THEM!1!!1

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Originally Posted by Supwithbates View Post
hmm, who to believe: jman, who has won millions and maybe tens of millions of dollars playing poker, or Mike, who hasn't made enough to escape freerolls after 5 years of playing.

hmmmmmmmm

also its pretty easy to understand 6>2, but Mike has never been good at understanding even simple things and uses convoluted reasoning to come up with bad plays.
hmmmmmmmmmmm who to believe Jason,Jman and other fish or poker pros like Chris Fergusson,Skalansky,Mike Caro,and software like Pokerstove,which have made billions of dollars more playing poker collectively between all those pros,and poker stove,then jman and jason.


I will take what Chris Fergusson,Skalansky,Mike Caro,and Poker Stove says over jman jason anyday anytime.


Mike DH
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Old 09-22-2008, 11:56 AM   #427
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Re: STOP OVERPLAYING POCKET PAIRS AND WHINING WHEN YOU LOSE WITH THEM!1!!1

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Originally Posted by Mikeal_DH View Post
A value bluff is similar to a value bet.A person bets for value when they might probably be good,but are not sure,and so be a small amount,hoping they get called,with them ahead and winning,and hoping they are not beat if they are called,while hoping they are not reraised and forced out.


A Value bluff is where you make a small Value bet/Value semi bluff,for different reasons of a value bet.When you Value semi bluff,you are not sure if you are ahead or not,and you might be behind,so you value semi bluff hoping that they fold,so that you can take the pot down without a showdown,and hoping that if they do call,that your not beat and that you were ahead and you win.


A value semi bluff is a win win thing because if they fold,you win the pot without a showdown.And if they call,they might call with a lesser hand that u still beat,thus you still win even if they call.


And if they call and you are beat,u only lose a small amount.So by value semi bluffing a small amount,you leverage the chance to win either way with only a small chance of losing and even if lose,only lose small amount.


also the poker books like the full tilt poker book talks about the concept of leverage making small bets that pros do or use.

Thats why the pros value semi bluff a lot.


Mike DH
A bet is only a bluff if it folds out a hand that beats yours. If you expect your opponent to fold a lot but only hands that you beat, then your bet is known as a "thin value bet", except in this case its so thin that it only serves to put more money into a pot that you're behind in most of the time.

However I will say that the play probably does work in freerolls and 1$ donkaments because it serves as a blocking bet that allows you to see the next card cheaply fairly often, and it also probably serves as a bluff stopper in a lot of cases too. Just for your information, however, the pros would never make this play in the situation you described because their opponents are not so bad as to be exploited by such a ridiculous play, and the play itself has a negative expectation and is easily exploitable by anyone with half a brain.
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Old 09-22-2008, 11:58 AM   #428
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Re: STOP OVERPLAYING POCKET PAIRS AND WHINING WHEN YOU LOSE WITH THEM!1!!1

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Originally Posted by Mikeal_DH View Post
hmmmmmmmmmmm who to believe Jason,Jman and other fish or poker pros like Chris Fergusson,Skalansky,Mike Caro,and software like Pokerstove,which have made billions of dollars more playing poker collectively between all those pros,and poker stove,then jman and jason.


I will take what Chris Fergusson,Skalansky,Mike Caro,and Poker Stove says over jman jason anyday anytime.


Mike DH
you're not chris ferguson, you're not mike caro, you're not david sklansky, you're Mike DH and you do not speak for those people. Phil Galfond, however, does speak for himself and has already weighed in on the matter, and has been a consistent winner in the highest stakes (and is a better player than any of those that you mentioned). He's also a much better player than you, though that should go without saying...
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Old 09-22-2008, 12:04 PM   #429
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mikeal_DH View Post
A value bluff is similar to a value bet.A person bets for value when they might probably be good,but are not sure,and so be a small amount,hoping they get called,with them ahead and winning,and hoping they are not beat if they are called,while hoping they are not reraised and forced out.


A Value bluff is where you make a small Value bet/Value semi bluff,for different reasons of a value bet.When you Value semi bluff,you are not sure if you are ahead or not,and you might be behind,so you value semi bluff hoping that they fold,so that you can take the pot down without a showdown,and hoping that if they do call,that your not beat and that you were ahead and you win.


A value semi bluff is a win win thing because if they fold,you win the pot without a showdown.And if they call,they might call with a lesser hand that u still beat,thus you still win even if they call.


And if they call and you are beat,u only lose a small amount.So by value semi bluffing a small amount,you leverage the chance to win either way with only a small chance of losing and even if lose,only lose small amount.


also the poker books like the full tilt poker book talks about the concept of leverage making small bets that pros do or use.

Thats why the pros value semi bluff a lot.


Mike DH
Books and programs get you no where. I read souls and tell what you have. Its a 6th sense, some people have most dont. Id prefer 89s and win a massive pot compared to a small one with aces. Its rare that aces win massive pots
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Old 09-22-2008, 12:15 PM   #430
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Re: STOP OVERPLAYING POCKET PAIRS AND WHINING WHEN YOU LOSE WITH THEM!1!!1

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Originally Posted by Supwithbates View Post
you're not chris ferguson, you're not mike caro, you're not david sklansky, you're Mike DH and you do not speak for those people. Phil Galfond, however, does speak for himself and has already weighed in on the matter, and has been a consistent winner in the highest stakes (and is a better player than any of those that you mentioned). He's also a much better player than you, though that should go without saying...

I never claimed to be those pros or to speak for them.I will still take what they the poker pros say and Poker Stove says over Jman aka phil galfrond.


What Jman is saying is wrong no ands ifs or buts about it.What he is saying is IMMUTABLY FALSE,NOT TRUE,NOT A FACT.


And while Jman or Phil galfrond(and thats if jman is even Phil Galfrond,which would be hard to prove or disprove)is apparrently a consistent winner at the highest stakes,and a better player than me,that just goes to show that one like jman aka Phil galfrond can be and is a consistent winner at the highest stakes with leaks and flaws in their game,and with them being immutably wrong no ands ifs or buts about it about things like what jman aka phil galfrond was saying that contradicts the immutably true factual right things the other pros and Poker Stove was saying,that wins billions more playing poker than jman aka phil galfrond because of that.


Mike DH
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Old 09-22-2008, 12:18 PM   #431
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Re: STOP OVERPLAYING POCKET PAIRS AND WHINING WHEN YOU LOSE WITH THEM!1!!1

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Originally Posted by Supwithbates View Post
A bet is only a bluff if it folds out a hand that beats yours. If you expect your opponent to fold a lot but only hands that you beat, then your bet is known as a "thin value bet", except in this case its so thin that it only serves to put more money into a pot that you're behind in most of the time.

However I will say that the play probably does work in freerolls and 1$ donkaments because it serves as a blocking bet that allows you to see the next card cheaply fairly often, and it also probably serves as a bluff stopper in a lot of cases too. Just for your information, however, the pros would never make this play in the situation you described because their opponents are not so bad as to be exploited by such a ridiculous play, and the play itself has a negative expectation and is easily exploitable by anyone with half a brain.

Sorry your wrong again as the Full tilt poker book and Chris fergusson say to do this play a lot depending on the situation.


If u doubt that,you really should go buy the book and read what andy bloch chris fergusson and other pros say in the book.


Mike DH
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Old 09-22-2008, 12:22 PM   #432
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Re: STOP OVERPLAYING POCKET PAIRS AND WHINING WHEN YOU LOSE WITH THEM!

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One of these days (soon) you're going to look back on this post, and realize how wrong, and silly you were.
Gogo power rangers.

This was obv. a level from the get go.
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Old 09-22-2008, 12:33 PM   #433
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Re: STOP OVERPLAYING POCKET PAIRS AND WHINING WHEN YOU LOSE WITH THEM!1!!1

Just for the record; Phil Galfond is jman28 not jman220 (OP).
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Old 09-22-2008, 12:35 PM   #434
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Re: STOP OVERPLAYING POCKET PAIRS AND WHINING WHEN YOU LOSE WITH THEM!1!!1

is this the continuation of the 10>6 thread? (aka 53 vs ak)
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Old 09-22-2008, 12:36 PM   #435
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Re: STOP OVERPLAYING POCKET PAIRS AND WHINING WHEN YOU LOSE WITH THEM!1!!1

prequel
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Old 09-22-2008, 12:40 PM   #436
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Re: STOP OVERPLAYING POCKET PAIRS AND WHINING WHEN YOU LOSE WITH THEM!1!!1

Yeah, this thread spawned the AK vs. 53 thread.
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Old 09-22-2008, 12:53 PM   #437
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Re: STOP OVERPLAYING POCKET PAIRS AND WHINING WHEN YOU LOSE WITH THEM!1!!1

this thread has given me faith in humanity, not the 'we will be a great race' kinda hope, more the, YES my life WILL be filled with watching such things as 'morans' who have no idea of the metagame or outs concepts of poker trying to argue with Jman, i mean he has 7k+ posts... we all know wat that means.
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Old 09-22-2008, 01:20 PM   #438
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Re: STOP OVERPLAYING POCKET PAIRS AND WHINING WHEN YOU LOSE WITH THEM!1!!1

Was this thread really started in 2005. How the hell is this one still going? And I need cliffnotes and #s of pages with key LOL moments.
Oh and Mike 10>6
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Old 09-22-2008, 01:23 PM   #439
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Re: STOP OVERPLAYING POCKET PAIRS AND WHINING WHEN YOU LOSE WITH THEM!1!!1

Wow I kind of enjoyed arguing with Mike until he started to post disertations on why I was wrong. That just made me want to beat my head up against the wall.

Mike we all know 6 is better than 2 right? Then we all know KQ > AA its really simple.
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Old 09-22-2008, 01:57 PM   #440
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Re: STOP OVERPLAYING POCKET PAIRS AND WHINING WHEN YOU LOSE WITH THEM!1!!1

all of poker is 50/50 Mike...you really need to learn this
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Old 09-22-2008, 11:03 PM   #441
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Re: STOP OVERPLAYING POCKET PAIRS AND WHINING WHEN YOU LOSE WITH THEM!1!!1

Mike is so out of touch with reality he thinks Chris Ferguson is a billionaire
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Old 09-23-2008, 12:13 AM   #442
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Re: STOP OVERPLAYING POCKET PAIRS AND WHINING WHEN YOU LOSE WITH THEM!

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Thank You. I'm just so sick of the whining on these boards "Waah Waah, I lost with AA to KQ." KQ HAD SIX OUTS TO IMPROVE IDIOT, YOU ONLY HAD TWO!
I'm not on here too much, so I don't know if this dude is serious. If so, I understand where all the $$ comes from in poker. Do you even understand the concept of an "out?" AK vs TT, for example: TT is ahead in the hand, it doesn't NEED an "out," AK must hit to win, hence the term "out." As in, "escape." Do you figure that into your elementary math?? So as long as I've got two live cards, I should be shoving my stack, according to your logic. Villian shows me AA prelop....I'm shoving with 2-5o because I've got 6 outs vs. his 2 and I'm a mathematical favorite!!
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Old 09-23-2008, 12:35 AM   #443
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Re: STOP OVERPLAYING POCKET PAIRS AND WHINING WHEN YOU LOSE WITH THEM!

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I'm not on here too much
Obviously...
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Old 09-23-2008, 01:23 AM   #444
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Re: STOP OVERPLAYING POCKET PAIRS AND WHINING WHEN YOU LOSE WITH THEM!1!!1

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Only a stubborn dogmatic idiot like you and Jman argues against this real math of pokerstove,sklansky chris fergusson mike caro,that wins billions of dollars in real money.

So after posting this post to clarify things to you.I am done.Its pointless to use logic and real correct math to prove u and jman wrong because of the stupid idiot moron dogmatic way to cling to your simple flawed math that stupidly moronically and idiotically argues against poker stove poker pros real math that wins billions in real money.


Mike DH
Wow! I had no idea that some people were winning billions of dollars at poker! I am shocked! Shocked, I say!

And I must certainly commend you on your fine use of proper English grammer and punctuation. It warms my heart to read such flowery prose, and to see words uncluttered by commas, proper spacing, and such.

Thank you for the edification.

Lee
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Old 09-23-2008, 01:40 AM   #445
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Re: STOP OVERPLAYING POCKET PAIRS AND WHINING WHEN YOU LOSE WITH THEM!1!!1

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Mike is so out of touch with reality he thinks Chris Ferguson is a billionaire
He also thinks PokerStove is a billionaire.
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Old 09-23-2008, 01:57 AM   #446
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Re: STOP OVERPLAYING POCKET PAIRS AND WHINING WHEN YOU LOSE WITH THEM!1!!1

op sn
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Old 09-24-2008, 11:03 PM   #447
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Re: STOP OVERPLAYING POCKET PAIRS AND WHINING WHEN YOU LOSE WITH THEM!

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As far as the math goes I will show you 2 ways of looking at each of the following:


Pocket pair vs overcards standard 88 vs KQ.Since 88 doesnt have to hit flop.Every card that doesnt help KQ to improve and helps 88 to hold up and win is a virtual out for 88.


Since there are 52 cards minus 18 cards dealt out in hand,at 9 hand table,18 from 52 is 34.Since KQ has 6 outs, the 6 outs are subtracted from 34,down to 28 cards.Minus the cards to come on board 5,because with each card that comes on the board,the whole situation changes and thw whole thing gets refigured out as far a chances to win go.So down to 23 cards.And if us the 2 4 rule of outs,u subtract 12 cards for 6 outs instead of just 6 cards for 6 outs.So down to 17.And you subtract the 2 burn cards.So down to 15 cards


So 88 really has 15 virtual outs to hold up and win to KQ's 6 outs.


15>6 6/15 or 6 divided by 15. So according to this,88 beats KQ about 60% of time all in preflop.

Mike DH
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Originally Posted by Mikeal_DH View Post

So according to that,KQ only really has 3 outs chance to win against AA.


Now if you take 52 cards subtract 18 dealt out cards at 9 hand table down to 34.Then subtract 5 board cards down to 29.subtract KQ's real 3 outs not 6 because of KQ needs to hit 2 of 6 outs to win,not just 1.down to 26. Subtract 3 more outs using the 2 4 system of outs.Down to 23.Subtract 2 burn cards down to 21


Thus AA has 21 card/outs according to the alternate definition of outs I put forth,that block outs of KQ,that dont help KQ to improve,and that helps AA to hold up and win, vs KQ's 3 outs instead of 6 outs because KQ has to hit 2 outs instead of just 1 out of 6 outs,and so really only has 3 outs.


21 > 3 3/21 3 divided by 21 = 14%(wow the virtual out system came pretty close to poker stove,sklansky,fergusson,Caro,etc etc)


Mike DH
Mike,

I genuinely feel bad that you're still confused by the maths when it's all fairly simple and has been repeated numerous times on this thread. But I'm not going to try to convince you you're wrong; all I want to do here is point out a mistake you make in your calculation system.

First post: 88 has 15 'virtual outs'. KQ has 6 outs. You say 6/15 for KQ to win. That's wrong.

The event space (i.e. all possible cards to come) numbers 21. So the probability for 88 to win is 15/21, i.e. in 15 out of those 21 possible events, 88 wins. Probability for KQ to win is 6/21 i.e. the other 6 events. So 88 actually wins 71% of the time here, using your system of virtual outs.

Second post: Same issue. Event space of 24. AA to win 21/24 of those, KQ to win 3/24 of those, according to you. So AA wins 87.5% of the time here, again according to your maths when applied correctly.

I really really hope that firstly you agree that I've applied the maths correctly here whereas your way was incorrect. Secondly I hope you take a look at the results your crazy system of virtual outs gets when applied correctly, especially saying that 88 vs KQ is 70-30, and open your mind to some of the basic and fundamental knowledge given for free in this thread.
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Old 09-24-2008, 11:09 PM   #448
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Re: STOP OVERPLAYING POCKET PAIRS AND WHINING WHEN YOU LOSE WITH THEM!1!!1

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op sn
ahhhahahahah
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Old 12-20-2008, 01:41 AM   #449
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Re: STOP OVERPLAYING POCKET PAIRS AND WHINING WHEN YOU LOSE WITH THEM!1!!1

Merry Christmas Morans!

Mikeal: I encourage you to repeat the second grade, reducing fractions is easy, you look for the lowest common denominator. KQ has six cards that makes improve (six actual cards, not virtual cards, this aint the matrix buddy). AA has 2 cards that makes it improve. Thats 6/2. You can reduce that to 3/1. That means for every four times KQ goes against AA, KQ will win three times, and AA will win once. Why is this so hard to understand? Honestly.

Also:

I am not Phil Galfond, but I did teach him everything he knows.

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Old 12-20-2008, 01:46 AM   #450
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Re: STOP OVERPLAYING POCKET PAIRS AND WHINING WHEN YOU LOSE WITH THEM!1!!1

epic b0mp imo
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